Weekend Thread (7/16-18) | Space Jam 31.6, Widow 26.3, Escape Room 8.8, F9 7.6, Boss Baby 4.7

[filmlover]

Old and Snake Eyes will likely make around mid-teens each next weekend. Joe Bell is also opening wide next weekend apparently but it would make very little regardless (it's about a depressing topic, has mediocre reviews, and Wahlberg's starpower has always been inconsistent).

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

So what is the real number for BW? Is it 25.6 or 26.5? 

25.6m but I don't get why Deadline has it at 26.25m , maybe they think Disney going to harsh for Sunday (-31%) or simply because they haven't update the article

[Mr Terrific]

How long can Disney wait on a decision about switching Shang-Chi to a PA choice?

(IDC except that I’m a Disney stan and I truly crave bigger theatrical numbers for the MCU.)

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Old and Snake Eyes will likely make around mid-teens each next weekend. Joe Bell is also opening wide next weekend apparently but it would make very little regardless (it's about a depressing topic, has mediocre reviews, and Wahlberg's starpower has always been inconsistent).

Wahlberg should just stick to starring in really fun dad movies (with obvious libertarian leanings) where he gets to go full Wahlberg. Not sure why he's acting in movies like Instant Family (which was pretty good tho), Joe Bell, and the upcoming movie that he gained weight for.

Edited July 18, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[TigerPaw]

4 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

How long can Disney wait on a decision about switching Shang-Chi to a PA choice?

(IDC except that I’m a Disney stan and I truly crave bigger theatrical numbers for the MCU.)

Really depends on the outbreak of Delta overseas and domestically within the next month.

 

Situation isn't good in many places.. will worsen before it gets better..

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, Mr Terrific said:

How long can Disney wait on a decision about switching Shang-Chi to a PA choice?

(IDC except that I’m a Disney stan and I truly crave bigger theatrical numbers for the MCU.)

Mid-august

 

They need a few weeks to see the growth of Delta before making a decision. But things are pretty bad, i doubt but wouldn't be surprised if they actually put it on PA.

[charlie Jatinder]

31 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

BW’s 2nd weekend is 150% of its 1st Sun, basically identical to SMH

Remove may be 1-1.5M for Ontario.

[TwoMisfits]

36 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

And some people are really ignoring the fact that foreign countries are in the middle of a fourth wave.

 

Even countries that never have problems with the pandemic are now seeing exponential growth in cases because of Delta. I see somewhere that Tenet have more screens available outside US last year than BW now.

 

And the cases are also growing fast in US too, so next 8 weeks could be very volatile and push box office down a little, and even hurt legs. All of this need to be considered every weekend because there's no normalcy yet, far from it.

 

But then, that's as much on Disney - if it opened BW in Asia when it was planned back in late April, it could have gone huge.  And there was no reason in May Disney could not have just opened day and date PA with BW, like it did in July...all moving to July did was put real competition against Black Widow much sooner (how few Marvel movies only are #1 for ONE weekend?:)

 

So, blame the studio as much as the circumstances, b/c they had other options and screwed domestic and international theaters when they moved so late...and now the move backfired for Asia...

Edited July 18, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Cmasterclay]

I saw some people do Top 5 of 2021 predictions in here yesterday and I was surprised to see that most of them left off No Time to Die, even below Black Widow....are we really expecting that to finish below 200m when even the shitty Spectre was able to do it? I feel like once the marketing ramps up and they play up the 60th anniversary/Craig's final sendoff, the hype will be there as long as it doesn't suck again. Unless there is some negative buzz about quality I've missed. 

 

Also, going forward probably until 2023 at this rate, all my box office posts will assume that COVID-19 becomes an endemic condition that impacts unvaccinated people with various spikes, and creates a series of patchwork mandates and restrictions for the next two years, keeping box office for non-streaming movies at 80% of what I would have predicted before COVID-19 with their level of hype and 70% if they have streaming option.

[John Marston]

Black Widow finishing below Fast 9 worldwide even if it releases In China 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Wahlberg should just stick to starring in really fun dad movies (with obvious libertarian leanings) where he gets to go full Wahlberg. Not sure why he's acting in movies like Instant Family (which was pretty good tho), Joe Bell, and the upcoming movie that he gained weight for.

He wants one of these in all likelihood:

 

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But then, that's as much on Disney - if it opened Asia when it was planned back in late April, it could have gone huge.  And there was no reason in May Disney could not have just opened day and date PA with BW, like it did in July...all moving to July did was put real competition against Black Widow much sooner (how few Marvel movies only are #1 for ONE weekend?:)

 

So, blame the studio as much as the circumstances, b/c they had other options and screwed domestic and international theaters when they moved so late...and now the move backfired for Asia...

I agreed May would be better. But back in the day everyone was expecting things to be better in July.

 

Delta spread worldwide after the delay, and i think no one was expecting almost half of the country to deny vaccines (US).

 

So i get why they made it, but definitelly didn't pay off.

[Madhuvan]

Anyways overall Box office is far from recovery , I don't know how big blockbuster movie will even make profit. 

Dune is going to be a major test for this. It will decide a crucial trend of what get greenlighted and what not for some years.

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I saw some people do Top 5 of 2021 predictions in here yesterday and I was surprised to see that most of them left off No Time to Die, even below Black Widow....are we really expecting that to finish below 200m when even the shitty Spectre was able to do it? I feel like once the marketing ramps up and they play up the 60th anniversary/Craig's final sendoff, the hype will be there as long as it doesn't suck again. Unless there is some negative buzz about quality I've missed. 

 

Also, going forward probably until 2023 at this rate, all my box office posts will assume that COVID-19 becomes an endemic condition that impacts unvaccinated people with various spikes, and creates a series of patchwork mandates and restrictions for the next two years, keeping box office for non-streaming movies at 80% of what I would have predicted before COVID-19 with their level of hype and 70% if they have streaming option.

 

I would say they should delay No Time to Die until next year to get a better release date and take advantage of the 60th anniversary 

[Madhuvan]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Black Widow finishing below Fast 9 worldwide even if it releases In China 

Not a big deal considering lower budget and 100m from PA.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Black Widow finishing below Fast 9 worldwide even if it releases In China 

+200M from F9 comes from China where they get only 25% of the money.

 

BW will be more profitable.

 

That is a pointless discussion.

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, Madhuvan said:

Not a big deal considering lower budget and 100m from PA.

 

both films have similar budgets so I am

not sure what you mean 

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Black Widow finishing below Fast 9 worldwide even if it releases In China 

Seems like there's a shot GvK could end up outgrossing it too (something I did not think would happen). Does make me rethink how well this would've done had it released around the same time as Tenet last year (I was predicting at least $600 mil at that time, which seems laughably high at this point).

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

I agreed May would be better. But back in the day everyone was expecting things to be better in July.

 

Delta spread worldwide after the delay, and i think no one was expecting almost half of the country to deny vaccines (US).

 

So i get why they made it, but definitelly didn't pay off.

 

But Asia was great in April (and since it had been great, you had to suspect at one point, they wouldn't be so great b/c law of averages)...so even if you delay DOM, you could have opened Asia...I mean, F9 opened, what, a month prior vs DOM open...and that worked out really well...

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

+200M from F9 comes from China where they get only 25% of the money.

F9 is looking at around $ 650 mil finish. F9's OS-China could end up beating Black Widow's worldwide gross.