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Alita: Battle Angel | Feb 14 2019 | Fox | Robert Rodriguez to direct. Rosa Salazar to play the lead. | Embargo Lifted. Reviews Pg 211

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1 hour ago, SnokesLegs said:

4.5fl isn’t actually that high, so I wouldn’t expect that to affect many cinemas in terms of them being able to show it.

 

I’d be shocked if this was mandated outside of the US as well. I think I’ve mentioned this before on here, but at the UK cinema I used to work at, delivery of the hard drive with Transformers 4 also had a letter from Paramount/Michael Bay asking us to turn up the brightness for all 3D showings, but they totally ignored it as it would have shortened the life of the xenon bulb.

 

There was a screen we had that frequently went below 2fl, and The Martian in 3D looked like we were showing a shadow puppets version of the film. We did eventually move it out of that screen, but head office couldn’t have cared less when we notified them of the issues, and they repeatedly asked us to program 3D showings in there despite knowing it would result in complaints.

It's very short sighted. They are digging their own grave. It doesn't just pertain to 3D, home equipment gets better and better, people will have less reasons to go to a theater if they are not able to deliver "a show".

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6 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

This is my best case scenario for right now, before any tracking is released:

 

T - 11m

F - 8.25m(-25%)

S - 13.2m(+60%)

S - 10.56m(-20%)

M - 6.34m(-40%)

3 Day - 32.01m

4 Day - 38.35m

 

Give it 3.75x from the 3 day and you get $120m.

reasonable except for the legs of course.

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Just now, IronJimbo said:

reasonable except for the legs of course.

I could be wrong, it is easier to get better legs because of the nature of this opening weekend after all.  

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5 minutes ago, Alli said:

Look at us raising our predictions.  the power of ironjimbo's persuasion!!!!  I even have an Alita Under The Kid who would be king club. that means total bomb for Alita

I've been thinking Pacific Rim numbers as a best case for a few weeks now. This is just me working something out.  

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15 minutes ago, Alli said:

Edge of Tomorrow tracking was spot on.

 

I just don;'t think Alita will beat tracking by much and explode at the BO. these latest videos haven't garnered too many views

Alita is on the rise. There are some marketing strategies for this month still. It is easier for it to overcome the tracking than fall down.

 

Ready player one also did not have so many views before it was released. The final trailer has 5.44m of views on youtube until today and the movie has already been released.

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I see this pulling Edge of Tomorrow numbers, albeit just slightly lower than what that film did opening weekend. A mid 20s opening for the three day weekend ($24-26 mil) and a final domestic number around $100 mil or so.

 

I hope it ends up being more than that but I think that’s a reasonable guess.

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18 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

This is my best case scenario for right now, before any tracking is released:

 

T - 11m

F - 8.25m(-25%)

S - 13.2m(+60%)

S - 10.56m(-20%)

M - 6.34m(-40%)

3 Day - 32.01m

4 Day - 38.35m

 

Give it 3.75x from the 3 day and you get $120m.

i expect a similar debut, but with much better legs

 

 

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15 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The difference here is where Alita's initial tracking is.  I highly doubt it's already going to be in the range of $35m.  

 

It might be $15-20m now and slowly increase and reviews and word start getting around.

Yes, my point is that tracking will be initially low.

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3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

i expect a similar debut, but with much better legs

 

 

Okay, what type of legs are you expecting?

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Just now, Deep Wang said:

Okay, what type of legs are you expecting?

5 to 7

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Just now, Deep Wang said:

Okay, what type of legs are you expecting?

6x, maybe 7x for the 3-day

 

and yeah, i know it's hard hahah

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4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

5 to 7

 

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

6x, maybe 7x for the 3-day

 

and yeah, i know it's hard hahah

 

:hahaha:

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It all hinges on Alita being something special. Early reactions go even as far as calling it genre defining but we have only had a couple reactions so who knows what the majority will think. If it turns out to be a "normal" movie with okay / pretty good WOM the Pacific Rim / Edge of Tomorrow comparisons sound reasonable. I'm pretty bullish, though, on it being more than "a normal movie". Cameron is too deeply involved and i trust him. As for Rodriguez, he's never been on my radar but maybe with a great script and colaborators he can outdo himself. I would be so friggin stoked if Alita thrills audiences and manages to outgross Ant-Man and the Wasp, which might spell good news for us wishing for sequels. Fingers crossed...

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Just now, Elessar said:

It all hinges on Alita being something special. Early reactions go even as far as calling it genre defining but we have only had a couple reactions so who knows what the majority will think. If it turns out to be a "normal" movie with okay / pretty good WOM the Pacific Rim / Edge of Tomorrow comparisons sound reasonable. I'm pretty bullish, though, on it being more than "a normal movie". Cameron is too deeply involved and i trust him. As for Rodriguez, he's never been on my radar but maybe with a great script and colaborators he can outdo himself. I would be so friggin stoked if Alita thrills audiences and manages to outgross Ant-Man and the Wasp, which might spell good news for us wishing for sequels. Fingers crossed...

Elessar you're in luck.

 

"you [Alita] are someone very special" - Ido

Alita_Battle_Angel-865913086-large.jpg

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1 hour ago, SchumacherFTW said:

The colours and brightness are better, laser looks better on the bigger screens as well. It's not got full imax dimensions, but it's a wider screen than the BFI. 

I’d concur with this. I watched Infinity War on Laser IMAX in Sheffield and then on the Digital IMAX at the BFI and found that the Laser performance looked better, particularly in terms of the 3D. Laser projected 3D for me tends to have less ghosting, and the glasses don’t actually dim anything (Laser glasses are actually considerably expensive to replace due to the tech inside them, around £40 a pair, so that should tell you how different they are to the regular digital IMAX 3D glasses) so you’re getting full brightness with Laser, whereas the digital glasses still have the dimming effect.

 

In all honesty the BFI is still good and if it’s a film that was filmed with IMAX cameras and fills most of their massive screen you can’t really go wrong, but for Alita I’d say the Laser IMAX at the old Empire is probably your best bet.

 

57 minutes ago, Elessar said:

It's very short sighted. They are digging their own grave. It doesn't just pertain to 3D, home equipment gets better and better, people will have less reasons to go to a theater if they are not able to deliver "a show".

Aside from IMAX 3D, I much prefer the 3D on my TV, it looks miles better than what I get at my local multiplex with a Real D performance. I watched Incredibles 2 in 3D at the cinema and again on my TV and the picture was infinitely better on my TV, with brighter colours and more noticeable depth.

 

Avatar looked absolutely stunning in 3D on my TV when I bought the 3D Blu Ray a few months back. The 3D on that film still hasn’t been bettered.

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6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Elessar you're in luck.

 

"you [Alita] are someone very special" - Ido

Alita_Battle_Angel-865913086-large.jpg

In all seriousness, though, i don't get people who found early trailers bad / weird / goofy, what have you. I was immediately  hooked by the character Alita and her plight. If you remember, Jimbo, even you had reservations. ;)

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10 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Aside from IMAX 3D, I much prefer the 3D on my TV, it looks miles better than what I get at my local multiplex with a Real D performance. I watched Incredibles 2 in 3D at the cinema and again on my TV and the picture was infinitely better on my TV, with brighter colours and more noticeable depth.

 

Avatar looked absolutely stunning in 3D on my TV when I bought the 3D Blu Ray a few months back. The 3D on that film still hasn’t been bettered.

Indeed.

 

You can get a 1080p Projector for like 600 bucks that delievers a huge and pretty great 3D presentation. It's kind of embarassing how underwhelming the theater experience often tends to be. You can't expect growing attendance or even stopping the downward trend while at the same time screwing over your customers.

Edited by Elessar

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7 minutes ago, Elessar said:

In all seriousness, though, i don't get people who found early trailers bad / weird / goofy, what have you. I was immediately  hooked by the character Alita and her plight. If you remember, Jimbo, even you had reservations. ;)

Having read the manga I wasn't impressed with the worldbuilding. Later trailers have shown a much bigger scale and better visuals.

 

My expectations were Jim level though, I expected more.

 

 

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