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Eric Slay

Flop Weekend Thread (7/23-25): Old 16.5M, Snake Eyes 13.35, Black Widow 11.6 (-56%), Space Jam 9.56 (-69%) | Theaters are dead? Long live streaming?

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    5 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

    Ant Man 2 and SM FFH also had big drops but stabilised after that. And Ant Man 2 actually had A- cinemascore. 

     

    It's very obvious what's happening right now if you think about it. Covid cases are literally rising again. 

     


     

    Black Widow is just dull though. At least those other two movies work as breezy fun 

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    Space Jam is gonna end up a pretty big loss for WB. Given that the original also disappointed compared to its massive pre-release expectations back in the day, they won't make a third attempt at this IP unless it's an HBO Max exclusive.

     

    Joe Bell is unsurprisingly doing terrible looking at less than $800K for the weekend according to Hollywood Reporter. Better luck next time, Mark Wahlberg.

     

    ‘Old’ Box Office: M. Night Shyamalan’s Pic Slithers Past ‘Snake Eyes’ – The Hollywood Reporter

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    3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

    Space Jam is gonna end up a pretty big loss for WB. Given that the original also disappointed compared to its massive pre-release expectations back in the day, they won't make a third attempt at this IP unless it's an HBO Max exclusive.

    Like with the first film, it's a flop in the boxoffice but likely already made its money back from promotional tie-ins and merchandising sales. It's why this is such a clear cynical cash-grab with no effort put in. The 3rd attempt won't be for another 30 years when they repeat what they did with the 1st film and this new one.

    Edited by lorddemaxus
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    2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

    I believe that there are no very interesting films, films that make you go to the cinema

     

    This is underrated. I think there's a lot of beating around the bush with streaming, new variant, other excuses but they are just a symptom of the problem which is that nothing feels worthy of the trip to cinemas. Some movies managed a temporary fandom rush for the first 3 days but that petered out quickly cause, outside of core fandom, no one was interested. 

     

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    11 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

     

    This is underrated. I think there's a lot of beating around the bush with streaming, new variant, other excuses but they are just a symptom of the problem which is that nothing feels worthy of the trip to cinemas. Some movies managed a temporary fandom rush for the first 3 days but that petered out quickly cause, outside of core fandom, no one was interested. 

     

    unfortunately the big majors have decided not to release major films this summer.
    we only had BW and F9

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    4 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

     

    unfortunately the big majors have decided not to release major films this summer.
    we only had BW and F9

    Technically The Suicide Squad is considered a major in terms of budget, cast, director and even the IP itself; but there is just not enough hype

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    33 minutes ago, John Marston said:

    Overseas is probably a different story but I’m n out buying COVID is hurting these movies domestically. Like I said here in Michigan everything is pretty much back to normal (restaurants, malls, bars, gyms etc). I think WOM/interest and streaming options are the bigger culprits 

     

    I think part of the problem is who/what are back to normal...movies generally draw, what, 28M regular fans and then another "however many tickets Endgame sold" much larger group of occasional goers...but there are 330M people in the US...so, 10% are the regulars and maybe 20-30% more are the occasionals, but that still leaves 50-60% of the populace never going to movies but who can be out and filling up malls, restaurants, gyms, etc...

     

    If we're being honest and we make a Venn diagram of "movie goers with Covid cautious", it's gonna overlap quite a bit - more than it might overlap for shoppers, gym goers, or diners...

     

    I mean, just look on posters here...we make up the "normal regular movie goers", and how many still aren't going??  Not everyone lives in a high vax area even in the US, since we're all in pockets...if I was in a FL breakout pocket, I'd be taking a break from movies til they get it back together...just like if my area does somehow peak up alot next month, I might take a break after Snake Eyes (I'm gonna stay on my week-to-week buys, but I admit, I'm back to checking numbers at the hospital every day), just like I took a break this winter...

     

    And then it's also about "losing the habit" meeting "staying cautious" - I've been shocked my area has not sold out a $1 kid summer movie yet, not even close...I mean, good for me, with almost no spread, I'm still in usually under 50% capacity showings and often under 20%, so I can keep going even if we inch up some...but in 2019, you couldn't get these tickets on the day of...and now, it's so easy...

     

    I thought Space Jam 2, b/c it appealed to a more diverse family audience might be the pull in, but it is turning in to more "fan than fam" and I still don't know what movies and theaters can do to change that.  There are families going, but there seems to be a definite ceiling within them on how many will go.

     

    Maybe we need those family movie subscriptions that I think Regal kept promising might come...maybe we need free kid tickets...then, again, kid summer movies for a $1 are free kid tickets...or maybe we just need Pfizer to finish all their testing and get things going this "mid-winter", although there's no guarantee that they'll make that date...

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    29 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

    I believe that there are no very interesting films, films that make you go to the cinema

     

    Its not a murderous row but we have an MCU movie and a Fast movie that both came up 20-30% short their opening weekend of realistic precovid expectations.  AQP2 did about 20-30% of pre covid tracking.  Snake Eyes will open to a quarter of what GI Joe 2 did and this is the first comic book movie staring an Asian lead in a major IP.  The big movies have had no legs.

     

    At what point can we even start asking the question if people are still willing to see movies in theaters?

     

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    38 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

     

    This is underrated. I think there's a lot of beating around the bush with streaming, new variant, other excuses but they are just a symptom of the problem which is that nothing feels worthy of the trip to cinemas. Some movies managed a temporary fandom rush for the first 3 days but that petered out quickly cause, outside of core fandom, no one was interested. 

     


    Yup.

     

    Completely anecdotal evidence, but I’ve talked with quite a few people that would be considered part of the GA who are absolutely wanting to go back to the movies, but they shrug and decide to wait after they see the mediocre lineup of movies playing. There really aren’t enough big, top-tier titles playing and coming out consistently.

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    11 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

    The marketplace is looking worse than it was when F9 released in most of its markets (May). I'm not sure if October will actually be worse but MGM might not want to be in a position again where it is a month before release, and the situation is a lot worse.


    It doesn’t, though. The content isn’t as interesting. Audiences wanted to see A Quiet Place Part II and F9. They didn’t, and never did, care about Snake Eyes.

     

    Old, comparatively, did absolutely fine for what it is and its budget level.


    People are still going to the movies, they just don’t care about this newest crop as much.

     

    Edited by The Dark Shape
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    3 hours ago, john2000 said:

    all of european majors have a full vaccinations of around  45 % by nov that number should be around 60% or so , thats not enough for herd immunity but if they need to lockdown again with 60% full vaccinations then idk what else to say..............


    experts here says 80-85% because of Delta. Not many countries will ever reach that with vaccination

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    1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

    Like with the first film, it's a flop in the boxoffice but likely already made its money back from promotional tie-ins and merchandising sales. It's why this is such a clear cynical cash-grab with no effort put in. The 3rd attempt won't be for another 30 years when they repeat what they did with the 1st film and this new one.

     

    Such as? The movie didnt have much in the way of product placement outside of the bog standard Nike wardrobe and Xbox spot (with an outdated Xbox One S model). Its not exactly a Michael Bay or Bond film.

    I also doubt the strength of any merch sales. Bugs and the Looney Tunes have never been Mickey and Friends and that's even more aparrent in 2021.

    Edited by AJG
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    9 minutes ago, AJG said:

     

    Such as? The movie didnt have much in the way of product placement outside of the bog standard Nike wardrobe and Xbox spot (with an outdated Xbox One S model). Its not exactly a Michael Bay or Bond film.

    I also doubt the strength of any merch sales. Bugs and the Looney Tunes have never been Mickey and Friends and that's even more aparrent in 2021.

     

    https://qz.com/2011315/space-jam-a-new-legacy-is-a-massive-merchandising-opportunity/

     

    "For the new release, Warner Bros. has a dizzying array of partners and products lined up. Nike alone will sell Space Jam jerseys, tanks, hoodies, jackets, socks, backpacks, and of course sneakers. (The same shoes James wears on screen will be available for sale.)

    Converse and Crocs will sell Space Jam footwear, too, while a non-exhaustive list of companies Warner Bros. has teamed up with to sell different articles of Space Jam clothing regionally or globally include:

    Gap
    H&M
    Cotton On
    Primark
    Fanatics
    Torrid
    Snipes
    Alexandre Herchcovitch
    Vilebrequin
    Tommy Hilfiger
    Forever 21
    Members Only
    Rue21
    Pac Sun
    A Bathing Ape
    Madhappy
    Bloomingdale’s
    Diamond Supply
    MeUndies
    Clothing is just one facet of the opportunity. Among the items mentioned in the press release about its merchandising around Space Jam: A New Legacy are:

    Toys
    Stationery
    Books
    Mugs
    Phone accessories
    Drink bottles
    Keychains
    Bracelets
    Totes
    Backpacks
    Lunch bags
    Watches
    Small leather goods
    Basketballs
    Food products

    Producing all these items are a large number of brand partners. Here are a few noted by Warner Bros.:

    General Mills
    Kraft Heinz
    Hasbro
    Funko
    Moose Toys
    Spalding
    Fossil
    New Era
    Hallmark
    Alex and Ani
    Mobyfox
    GameStop
    Mattel
    Upper Deck
    There will also be many region-specific items for Latin America, Australia and New Zealand, Asia, and Europe."

     

     

    Edited by TwoMisfits
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    1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

    I believe that there are no very interesting films, films that make you go to the cinema

    Bob Evans pointed this out on the **1970s**. People don’t go “to the movies”; they go to see a movie.

     

    And I think with GI Joe and MNS, when they have a mixed track record, reviews and WOM matter more than like F9 or the MCU where “I know you think it’s bad, I don’t care.”  
     

    IDK. I just don’t think this weekend, with these crop of movies, are worth having a meltdown about. 

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