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Alita: Battle Angel | Feb 14 2019 | Fox | Robert Rodriguez to direct. Rosa Salazar to play the lead. | Embargo Lifted. Reviews Pg 211

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The HV sales are pretty solid as mentioned before (closer to those of a 150M dom movie), but far far away from suggesting a sequel will be started. Those who want a sequel may just hope this turns out to be another Terminator but chances are not high. Especially because right now there is no demand for sci-fi movies: most of the time they flop or post mediocre numbers (200/300 WW), and even those that are part of exisiting franchises aren't in good shape (Terminator DF has its target around 500 and Genysis just did 9% better than Alita; Transformers are basically done; SW is very weak in non-traditional number and Solo did under 400).

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11 hours ago, Alexdube said:

I wonder how many of you who would have guessed this was getting a sequel:

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Tomb-Raider-(2018)#tab=summary

I felt it was possible if extremely unlikely. 

Tomb Raider though does have a higher marketability profile than Alita. Video Game turned comic property vs Manga that didn't catch on. It may sound like a stretch but here we are. 

 

I will say that knowing this is getting a sequel, that I'm ok with, reopens the old wound of why couldn't Karl Urban's Dredd get a sequel then!

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22 hours ago, JB33 said:

No kidding, though I genuinely don't mind the more reasonable fans bumping it to discuss blu-ray sales. That's harmless and they're fans at the end of the day. 

I am beginning to have negative opinion of the word "fan" since I see so much stupid behavior from "fans".

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4 hours ago, Captain Craig said:

I felt it was possible if extremely unlikely. 

Tomb Raider though does have a higher marketability profile than Alita. Video Game turned comic property vs Manga that didn't catch on. It may sound like a stretch but here we are. 

 

I will say that knowing this is getting a sequel, that I'm ok with, reopens the old wound of why couldn't Karl Urban's Dredd get a sequel then!

I also think they ran the numbers, and figured out they could make a Tomb Raider sequel for a smaller, much smaller budget then the first film,low enough to make it a reasonable risk.

That probably won't be the case with Alita.

 

Edited by dudalb
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Based on recent comments from Cameron don't be surprised if Alita gets turned into a series for Disney +, he seems a lot more open to this concept than he has in the past. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

Based on recent comments from Cameron don't be surprised if Alita gets turned into a series for Disney +, he seems a lot more open to this concept than he has in the past. 

 

 

Recent comments from Cameron? Too expensive VFX for series :whosad:

27862023.jpg

Edited by Serg91
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7 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

Based on recent comments from Cameron don't be surprised if Alita gets turned into a series for Disney +, he seems a lot more open to this concept than he has in the past. 

 

 

It would also cost a lot less money.

I think Cameron has dabbled a little in television with some documentaries.

 

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1 hour ago, dudalb said:

It would also cost a lot less money.

I think Cameron has dabbled a little in television with some documentaries.

 

Ever heard of Dark Angel?

 

Alita TV show? It's not going to happen, at least not in live-action.

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It's either a movie like the first one - or nothing!

 

The Shay (and Alita) do not compromise.

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6 minutes ago, shayhiri said:

It's either a movie like the first one - or nothing!

 

The Shay (and Alita) do not compromise.

That's a Jim-like quality you have Shay, I'm on the same boat as you. Never compromise and never let anyone get in your way.

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Cameron’s last fictional directorial effort before Avatar was the final episode of Dark Angel. 

 

He basically directed the episode to give Fox extra incentive to renew it for season 3. 

 

Fox cancelled it. 

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20 hours ago, DeeCee said:

Cameron’s last fictional directorial effort before Avatar was the final episode of Dark Angel. 

 

He basically directed the episode to give Fox extra incentive to renew it for season 3. 

 

Fox cancelled it. 

 

Holy shit I remember watching the first episode out of curiosity thinking he had directed it, but it was actually the last one. I wasn't seeing Cameron at all in that episode and I couldn't believe he had directed it. I just watched the last one and now I see it, that looks like something he directed, much tighter than the other episode I watched (also the highest rated episode of both seasons on imdb), but probably his weakest effort as a director (not counting Piranha). Cameron is only Cameron when he does everything and  takes his time to apply his perfectionism everywhere, a last-ditch effort to save a TV show ain't it.

 

The show did have a pretty successful first season though,  so it's not like his first foray into television was a complete failure either.

Edited by Alexdube

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55 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Probably quite a few people given that Tomb Raider was a modest hit and Alita was a minor failure?

define "hit"

Edited by Alexdube

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3 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

define "hit"

It was made for much more reasonable budget than the Jolie movies. It tripled its budget. Can't say the same for Flop Angel.

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1 hour ago, Avatree said:

It was made for much more reasonable budget than the Jolie movies. It tripled its budget. Can't say the same for Flop Angel.

Not quite triple, but ok close enough...

 

Like Alita, Tomb Raider made a large portion of its gross from China, in the end it didn't make its money back from its theatrical run. It's also doing worst than Alita on home release. Plus the fact that basically no one likes that movie or is asking for a sequel. Its got worst reviews than Alita and all across the board bad audience scores which doesn't bode well for its longevity. But here we are with a confirmed sequel, I doubt anyone here would have been very positive about its chances to get one.

 

My guess is its relying on getting carried by a successful video game franchise, but other than that it didn't have much going for it

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26 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

Like Alita, Tomb Raider made a large portion of its gross from China, in the end it didn't make its money back from its theatrical run. It's also doing worst than Alita on home release. Plus the fact that basically no one likes that movie or is asking for a sequel. Its got worst reviews than Alita and all across the board bad audience scores which doesn't bode well for its longevity. But here we are with a confirmed sequel, I doubt anyone here would have been very positive about its chances to get one.

 

1) About no movie of that budget make their money back from their theatrical run (Venom maybe some others but it is really really rare)

 

Imagine the movie would have made $412.5M instead, 50% more everywhere.

 

1.5*58.2*.53+1.5*(216.4-78.5)*.4+1.5*78.5*.25 = 158.45

 

94M budget, 100M worldwide P&A, 11M overhead, 14-15M in participation you are a bit above 200M spent.

 

2) We do not know how movies are doing on home release, we have so little clue, some weekly ranking, some physical sales gross estimates but they are becoming a smaller part of the HE spending (once you consider how high EST margin are from the studio point of view), take that graph from a grain of salt I feel the SVOD figure do not distinguish what part of the streaming spending is on movies in particular

chartoftheday_7654_home_entertainment_sp

 

3) I doubt we have much clue if people are asking for a sequel or not (not sure how much of a pulse on Chinese audience we have for an obvious example and how vocal a fanbase is or isn't).

 

 

Edited by Barnack

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40 minutes ago, Barnack said:

3) I doubt we have much clue if people are asking for a sequel or not (not sure how much of a pulse on Chinese audience we have for an obvious example and how vocal a fanbase is or isn't).

at least 60k https://www.econotimes.com/Alita-Battle-Angel-2-release-date-cast-plot-60000-fans-petition-to-see-sequel-movie-1562843 :hahaha:

 

It might be silly, but little things like this lead me to believe the movie might find a sizable audience in the long run. Not everyone likes the movie, but the ones that do really love it. But like you said there's a great deal we don't know, there just isn't enough data or the data there is is largely imprecise. What bothers me is the arrogant people thinking they most definitely know what will be the outcome despite the lack of precise data 

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