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Alita: Battle Angel | Feb 14 2019 | Fox | Robert Rodriguez to direct. Rosa Salazar to play the lead. | Embargo Lifted. Reviews Pg 211

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On 1/10/2019 at 3:36 PM, CoolEric258 said:

@Shawn can explain it better than I can, but they do in fact have data, even if not necessarily official tracking (trailer interest, social media discussion. By the way Shawn, if I'm wrong on this, please let me know). Obviously they get things wrong, but the thing to remember is that this kind of analysis is done around two months before the actual movie comes out. By that time, the final stretch of marketing hasn't happened, which can really swing things positively or negatively

Great explanation, @CoolEric258 :)

 

Yes, we factor in both internal tracking (Trailer Impact + social media) as well as traditional industry tracking. The latter is what most refer to as "official" tracking, but that's a misnomer in itself because the tracking everyone reads across the trades (Deadline, Variety, THR, TheWrap, etc.) is typically part of a managed set of numbers -- in other words, those are the numbers that the various trackers and/or studios want the public to see and not necessarily what the film is actually tracking at. Sometimes it's accurate...sometimes it isn't.

 

Conversely, Boxoffice tries to weigh a balance between what films are actually tracking at versus what the-powers-that-be want the media to report (one of the advantages of being an independent outlet).

 

@ThomasNicoleIt's also important to remember that total grosses are not "tracked". Those are merely extrapolations based on current buzz, which is why they change week-to-week (so do the opening weekend numbers) at times. "Tracking" only applies to opening weekend numbers, whereas total forecasts are based on far more debatable metrics and historical performances of similar films.

 

A great example of this is Glass, which has been tracking at the level of Halloween for weeks now -- but you don't see that reported in the trades. You also don't see a specific reaction to reviews factored into the tracking from trades, which is shown in ours this week with a significant decrease.

 

I'll be the first to acknowledge our missed calls on Mary Poppins and Aquaman several months out from release, but that ignores the number of other forecasts we generally hit the target on and/or acknowledge the full range of potential (or lack thereof) within the analysis itself. 2018 in general was an anomaly at times because so many films under-tracked against even the most optimistic models (one reason that it set a record by such a large margin is so impressive). Black Panther is the greatest example of that, which was basically the Avatar of the year in that no one could pinpoint how culturally impactful it would be.

 

Similarly, you can look back at our archives and notice that our tracking steadily moved in the right direction for those films in the weeks leading up to release (shrinking the gap between Aquaman and Poppins before eventually it was clear that Aquaman was going to be the clear winner over Christmas). We also were fairly accurate with films like Halloween, A Star Is Born, House with a Clock, Grinch, Ralph, Bumblebee, Spider-Verse, The Mule, and others.

 

Further back, some of our bigger accurate calls were for movies like Force Awakens & Last Jedi (we tracked the latter around $215M two months out from release), Dunkirk, Guardians 2, Beauty and the Beast, Logan, Doctor Strange, and others. I don't like humble-bragging, but I'm just saying... if you're going to point out the shoddy calls, at least play fair and note some of the better ones. :)

 

Box office tracking is like a weather forecast. It's always imperfect and never be taken too strictly without a thorough analysis behind the numbers. It's also not unlike baseball, where you can get something right one in three at-bats and be considered a great player. The bar is a little higher in tracking, but you get the general point: it's not a perfect science, and never will be because of the human factor.

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Call me paranoid but this sounds like a negative/luke-warm review incoming. Why would he be allowed to say it's a great-looking movie but hesitate to say it's a great movie? It's definitely not against the embargo rules given how detailed other people have been.

 

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3 minutes ago, vovin said:

Call me paranoid but this sounds like a negative/luke-warm review incoming.

You're paranoid.:Gaga:

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Looks like Fox made the right decision to move this out of December. Even if it bombs domestically, I think its going to do really well OS (especially in China) so it'll end up being a hit box office wise for Fox. 

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Will there be a final trailer?  Or is Trailer 3 the final trailer?

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2 hours ago, Klingo said:

Will there be a final trailer?  Or is Trailer 3 the final trailer?

My guess:

 

Reviews on January 31st

Review quote filled Super Bowl ad on February 3rd

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Klingo said:

Will there be a final trailer?  Or is Trailer 3 the final trailer?

Final I believe. Theres a vid up on youtube called final trailer and thats number 3

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@Shawn

Really cool post.

 

As far as Alita goes I think your team should research a little deeper. I've got a feeling that the level of care into the human part changes based on a films popularity beforehand. For instance I reckon a lot more time was put into predicting TLJ than most other films, due to precieved exposure of that prediction.

 

A reason I'm skeptical of your care into the Alita prediction.

 

14m to 41m original tracking, less than a 3x multi. That to me is an extreme underestimation of the quality of the film, when infact the quality is the easiest part to predict.

 

Tracking barely changed with new Dua Lipa information. Chart topper pop song will increase exposure.

 

Also think you're not taking into account Jim's name power. Avatar is extremely popular with the GA.

 

Alita opening 1 week before internationally, with it being a super high quality film.

 

Good luck with your Alita prediction, would advise increasing it if you wish to uphold your high standard of predictions. Remember this is not a normal film.

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, ChipMunky said:

 

Well you better hope people that saw the first trailer saw the final one.

 

Because the first trailer sucked ass. I'm not sure the last trailer will reach enough people to reverse that.

Cant wait to see you flip flop even more should the movie break out or even just should alot of positive reviews come in.

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6 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

@Shawn

Really cool post.

 

As far as Alita goes I think your team should research a little deeper. I've got a feeling that the level of care into the human part changes based on a films popularity beforehand. For instance I reckon a lot more time was put into predicting TLJ than most other films, due to precieved exposure of that prediction.

 

A reason I'm skeptical of your care into the Alita prediction.

 

14m to 41m original tracking, less than a 3x multi. That to me is an extreme underestimation of the quality of the film, when infact the quality is the easiest part to predict.

 

Tracking barely changed with new Dua Lipa information. Chart topper pop song will increase exposure.

 

Also think you're not taking into account Jim's name power. Avatar is extremely popular with the GA.

 

Alita opening 1 week before internationally, with it being a super high quality film.

 

Good luck with your Alita prediction, would advise increasing it if you wish to uphold your high standard of predictions. Remember this is not a normal film.

 

 

 

Shawn: It is really hard to predict boxoffice so stop acting like everything you say is factual.

 

IronJimbo: I agree with you but your predictions are wrong.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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People, don't jinx it. Let's wait till the embargo lifts before declaring victory. ;)

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6 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

@Shawn

Really cool post.

 

As far as Alita goes I think your team should research a little deeper. I've got a feeling that the level of care into the human part changes based on a films popularity beforehand. For instance I reckon a lot more time was put into predicting TLJ than most other films, due to precieved exposure of that prediction.

 

A reason I'm skeptical of your care into the Alita prediction.

 

14m to 41m original tracking, less than a 3x multi. That to me is an extreme underestimation of the quality of the film, when infact the quality is the easiest part to predict.

 

Tracking barely changed with new Dua Lipa information. Chart topper pop song will increase exposure.

 

Also think you're not taking into account Jim's name power. Avatar is extremely popular with the GA.

 

Alita opening 1 week before internationally, with it being a super high quality film.

 

Good luck with your Alita prediction, would advise increasing it if you wish to uphold your high standard of predictions. Remember this is not a normal film.

 

 

 

All this condescension is gonna be so funny when this movie tanks domestically in like a month

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15 minutes ago, TMP said:

All this condescension is gonna be so funny when this movie tanks domestically in like a month

This will age like a fine wine. 

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45 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Shawn: It is really hard to predict boxoffice so stop acting like everything you say is factual.

:wintf:

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Hey, heres my prediction: Alita will make money. It will sell movie tickets.

 

Spoiler

How much remains to be seen lololol.

 

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2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

lol, wtf?

 

My sarcasm did not come across properly :ph34r: lol 

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You guys want this thread to be locked again. Oh, well...

 

There's nothing at the time that can make you guess BO anyways.

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8 minutes ago, Nova said:

My sarcasm did not come across properly :ph34r: lol 

Sorry, it's just so odd for someone to come at Shawn like that when he is always to open and honest with their approaches to the data.

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