Flop Weekend Thread (7/23-25): Old 16.5M, Snake Eyes 13.35, Black Widow 11.6 (-56%), Space Jam 9.56 (-69%) | Theaters are dead? Long live streaming?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

5 hours ago, Last Man Standing said:

I don't think it's really comparable, moviepass was obviously non-sustainable, while streaming is a great business to get a piece of, if WB needs to kamikaze their entire film lineup to get a place at the table with Disney and Netflix, it might be worth it for them.

Warner Bros has lost over a billion dollars because of MAX 

[ThomasNicole]

Next weekends will tell us exactly if these big drops if because of meh reception or something else.

 

F9 wasn't very well received, so as Space Jam. BW is well received but underwhelming and the concensus seems to agreed is one of the worst MCU movies. All these movies face big drops.

 

Both Snake Eyes and Old are also bad received by audiences, so i'm fully expecting 65-70% drops for them too.

 

Jungle Cruise reactions just came out and all of them screams "crowd pleaser". Reactions for Suicide Squad and Free Guy are similar to this. We need to wait reviews but it seems like those 3 movies could be all very well received by audiences, if all 3 drop hard too then i will agreed we're in trouble.

[BK007]

7 hours ago, Jiffy said:

If 70% drop is the new norm and not just an aberration of the times then theatrical window past 15 days or so is prolly doomed. Hopefully by next winter with the usual platform releases expanding we can see the trend start to buck.

 

Nah, they need to find the optimum point, but if it's 15 days, then box office will be decimated. That's a completely unsustainable window.

 

I assume 45 days is going to be the standard now? Down from 3 months? What's the standard window now?

[BK007]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Next weekends will tell us exactly if these big drops if because of meh reception or something else.

 

F9 wasn't very well received, so as Space Jam. BW is well received but underwhelming and the concensus seems to agreed is one of the worst MCU movies. All these movies face big drops.

 

Both Snake Eyes and Old are also bad received by audiences, so i'm fully expecting 65-70% drops for them too.

 

Jungle Cruise reactions just came out and all of them screams "crowd pleaser". Reactions for Suicide Squad and Free Guy are similar to this. We need to wait reviews but it seems like those 3 movies could be all very well received by audiences, if all 3 drop hard too then i will agreed we're in trouble.

 

Is BW the Marvel fan's sacrificial lamb which they can point to and say "No, I didn't like this particular movie, so I'm level-headed and the rest of my opinions are fact."

 

Because it's better than most of the Marvel catalogue and much better than the likes of Black Panther, Captain America and Captain Marvel. 

[Manny G]

7 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Moviepass was popular download too

Moviepass wasn’t bringing in $2B in revenue per quarter.

[ThomasNicole]

45 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

Is BW the Marvel fan's sacrificial lamb which they can point to and say "No, I didn't like this particular movie, so I'm level-headed and the rest of my opinions are fact."

 

Because it's better than most of the Marvel catalogue and much better than the likes of Black Panther, Captain America and Captain Marvel. 

I think part of the lackluster reception maybe is not because of the movie itself, but the awful timing.

 

I mean, it's basically useless to MCU now, it should be released 5 years ago. All the recent MCU projects are building the multiverse theme and BW are just there bringing almost nothing new or exciting, for fans i think is easy to be cold about this, especially because the movie is good but nothing very special.

[Manny G]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Warner Bros has lost over a billion dollars because of MAX 

According to who? Bloggers? Twitter pundit? Because Warner Media’s revenue literally grew by 30% last quarter year to year And 4% quarter to quarter ($8.8B). Their subscription revenue is up to record level at $3.8B.

They don’t have even disclosed WB revenue so anyone giving numbers on it is Bullshitting.

 

i mean this isn’t a charity, if they were losing as much as y’all love to claim the whole thing would have been shut down, AT&T is publicly traded company you know.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

57 minutes ago, Manny G said:

According to who? Bloggers? Twitter pundit? Because Warner Media’s revenue literally grew by 30% last quarter year to year And 4% quarter to quarter ($8.8B). Their subscription revenue is up to record level at $3.8B.

They don’t have even disclosed WB revenue so anyone giving numbers on it is Bullshitting.

 

i mean this isn’t a charity, if they were losing as much as y’all love to claim the whole thing would have been shut down, AT&T is publicly traded company you know.

Moreover, industry sources say the strategic move that made such a splash last December — when WarnerMedia at Kilar’s direction opted for simultaneous releases in theaters and on HBO Max for Warner Bros.’ 2021 movie slate — is seen as a major misstep because it is shaping up to cost the studio over $1 billion in lost box office revenue, talent profit participation payments and in high license fees paid for the movies from HBO Max. Unless the pace of HBO Max subscriber additions pick up significantly in the coming months, the high cost of the movie content for the streamer will be hard to justify.
 

variety 

[Manny G]

39 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Moreover, industry sources say the strategic move that made such a splash last December — when WarnerMedia at Kilar’s direction opted for simultaneous releases in theaters and on HBO Max for Warner Bros.’ 2021 movie slate — is seen as a major misstep because it is shaping up to cost the studio over $1 billion in lost box office revenue, talent profit participation payments and in high license fees paid for the movies from HBO Max. Unless the pace of HBO Max subscriber additions pick up significantly in the coming months, the high cost of the movie content for the streamer will be hard to justify.
 

variety 

So indeed baseless

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

6 minutes ago, Manny G said:

So indeed baseless

Can’t believe there’s a Warner Bros reply guy

[wildphantom]

I think the deal with Discovery to offload Warner Media said all we need to know about AT&T’s decisions and consequences this year. 
 

[eddyxx]

15 hours ago, Menor said:

Unless something drastically changes the meltdowns in that thread are gonna make this weekend look tame. I think ITH weekend is probably the biggest meltdown thread we've had this year, but TSS flopping hard would probably beat that. 

I got TSS at 15m OW. Maybe 10m

[AN9815]

I think people do want to go back to the movies but the weak numbers we are seeing are a combination of factors. First of all, delta variant is of course affecting the box office for people who maybe were ready to go back to theatres when vaccine was available but saw the increase in cases and decided to wait or watch it at home until more people are vaccinated. Next, almost all movies being released (except for Paramount and some Universal movies) are available at home so people are going to decide to not risk it and watch it safely. Piracy is really a problem everywhere and I am shocked that studios did not see it sooner. Almost all of my friends here in Spain wanted to watch Black Widow but watched it illegally at home when they saw that they could, not particularly because of COVID but because it is free and it wasn't an event movie like Infinity War or Endgame. Even myself, who I used to go to the movies once per week, have stopped going that much and so far I have only seen Raya, Cruella, A Quiet Place 2, and Black Widow, basically event movies for me that I thought could not be missed in theatres. The only way to be back to a "normal lifestyle" is to get vaccinated, so please if or when you get the chance don't hesitate and get vaccinated.

[eddyxx]

19 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Technically The Suicide Squad is considered a major in terms of budget, cast, director and even the IP itself; but there is just not enough hype

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, eddyxx said:

I got TSS at 15m OW. Maybe 10m

Previews alone are already at ~$6m though lol

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Next weekends will tell us exactly if these big drops if because of meh reception or something else.

 

F9 wasn't very well received, so as Space Jam. BW is well received but underwhelming and the concensus seems to agreed is one of the worst MCU movies. All these movies face big drops.

 

Both Snake Eyes and Old are also bad received by audiences, so i'm fully expecting 65-70% drops for them too.

 

Jungle Cruise reactions just came out and all of them screams "crowd pleaser". Reactions for Suicide Squad and Free Guy are similar to this. We need to wait reviews but it seems like those 3 movies could be all very well received by audiences, if all 3 drop hard too then i will agreed we're in trouble.

 

But if you see Jungle Cruise under $25M OW, The Suicide Squad under $40M OW, and Free Guy under $15M OW, will it matter what the 2nd weekend drops look like unless they are literally 0?

[Menor the Destroyer]

42 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Previews alone are already at ~$6m though lol

It's not going to be as low as 10-15 million but 6 million previews seems very optimistic at this point.

Edited July 25, 2021 by Menor

[RRA]

53 minutes ago, Menor said:

It's not going to be as low as 10-15 million but 6 million previews seems very optimistic at this point.

BOP had TSS’s OW range topping out at 60.

 

Thats very optimistic to say the least.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The Suicide Squad will be lucky to even get near Birds of Prey numbers at this point.

[grey ghost]

I think 40+m is a reasonable expectation for TSS.

 

The first one opened to ~135m.