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Alita: Battle Angel | Feb 14 2019 | Fox | Robert Rodriguez to direct. Rosa Salazar to play the lead. | Embargo Lifted. Reviews Pg 211

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1 hour ago, TimmyRiggins said:

I like his enthusiasm but obviously, with domestic probably bound to disappoint, there's no way it hits a billion. 500 M WW minimum is the target imo, it could go higher, who knows. SK seems to show very strong WOM, hopefully that'll extend to everywhere else ^^ This doesn't seem like the kind of film that anyone would have a bad time watching. 

The only way the movie makes 500 mil is if it makes 200 mil+ in China and the only way that is possible is if The Wandering Earth abruptly dies in China. But that movie is having an Avatar-esque run there. 150 mil seems to be the target for Alita atm.

 

460 mil is my optimistic WW prediction. 

Edited by lorddemaxus
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There's no one way for it to reach 500 M WW. 

Edited by TimmyRiggins

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15 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

There's no one way that it can reach 500 M WW. 

?

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lord makes it sound like the only way the film reaches 500 M WW minimum is by hitting 200 M+ in China, to which I respond that there isn't just one way for it to reach 500 M.

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10 minutes ago, Litio said:

?

Timmy means there are lots of ways it can reach 500m ww.

 

For instance solid across all regions.

 

Bad everywhere but China.

 

Super strong SEA performance.

 

Suprise breakouts in Japan and Russia

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7 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

lord makes it sound like the only way the film reaches 500 M WW minimum is by hitting 200 M+ in China, to which I respond that there isn't just one way for it to reach 500 M.

 

Not good enough.....the movie will bleed red like crazy 

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Starting to Look like this may not hit number 1 in China, Wandering Earth is an absolute BEAST. 

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17 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

 

Not good enough.....the movie will bleed red like crazy 

If some films with equal budgets or slightly higher can get sequels with 400-500 M WW, this definitely can. 

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It is really a bit of bad luck that some of the most important OS markets (SK and China) have such strong local competition.

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$200M in China against Wandering Earth ,HTTYD3 and Captain Marvel? 

No way! 

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I doubt this does even 70M in China because of too much competition. In many markets local competition has hurt it or prevented it from breaking out. 

It's competition is httyd2, local record breaking blockbusters and captain Marvel. Hard to survive that. Starting to think that christmas release may have actually benefitted it more. 

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The budget is really $200mn? As wiki suggest. :jeb!:

There's absolutely no way it's not bombing. Even if it manage $200mn in China and $300mn in rest, that's still $175mn Approx theatrical share.

 

Don't think this will do big numbers home entertainment.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, chuck0 said:

It is really a bit of bad luck that some of the most important OS markets (SK and China) have such strong local competition.

make an appealing movie and you don't need to worry about competition, because you are the competition...

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Before seeing it, I thought GITB level of $30M in China while a friend from cinema chain gave $200M. After that, our predictions became closer, I say trying $100M, and he feel around $120M.

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1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The budget is really $200mn? As wiki suggest. :jeb!:

There's absolutely no way it's not bombing. Even if it manage $200mn in China and $300mn in rest, that's still $175mn Approx theatrical share.

 

Don't think this will do big numbers home entertainment.

 

 

 

“It’s in the $150 million range,” Rodriguez said.

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2 minutes ago, Avatree said:

 

“It’s in the $150 million range,” Rodriguez said.

Deadline just reported it was 170 ml yesterday. I'll go with the most recent report and it sounds right. 200 mil sounds too high, 150 sounds too low.

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4 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Before seeing it, I thought GITB level of $30M in China while a friend from cinema chain gave $200M. After that, our predictions became closer, I say trying $100M, and he feel around $120M.

What is GITB:whosad:

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9 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The budget is really $200mn? As wiki suggest. :jeb!:

There's absolutely no way it's not bombing. Even if it manage $200mn in China and $300mn in rest, that's still $175mn Approx theatrical share.

 

Don't think this will do big numbers home entertainment.

 

 

150-160M after tax credits. 

Edited by marveldcfox

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300 pages!

8 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

What is GITB:whosad:

ghost in the shell

 

(Typo)

Edited by Avatree

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1 hour ago, TimmyRiggins said:

lord makes it sound like the only way the film reaches 500 M WW minimum is by hitting 200 M+ in China, to which I respond that there isn't just one way for it to reach 500 M.

For a movie like this, that is the only way. Europe doesn't care, neither does America. Presales in South America seem pretty lackluster too. And Asia-China doesn't seem anywhere near as strong as it needs to be to carry the film to 500 mil. The only two markets where it has a chance to blow up is China and Japan and as many have pointed out, there is way too much competition in China.

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