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Alita: Battle Angel | Feb 14 2019 | Fox | Robert Rodriguez to direct. Rosa Salazar to play the lead. | Embargo Lifted. Reviews Pg 211

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5 hours ago, eridani said:

Is this HT2 example from the Sony leak? Or is your personal projection?

 

I find it very peculiar that international HE revenue is lower than domestic HE. Especially THAT much lower. I see little reason for the studio to say "sure, we'll take only 25% of the sales price overseas, even though in the US we'll take 60%". I am aware that disc retail prices worldwide tend to be lower than in the US, but by THAT much, considering the much larger market? 

Leak.

 

International is much more TV revenues than home ent for Hollywood studio, according to this a bit like the world toys market the US market is really special:

 

https://www.statista.com/outlook/282/100/home-entertainment/worldwide#market-revenue

https://www.statista.com/outlook/282/109/home-entertainment/united-states

 

5 hours ago, eridani said:

Doesn't matter how long the deal lasts, it still means a movie that does 100 million domestically is likely to earn 20 million in pure revenue just from US netflix. And that's 2014 figures, like you've said. We're looking at perhaps 100 million within a decade, worldwide, from ALL the digital licence deals. 

Well it is not that special, has Dvds revenue shift, the first Cloudy with meatballs movie made 190m from dvd/tv, today its 75m in domestic home entertainment revenues would have shifted quite a bit toward streaming revenues. That said I doubt WW digital license deal is 5 time bigger than the US, US is really really big in home ent revenues.

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12 hours ago, Barnack said:

That said I doubt WW digital license deal is 5 time bigger than the US, US is really really big in home ent revenues.

I am really trying to get a feel for a rule of a thumb rule. For a generic, moderate blockbuster. I also recently came across a news report saying that digital and streaming is now twice as big in the US than disc sales. With studios getting a bigger percentage of that revenue compared to discs, final revenue would be even more.

 

So a movie that does 100 million in theaters domestically, 200 million in China and 200 million in the rest of the markets -

how much could it be expected to earn from other revenue streams within five years?

30 million domestic total discs sales (not studio revenue)

60 million domestic streaming? (not just netflix) Probably also not all revenue but most of it should be pure revenue for studios

10 million domestic TV, airlines and other ancillary? (revenue)

45 million overseas discs sales (Not revenue) In this instance with heavy international box office the figure could be higher)

90 million overseas streaming? 

50 million overseas TV and other ancillary?

 

Would those figures roughly hold up? I am aware that there are always exceptions, with films that get really popular in Home entertainment market but still... 

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What makes you think home ent markets help decide sequels? 

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Just now, Harley said:

What makes you think home ent markets help decide sequels? 

HE = Money = Sequels

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I think it helps on borderline movies that were profitable prior to video.

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I don’t think Avatar 2 is going to suffer the same box office fate as Alita.

 

378-B139-D-1-A41-4-CDF-B713-FA9733374-CF

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20 minutes ago, WhiteWings said:

We share a breath that will aid our angel to take flight

 

 

Comments :hahaha:

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12 hours ago, eridani said:

I am really trying to get a feel for a rule of a thumb rule. For a generic, moderate blockbuster. I also recently came across a news report saying that digital and streaming is now twice as big in the US than disc sales. With studios getting a bigger percentage of that revenue compared to discs, final revenue would be even more.

 

So a movie that does 100 million in theaters domestically, 200 million in China and 200 million in the rest of the markets -

how much could it be expected to earn from other revenue streams within five years?

30 million domestic total discs sales (not studio revenue)

60 million domestic streaming? (not just netflix) Probably also not all revenue but most of it should be pure revenue for studios

10 million domestic TV, airlines and other ancillary? (revenue)

45 million overseas discs sales (Not revenue) In this instance with heavy international box office the figure could be higher)

90 million overseas streaming? 

50 million overseas TV and other ancillary?

 

Would those figures roughly hold up? I am aware that there are always exceptions, with films that get really popular in Home entertainment market but still... 

 

I have never seen sales numbers only studio revenues (reading the rest I am unsure if you are mixing up revenues and profit s words). The total (285m) at first glance do look a bit high,  I think  a lot of the streaming revenues is cannibalizing previous existing revenues and not new one.

 

For a 2013/2014 release a 100/200 intl would have looked something like this:

 

Using the Inferno movie projection example at 100m dbo / 200m intl

 

Inferno

 

Domestic th: 53m (53% retention rate)

Intl theatrical: 88.73m (44% retention rate)

 

Dom home ent: 43.03m

dom PPV/VOD: 10m

 

intl hom ent: 38.07m

intl ppv/vod: 4.88m

 

dom tv: 21.13m (at the time Starz streaming deal)

intl TV: 59.65m

 

Airlines: 2.23m

 

 

So 178m or so after the theatrical window + What the market now look like In China

 

iQiyi the equivalent of Netflix in China is now getting really big:

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/02/21/1739868/0/en/iQIYI-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Year-2018-Financial-Results.html

 

1 billion in revenues last quarter with a 55% growth, will probably make around 5.5b this year, those are Netflix 2014 worldwide revenues in the China market on one platform, needless to say that it is a complete different market than during the Sony leak year's, that I really do not know about.

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, WhiteWings said:

We will not go quietly into the night

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2019/04/02/alita-battle-angel-avoids-major-write-down-and-could-get-a-sequel/#52f6df526729

 

We share a breath that will aid our angel to take flight

 

 

You know why? When there is no reason left to hate Alita. This will be the nice treatment Alita gonna get. The movie is so good to be deny, Alita has done nothing to them, as they have NO REASON  LEFT TO HATE. That is when the table starts to turn :)

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Haha! So, as I told you:

 

1. This thread is just starting up.

2. Sequel announcement is just a matter of time.

 

a-and, the new one:

 

3. Alita is making at least 300m on the Home market!! :) Now how is that for a profit? ;)

 

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21 hours ago, shayhiri said:

 

3. Alita is making at least 300m on the Home market!! :) Now how is that for a profit? ;)

 

gJW5Iv4.gif

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21 hours ago, shayhiri said:

Haha! So, as I told you:

 

1. This thread is just starting up.

2. Sequel announcement is just a matter of time.

 

a-and, the new one:

 

3. Alita is making at least 300m on the Home market!! :) Now how is that for a profit? ;)

 

 

It will make at least 300M Iranian Rial which converts to 2703$  

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I'm new here and I've long started to groan audibly whenever I see that same lame currency joke. 🤮

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On 4/3/2019 at 1:19 AM, shayhiri said:

Haha! So, as I told you:

 

1. This thread is just starting up.

2. Sequel announcement is just a matter of time.

 

a-and, the new one:

 

3. Alita is making at least 300m on the Home market!! :) Now how is that for a profit? ;)

 

I love your optimism. 

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Is it normal for box mojo to be miscalculation so frequently? Alita box office from 400m+ to 399m last week.After they updated it to 402m, now they update again.... and Alita box down to 401m lol. What is going on

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Posted (edited)
On 4/3/2019 at 3:19 AM, shayhiri said:

3. Alita is making at least 300m on the Home market!! :) Now how is that for a profit? ;)

 

 

Well, I saw the same info that you all saw (in that article). It said Solo made 100m (and is still making more) - on the Domestic Home market alone!!

 

Now, Solo was a great movie (Shay's number one movie of the year for the stinking 2018), but it was unloved by the unwashed masses, who held a stupid grudge against it, because of the Ep. 8 fiasco.

 

So, not only did Alita make MORE money than Solo, but it also became UNIVERSALLY LOVED - the absolutely inimitable and devastating 94%!! of audience love and adoration, that even the RT hired corporate guns did not have the heart (or power) to spin, fake or delete!!

 

Compare to the 64% of Solo. So that is why, since Solo is making 100m+ Dom, Alita will make at least 300m WW. And this is if she does NOT blow up and become the phenomenon of admiration and devotion I've already seen her to be.

 

So - the studio will at least DOUBLE their gains on Alita on Home market. So two sequels are in the can already.

 

You are all welcome.

 

The Shay visionaire

 

Edited by shayhiri
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9 hours ago, soiberi1 said:

Is it normal for box mojo to be miscalculation so frequently? Alita box office from 400m+ to 399m last week.After they updated it to 402m, now they update again.... and Alita box down to 401m lol. What is going on

It’s so sad the number always gets adjusted downward☹️, instead of upward. And the adjustment is so large, like ~30%-50% of the weekly international number. 

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50 minutes ago, shayhiri said:

 

Well, I saw the same info that you all saw (in that article). It said Solo made 100m (and is still making more) - on the Domestic Home market alone!!

 

Now, Solo was a great movie (Shay's number one movie of the year for the stinking 2018), but it was unloved by the unwashed masses, who held a stupid grudge against it.

 

So, not only did Alita make MORE money than Solo, but it also became UNIVERSALLY LOVED - the absolutely inimitable and devastating 94%!! of audience love and adoration, that even the RT hired corporate guns did not have the heart (or power) to spin, fake or delete!!

 

Compare to the 64% of Solo. So that is why, since Solo is making 100m+ Dom, Alita will make at least 300m WW. And this is if she does NOT blow up and become the phenomenon of admiration and devotion I've already seen her to be.

 

So - the studio will at least DOUBLE their gains on Alita on Home market. So two sequels are in the can already.

 

You are all welcome.

 

The Shay visionaire

 

What are you smoking and where can I get some?

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