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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (7/16-18) | Space Jam 31.6, Widow 26.3, Escape Room 8.8, F9 7.6, Boss Baby 4.7

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3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 70m is normal for a recent Fast and Furious movie?

Yes. The previous one did 60M. The one before that was high 90s but still dropping from the afterglow of Walker’s death. 

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3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

We have no clue about how PA affects things like ancillaries to even call any of that extra profit lol. 

 

Even without PA, Disney was planning to add BW to Disney plus by October.

 

I think you guys are overestimating how much PA i going to impact the ancillary market.

 

BW is going to be free on Disney Plus in a couple months anyway.

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14 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

Come on people. This is a box office site, why have such amateur takes? Of course the quantum matters.

 

BW opened to more than Raya and Cruella made total. 

I think you missed a vital point of the argument.

 

No one is saying PA and piracy is not impacting the box office; in fact everyone knows the impact is huge. But why was Cruella and Raya brought up was more in terms of legs; where we can all blindly blame PA and piracy solely but conveniently forget that there are other factors affecting OW and legs as well - such as the quality / WoM of the film itself.

 

Again I would argue that if BW had a A / A+ cinemascore, RT critics score of arounf 90%, IMDB score of 7.5-range; similar to other MCU movies - it would have opened better and have better legs - with or without PA.

 

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4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Any predictions for next weekend?

 

Looks like both Old and Snake Eyes are getting 3,300+ locations. 
 

I’m thinking:


Old $15m+ (but very frontloaded if the rumours are true lol)

Snake Eyes $12m 

Snake Eyes is gonna tank for sure. Luckily Henry Golding is really talented so he should survive this "leading man in flops" phase of his career just fine.

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4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Snake Eyes is gonna tank for sure. Luckily Henry Golding is really talented so he should survive this "leading man in flops" phase of his career just fine.

I think he’s be a solid choice for the next Bond.

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6 minutes ago, wildphantom said:


I’m not ignoring anything. 
I get the short term promotion of IP to get subscribers, but with regards to Disney I don’t believe long term that’s why people will keep a subscription. 
In fact, I don’t believe virtually any subscriber would sub to D+ to be able to pay $30 to watch one movie. They subscribe and keep it so they can watch all the shows that dominate the conversation. 
 

Movies can do great business for studios using the existing model, and then go on their respective streaming services etc.  If they go day and date then they’re just throwing money away in my opinion. 
 

Everybody I know who would normally have seen BW in theaters and hasn’t, well they watched it for free.  So Disney went from getting guaranteed $ from a consumer to zero.  That does not sound like a great business plan to me, when long term getting these things for free is only going to get easier.  
 

Exclusive theater windows prevent this from happening. 
 

What they’re doing currently by putting the films online on day one would be akin to theaters just letting people in for free opening day. 
 

If you give your product away for nothing then how can you expect large numbers of your potential audience to hand anything over? 

 

Subscribing to Disney plus and paying a 30 dollar pay wall to watch one movie actually makes a lot of sense for individual families as it is actually cheaper for a family to do that then it is to go to the theater to watch it. And I am sure that a portion of the people that watched it through Disney plus did so for that exact reason. And lots of people tend to have a habit of keeping a subscription even if they don't really use it much. They keep it around just in case they want to watch something and it is there for them at a click of a button. I guarantee you a lot of people subscribed to the site strictly for Mandalorian and didn't really use it for much else than that (until perhaps the Marvel shows started coming on) but they kept their subscription that entire time just so it would be there for them if they wanted and they wouldn't have to go through the hassle of signing up again. $8 dollars a month is pretty affordable for people that have a consistent income.

 

Studios are trying to find a way to eliminate the middle man as well as making it more convenient for people to watch their products as people's viewing habits are changing and fewer and fewer people are going to the theaters with each passing year. As a poster said a couple pages back all these studios wouldn't be craving the streaming money if it was a bad business decision. No it isn't the best move for theaters but for the people who are making the films it is a way for them to keep a larger portion of the money as well as keeping up with people's changing viewing habits as a more significant portion of them are wanting to watch things at home now instead of going to the theater.

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Space Jam was quite frontloaded it looks like. Given that legs for the HBO Max movies haven't been very good it'll likely finish a bit below the (disappointing at the time given the hype that surrounded it) $90M total of the original back in 1996.

Edited by filmlover
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25 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Would it be better for Disney if BW had no PA and made 95m OW and dropped 60% this weekend?

 

That's like extra 10m in profit vs 48 m from PA.


The figure wasn’t just for domestic. 

It would have been better in my opinion as there’d be more people out there wanting to buy a ticket to see it. Instead most have paid nothing and already seen it. 
 

I get what you’re saying, but PA has offered a colossal blow to what this movie might have done all over the world. 
 

It is all an experiment though I guess. 
 

It would have made way more than 95 million without PA. 

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9 minutes ago, Borobudur said:
1 N Space Jam: A New Legacy Warner Bros. $31,650,000   3,965   $7,982 $31,650,000 1
1 N Space Jam: A New Legacy Warner Bros. $31,650,000   3,965   $7,982 $31,650,000 1
- (2) F9: The Fast Saga Universal $7,620,000 -33% 3,368 -281 $1,847 $154,838,955 4
- (3) The Boss Baby: Family… Universal $4,720,000 -47% 3,449 -239 $1,369 $44,641,675 3
- (4) The Forever Purge Universal $4,160,000 -42% 2,735 -323 $1,521 $35,910,710 3
Edited by Borobudur
They revised F9 number
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7 minutes ago, Felandria said:

I think he’s be a solid choice for the next Bond.

I've been tooting this horn the past two years. It's bonkers to me Golding's agents haven't pestered EON about this.

 

1 minute ago, Blankments said:

Huh I think snake eyes will easily top Old; marketing has been quite good for the former

Snake Eyes is literally the one trailer I've seen in front of every movie I watched this summer (aside from the local arthouse of course). Quiet Place, Cruella, Conjuring, Heights, Pig. Probably gonna be in front of Black Widow when I see it later today. It's one of the most ridiculous things I've seen in a long while when it comes to trailer attachments. For the record, Quiet Place 2 was the other movie that I got trailers for with just about every movie I saw, so maybe Paramount's onto something

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So another meltdown thread.

 

A little weird SP2 drop on saturday but 31M is good, especially considering the expectations of a huge failure few weeks ago. Could leg to 100M considering there wasn't much family movies coming soon.

 

And BW is also fine, 66-68% drop is acceptable considering all things. It's a good drop? No. It's a disaster? Honestly, also no, let's face the reality the movie doesn't have an excellent reception. The drop is not even so worse than other July MCU releases like Spider 1 or Ant Man 2.

 

I would like to see if the movie reach 100M on PA already but i kinda doubt Disney will update this.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Eric E Coyote said:

Snake Eyes is literally the one trailer I've seen in front of every movie I watched this summer (aside from the local arthouse of course). Quiet Place, Cruella, Conjuring, Heights, Pig. Probably gonna be in front of Black Widow when I see it later today. It's one of the most ridiculous things I've seen in a long while when it comes to trailer attachments. For the record, Quiet Place 2 was the other movie that I got trailers for with just about every movie I saw, so maybe Paramount's onto something

To be fair, Paramount doesn't have a whole lot to attach with movies at the moment. They only have 5 movies (Snake Eyes, Paw Patrol, Clifford, Jackass, Top Gun) on the schedule for the rest of year.

Edited by filmlover
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8 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

 

Subscribing to Disney plus and paying a 30 dollar pay wall to watch one movie actually makes a lot of sense for individual families as it is actually cheaper for a family to do that then it is to go to the theater to watch it. And I am sure that a portion of the people that watched it through Disney plus did so for that exact reason. And lots of people tend to have a habit of keeping a subscription even if they don't really use it much. They keep it around just in case they want to watch something and it is there for them at a click of a button. I guarantee you a lot of people subscribed to the site strictly for Mandalorian and didn't really use it for much else than that (until perhaps the Marvel shows started coming on) but they kept their subscription that entire time just so it would be there for them if they wanted and they wouldn't have to go through the hassle of signing up again. $8 dollars a month is pretty affordable for people that have a consistent income.

 

Studios are trying to find a way to eliminate the middle man as well as making it more convenient for people to watch their products as people's viewing habits are changing and fewer and fewer people are going to the theaters with each passing year. As a poster said a couple pages back all these studios wouldn't be craving the streaming money if it was a bad business decision. No it isn't the best move for theaters but for the people who are making the films it is a way for them to keep a larger portion of the money as well as keeping up with people's changing viewing habits as a more significant portion of them are wanting to watch things at home now instead of going to the theater.


these families you speak of that didn’t go to the theater (and I think the majority largely did btw), chose the cheapest option - FREE.  The PA worldwide figures tell you that. 


Why would families think D+ sub plus $30 is a good deal when they don’t have to pay anything?  

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Just to add into the BW discourse, I distinctly remember when Homecoming and Wasp both dropped into the 60s we had tons of doom and gloom and concern about these movies and their receptions. And from week 3 onwards, these movies stabilized and saw solid enough holds through the end of the summer.

 

I know people will argue PA and how it makes things different towards me, but day-and-date PVOD releases as well as early PVOD releases like Universal's haven't really impacted legs as much as people might think, so I am thinking, at least at this point in time, that Widow will stabilize itself, especially considering how quiet the next few weeks seem to be. I could be wrong, but I am hopeful here at this point in time. Please don't yell at me over this.

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