Flop Weekend Thread (7/23-25): Old 16.5M, Snake Eyes 13.35, Black Widow 11.6 (-56%), Space Jam 9.56 (-69%) | Theaters are dead? Long live streaming?

[TigerPaw]

1 minute ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I thought Suicide Squad was a complete reboot and they were dropping the first one?

No one knows this. Like general audience mostly think it is a sequel of some sort.. either that or they haven't even heard of the new film.

[Legion Again]

18 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

For these reasons, I think that films that have hybrid release would still have the same terrible holds without streaming, only numbers would be bigger. As someone posted in another post, BW 100M OW, 37M second weekend, 17M third weekend for example. I don't think that normalcy would have turned these middling movies into events either. 

Hey those aren’t particularly terrible holds for the record. A 100M OW would be maybe 16 prev+84M true FSS or something, so 37/84 is a 56% true drop — vs 55% for AM&tW, 56% for SMH (and the 61.5% true drop BW had in reality). Then 17/37 is a 54% drop, only slightly worse than other July MCU 3rd weekends. 
 

A lot of the BW discourse has ignored that even well received fully theatrical MCU July films drop 60% 2nd weekend because that’s just how fan driven franchises work when given summer Th previews.  

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, Menor said:

assuming you mean the 5-day

Ahhhh, no. I meant failing to set a new 3-day record for WB this year.

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Ahhhh, no. I meant failing to set a new 3-day record for WB this year.

Isn't that basically the same thing as under Space Jam? 0.5 million difference. But yeah that range would cause meltdowns for sure. 

[grim22]

16 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Hey those aren’t particularly terrible holds for the record. A 100M OW would be maybe 16 prev+84M true FSS or something, so 37/84 is a 56% true drop — vs 55% for AM&tW, 56% for SMH (and the 61.5% true drop BW had in reality). Then 17/37 is a 54% drop, only slightly worse than other July MCU 3rd weekends. 
 

A lot of the BW discourse has ignored that even well received fully theatrical MCU July films drop 60% 2nd weekend because that’s just how fan driven franchises work when given summer Th previews.  

What about when we add an OD which was almost 50% of the weekend into the mix and a 57% third weekend drop.

[Valonqar]

22 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I’m just going to throw my two cents in, but I don’t really think delta is having a HUGE impact on box office right now, I think it’s more product. Widow is dropping HARD in my local markets, and delta is pretty much a non-factor here. Same with Space Jam. Old is doing decently, but Snake Eyes is flopping hard.

 

maybe delta is having an effect, but the fact that box office sucks even in areas where it’s very minimal especially in the eyes of the public, I think we can safely say there are other factors involved too

 

I think it's hard for some people to admit that their favorites weren't as anticipated as they wanted them to be. Many times it isn't bad WOM or other reason that prevents certain boxoffice heights or holds but indifference. Like, I've heard it's good but I still don't care. So I'd rank lack of must see movies as the primary factor. everything else is secondary. Post-pandemic only proved that people won't return to theaters for just about anything and they haven't been offered anything special atm.

Edited July 24, 2021 by Valonqar

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

What about when we add an OD which was almost 50% of the weekend into the mix and a 57% third weekend drop.

I’m not sure what you mean/what your point is/what you’re trying to get at?We were talking about some hypothetical weekends for a theatrical exclusive BW.  
 

Edit:Ah, now that I open the quote in full presumably you’re responding to the 2nd paragraph. Well, I mean, yes — obviously BW is having brutal drops, but my point is that it’s not like they’re 10% worse than expected, more like 5%. And obviously PA is playing a role there.  

Edited July 24, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Legion Again]

11 minutes ago, Menor said:

Isn't that basically the same thing as under Space Jam? 0.5 million difference. But yeah that range would cause meltdowns for sure. 

Yeah it is basically the same, almost certainly both or neither. “Under Space Jam” feels a lot more salt-in-the-wound than “under GvK” though.

[poweranimals]

Why hasn't the numbers for the new movies been reported yet?

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Why hasn't the numbers for the new movies been reported yet?

 

Er they have:

 

Domestic Friday Estimates / Running Totals#OldMovie: $6.88M Opening#SnakeEyes: $5.47M Opening#BlackWidow $3.5M (-57%) / $146.7M#SpaceJamANewLegacy $3.05M (-77%) / $44.86M#F9: $1.33M (-41%) / $160.0M#EscapeRoom2: $1.055M (-73%) / $13.7M#BoxOffice

[Ethan Hunt]

My take on the weekends two big releases is that Old is incredibly fun and Snake Eyes is a pile of dung

[filmscholar]

 

23 hours ago, Snake Eric said:

https://deadline.com/2021/07/snake-eyes-old-m-night-shyamalan-weekend-box-office-1234798883/

 

 

 

 

Interesting numbers.   In Fairness M. Night is giving a small scale Psychological Thriller with "Old" in the summer.  Normally something like that would be better suited for the fall or winter to me.  Also M. Night has always been a (Love or Hate) type of filmmaker.  Reviews for "Old" are mixed.  But this would be his third straight #1 if he wins.   "Snake Eyes" is a Legendary Character and many G.I. Joe fans love him.  With that said it's still an 1980's property as far as the cartoon (Crazy He-Man and Snake Eyes came out on the same weekend, 80's overload, lol).  Nostalgia can only take you so far with a new generation of teens and young adults.   

 

Plus the previous G.I. Joe Films were a while ago so this really is a Reboot and reintroduction.   It seems this one is getting a better fan response so that should help it's run and it will eventually be on Paramount +.  "Snake Eyes" already has a higher Audience Score than both "Rise of Cobra" and "Retaliation".   "Space Jam 2" clearly isn't going to get anywhere near the original adjusted or not.   But I think it's set up to do well on HBO Max long term.   On paper....yes not the best numbers.   But though we are analyzing numbers, we can't underestimate the Pandemic is not over.   Consumers are still making choices concerning their health.  This is obviously going to effect legs in certain cases.  

[RRA]

3 hours ago, wildphantom said:

It’s fair to say there are a proportion of potential audiences still reluctant due to the pandemic. Which is perfectly understandable. 

 

As for BW’s and SJ2’s drops - I mean come on people. Are we seriously still debating the impact of home watching with these?  You can bet the industry thinks so. Beginning of the end for day and date! 

 They’re still “debating” because they’re either sad franchise war soldiers desperate for a “win” or because (cue whatever reason they have to have vested interest in SJ2 hitting rim) and thus they’re living and dying on confirmation bias.

 

 

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

Tragic box office weekend. I won't post again this weekend as my opinion is already in this thread and has been known for a while.

 

I will let more positive people talk instead. I have nothing to add that hasn't been said in this thread already.

“Tragic” is the word you use when a film with mixed reviews and a budget of $18m opens to $15m?? 
 

People on here are becoming so over the top. It’s getting desperate. 
 

 

Fast forward to certain people acting shocked when The Suicide Squad falls 70% in its second weekend. “WOM is terrible, cinemas will close because of this.” etc etc. Learning absolutely nothing from the past 5 months. 
 

We’re in new times. Start changing with the times. 

[Krissykins]

@Maximum Averyhave you got anything to say or are you just going to post (out of touch) reactions to every post? 
 

Or is she banned?

[Jiffy]

If 70% drop is the new norm and not just an aberration of the times then theatrical window past 15 days or so is prolly doomed. Hopefully by next winter with the usual platform releases expanding we can see the trend start to buck.

[Mr Terrific]

I’m a franchise warrior. Still, some of the analysis that drops major facts is odd to me. 
I get the-numbers-are-what-they-are perspective, but come on. 
BW is going 80/170-190(?) domestically. AM&TW went about 77/217.

If you’d said that would happen in January 2020, that would happen, people would say wow, what factor caused that. Here we are with a global pandemic that also sparked a major home video option. That’s just a different marketplace. 
I wish BW was a higher quality as a fan. That cost it some money for sure. 
This is a dead ball era of box office. Let’s not be shocked if the HR champ ends a season with 40 homers instead of 50. 

Edited July 24, 2021 by Mr Terrific
Typo

[Eric Duncan]

17 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

@Maximum Averyhave you got anything to say or are you just going to post (out of touch) reactions to every post? 
 

Or is she banned?

I just read your post and realized they were banned ages ago and isn't supposed to post reactions.

 

Fixed accordingly!

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Snake Eric said:

I just read your post and realized they were banned ages ago and isn't supposed to post reactions.

 

Fixed accordingly!

Thank you! I did wonder, a bit strange lol. 

[CJohn]

People saying Old is fine because it cost 18M need to shut up. That is not the point. Of course it will turn a profit. The point is that in a healthy market Old would be easily opening above 20M. If the new normal can't sustain a movie like Old opening with 20M, then the market is unsustainable.

 

And it isn't just Old, with movies tanking 60% left and right on their 2nd weekends against no competition, streaming option (BW, SJ2) or not (ER2, F9). 

 

People simply don't wanna go back to theaters. That is the major obstacle right now. Streaming was already turning theaters into a place to see mostly events only, and now not even that.