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Flop Weekend Thread (7/23-25): Old 16.5M, Snake Eyes 13.35, Black Widow 11.6 (-56%), Space Jam 9.56 (-69%) | Theaters are dead? Long live streaming?

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8 minutes ago, Snake Eric said:

 

Missing the only movie which he wrote for his family though - Lady in the Water 🤔

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7 minutes ago, Felipe said:

 

 

 

Something I just realized and am probably late on this, the Black Widow drops means that Bad Boys 3 will maintain its position at the biggest domestic movie since Jan 1 2020. That's the first mark to signify recovery I think.

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1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

That’s a good opening for Old. Glad it’s #1. Something original too. 

Yeah. Not bad at all. 

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4 minutes ago, John Marston said:


 

but I was told Delta was causing everything to drop hard?

Only Family can defeat Delta.

 

F9 already have better than F8 up to this point 

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On 7/23/2021 at 2:43 PM, Lokis Legion said:

There’s definitely some hint of delta in these numbers imo, but like — not that much? If the top 4 do 47M, vs reasonable expectations of what, maybe 56M (16+16+12+12) that’s far less of a miss then we saw on countless weekend pre-covid.   

Top 4 ending up 51M, Snake Eyes and Space Jam both 2.5M or so short of those quick nums. Disappointing product plus a movie getting hammered by MAX frontloadedness.    
 

It’s a shitty weekend for sure but in a pretty normal way. I’d expect a lot more of that for the next… 5 weeks? F9 and BW were the only real blockbusters the studios put in summer and now they’ve already come out, so

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37 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

That’s a good opening for Old. Glad it’s #1. Something original too. 

Old isn't original though.

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The Forever Purge had a really good drop given the combo of Old taking away some of the horror crowd and just became available on PVOD Friday. Continues to reinforce the notion that the shortened window doesn't hurt too much, provided it occurs following at least a few weeks of theatrical exclusivity and the VOD price being much higher than that of an individual ticket.

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On 7/23/2021 at 2:43 PM, Lokis Legion said:

Shang-Chi is in a very worrying spot, but this storm should have pretty much run it’s course by Oct or so. A couple things might go day and date (though several already were) or make minor shuffles, but this is hardly spring 2020 redux.

Oh, and fwiw, the last few days of data out of the UK have been pretty encouraging. Seems like delta could be peaking more around the time of TSS/Free Guy and on a clear downswing by the time of Shang-Chi. I now expect Disney will just muscle it out with a pure theatrical on the current date.

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We're not getting another 70-80M opener until No Time to Die. Embrace it, accept it. Shang-Chi will be an Ant-Man/Thor/Cap 1 level OW, and Venom is going to have a Deadpool-to-Deadpool 2 size drop at minimum.

 

Free Guy will be the surprise of August if Box Office Pro's 15-35M tracking holds.

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2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Shang-Chi will be an Ant-Man/Thor/Cap 1 level OW

AM1: 128th (69.6M)

Thor: 55th (103M)

Cap1: 63rd (98M)   
 

If it wants to miss 70M on a holiday, it’s going to need to be the worst OW in the MCU. Could be possible, but I hope not.

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Suicide Squad $40m? Even in normal times it looks bad enough that it might barely make $30m. 

 

Add in HBO and the pandemic, maybe it'll be as bad as Snake Eyes. 

 

Also, yet more proof executives are stupid - Paramount sold off Tomorrow War and kept Snake Eyes, Sony sold off Mitchells vs the Machines and kept Peter Rabbit 2. Was the guaranteed cash really that good? I don't think Amazon and Netflix would not have paid for the ones they ended up keeping.

 

Did they think Golding and GI Joe were stronger than Pratt? And did Sony really think that a sequel to a throwaway live action kids flick was going to do well? I guess the latter was greenlit, but the evidence for poor performance is everywhere. 

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