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Eric Atreides

Flop Weekend Thread (7/23-25): Old 16.5M, Snake Eyes 13.35, Black Widow 11.6 (-56%), Space Jam 9.56 (-69%) | Theaters are dead? Long live streaming?

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1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

See, I feel that NTTD will the litmus test for how close to "normal" the box office is. As long as it hits Spectre numbers, that's  fine. 

NTTD will be a Amazon Prime original with how things are going. Paramount seems to be adamant about Top Gun getting a theatrical release, so I think it will move to Spring 2022. Isn't Ghostbusters in November as well? That is certainly moving to 2022 as well.

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1 minute ago, CJohn said:

I am pretty sure Shang-Chi will move to the Eternals spot and Venom will move to the Spidey spot, with both Spidey and Eternals going into 2022.

 

Venom is not a good Christmas movie concept, so it's not a good spot for that movie...although we'll see how many movies the holiday can support this year.  I think Sing 2 sticks, and maybe there only needs to be one "family" movie...

 

 

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Just now, CJohn said:

NTTD will be a Amazon Prime original with how things are going. Paramount seems to be adamant about Top Gun getting a theatrical release, so I think it will move to Spring 2022. Isn't Ghostbusters in November as well? That is certainly moving to 2022 as well.

Top Gun is such a summer franchise. Should move to Transformers' June 24 spot

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1 minute ago, CJohn said:

The pandemic will maybe be controlled by Summer 2022, and that is a big maybe. I always watched movies in theaters (I saw 60 movies between June and December 2020 in theaters, and around the same as you since the 2nd reopening here in April, and I haven't been vaccinated yet) but the majority of people isn't doing any normal things or just very limited stuff. Hollywood needs to reschedule all of their Fall/Christmas stuff asap or else they will face an insane amount of mega bombs.

Part of me wants to believe the box office is down because the current release schedule is full of 2020's sloppy seconds and studios just want to get them off their plates, but I don't know. It's a very bleak time, and my perception is worse because of unemployment :whosad:

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One bit of good news, in so far as it exists, with relation to the Delta variant is that the number of deaths hasn't spiked up, sure there's a 2~ week delay but the most recent spike started 3 weeks ago and deaths are still flat or barely lowering.

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6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

NTTD will be a Amazon Prime original with how things are going. Paramount seems to be adamant about Top Gun getting a theatrical release, so I think it will move to Spring 2022. Isn't Ghostbusters in November as well? That is certainly moving to 2022 as well.

After claiming no film will open over 10m until Sept, you should cool it on these definitive statements 

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6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Umm, it's already beaten and unlikely to win Worldwide:)...

 

Gonna zoom by from behind with a little bit of NOS

 

200.gif

 

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10 minutes ago, MrPink said:

I'm ready to start the F9 #1 film of the year club

 

headbutt.gif?w=600&q=75

 

F9 really came out at the perfect time. Shame it likely won't make much past the $600M mark, but at least Vinjamin can boast that he headlined the biggest Hollywood release of 2021.

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3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Venom is not a good Christmas movie concept, so it's not a good spot for that movie...although we'll see how many movies the holiday can support this year.  I think Sing 2 sticks, and maybe there only needs to be one "family" movie...

 

 

Move Ghostbusters to Christmas and put Venom March then. It also works that way. 

3 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Top Gun is such a summer franchise. Should move to Transformers' June 24 spot

Seems like a good plan. Transformers could move to Christmas 2022.

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Part of me wants to believe the box office is down because the current release schedule is full of 2020's sloppy seconds and studios just want to get them off their plates, but I don't know. It's a very bleak time, and my perception is worse because of unemployment :whosad:

I don't buy that excuse every week. Old was not even a 2020 movie. All marketing is from this year. Same with Snake Eyes. Also, while I think something like Snake Eyes was always doomed, other movies aren't performing well either. Box office is down because going to theaters isn't a priority and watching a movie is something people can do at home. People don't care where they see the movie as long as they are able to watch it. Theaters will be the last thing to recover, and that is if it ever happens, which personally I don't believe.

 

Sucks about your unemployment. I hope you find a new job soon and get back on track with your life plans. Don't lose hope.

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The only films that I can see moving are Sony films( venom, ghostbusters and Spider-Man) because they don’t have a streaming service. Everything else is likely staying put.

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Can Sony move SpiderMan from that Xmas release date without Disney throwing a fit?

 

Edited by AJG
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These movies are not doing good but I don't think Old ever had much of an appealing premise and Shyamalan has used up some of his regained goodwill already. Even if the virus was mitigated, I'd expect low 20s for it.

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13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Part of me wants to believe the box office is down because the current release schedule is full of 2020's sloppy seconds and studios just want to get them off their plates, but I don't know. It's a very bleak time, and my perception is worse because of unemployment :whosad:

I can't really say anything against the first statement (I'm thinking about what's going to happen in about 5 years and it is bleak for traditionalists like us), but just know I'm sending you positive vibes and hopes for you on the job front. I obviously don't have any power, but I went through the exact same problem you're going through just a few months ago.

 

Just keep on applying, keep revising your resume, and make those connections happen. I'm rooting for you because I love you, and you can always talk to me if you want to vent.

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I'm unclear why this thread is melting down. Both of these movies are performing exactly within tracking expectations (Snake Eyes slightly under, but a 39% RT score will do that). 

 

Old cost 18 million. It will break even for Uni before PVOD. A Lady in the Water comparison doesn't exactly work considering that cost 70 million in 2006. 

 

I can say with some confidence that we're not going to get massive blockbuster delays, at least domestically. When can you delay to now? When studios hope more people decide to get a vaccine? If there's market uncertainty we'll keep getting day and date releases alongside theaters that may start enforcing showing vaccine cards once the FDA moves the vaccine past emergency authorization status.

Edited by Gopher
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1 minute ago, Gopher said:

I'm unclear why this thread is melting down. Both of these movies are performing exactly within tracking expectations (Snake Eyes slightly under, but a 39% RT score will do that). 

 

Old cost 18 million. It will break even for Uni before PVOD. A Lady in the Water comparison doesn't exactly work considering that cost 70 million in 2006. 

 

I can say with some confidence that we're not going to get massive blockbuster delays, at least domestically. When can you delay to now? When studios home more people decide to get a vaccine? If there's market uncertainty we'll keep getting day and date releases alongside theaters that may start enforcing showing vaccine cards once the FDA moves the vaccine past emergency authorization status.

 

It's probably not just the 2 openers...it's the 2 openers coming in on the low end of expectations, and yet the 2 holdovers are both still getting crushed, so the overall market is weak...

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Overreactions abounding in this thread.

Snake Eyes is the terribly-reviewed follow-up to two previous GI Joe movies audiences didn't like very much.

 

Old is the poorly-reviewed follow-up from M Night Shyamalan, whose last movie was received really poorly (and we've seen audiences abandon him before with Lady in the Water)

 

Black Widow's reaction by Marvel standards has been mixed and there's the Disney Plus factor.

 

Space Jam 2 was always going to drop heavily due to the nostalgic rush factor; now combine a (to be charitable) mixed reaction and the fact it's available for "free" on HBO Max.

 

Edited by The Dark Shape
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12 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's probably not just the 2 openers...it's the 2 openers coming in on the low end of expectations, and yet the 2 holdovers are both still getting crushed, so the overall market is weak...

 

I don't disagree, but I'd just keep in mind how many studios didn't want their Venom 2s and No Time to Dies out this summer because worldwide access to movie theaters is still sketchy, and how we've seen pretty strong evidence suggesting that day-and-date releases sink the legs of viewers who would consider going to a movie in its second or third weekend.

 

So all this weekend has is a lowish-budget horror movie by a famously divisive director (which is still doing fine!), a spinoff of a pretty weak IP that hasn't been tested in eight years, and two movies in their second and third weekends that have already burnt through audience demand in theaters and at home. We're getting far fewer tentpoles this summer than we usually would, and they all have their own baggage to them, whether they're competing with an at-home release strategy or they just don't look very good. 

Edited by Gopher
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I highly doubt many movies will be delayed, they won't survive to another bunch of change dates, it's bad commercially and logistically.

 

NTTD is being marketed since 2019, they already lose more money than they could with this movie, they are not delaying to 2022. Same for Top Gun.

 

I can see Marvel changing some dates, Warner can easily push Matrix to next year, maybe Sony big movies since they don't have a streaming platform, but that's it.

 

Everyone always knew 2021 will be a recovery year, not a huge comeback. There's no reason to have a meltdown because of bad numbers, given the context, that's expected for movies that only a few people really care like Old and Snake Eyes.

 

Delta variant is not helping, but what studios and theaters can do about it? The vaccines work for this variant, vaccinated people are in general protected, they will delay dozens of movies to expect when the antivax people will change their minds? 

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