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Eric Atreides

Flop Weekend Thread (7/23-25): Old 16.5M, Snake Eyes 13.35, Black Widow 11.6 (-56%), Space Jam 9.56 (-69%) | Theaters are dead? Long live streaming?

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1 minute ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

It's part of the HBO Max dual release, so that one will likely stay as is.

Agreed, but since's it's a late december movie they can delay a few weeks if they want, but i also doubt at this point

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7 minutes ago, Gopher said:

I'm unclear why this thread is melting down. Both of these movies are performing exactly within tracking expectations (Snake Eyes slightly under, but a 39% RT score will do that). 

 

Old cost 18 million. It will break even for Uni before PVOD. A Lady in the Water comparison doesn't exactly work considering that cost 70 million in 2006. 

 

I can say with some confidence that we're not going to get massive blockbuster delays, at least domestically. When can you delay to now? When studios hope more people decide to get a vaccine? If there's market uncertainty we'll keep getting day and date releases alongside theaters that may start enforcing showing vaccine cards once the FDA moves the vaccine past emergency authorization status.

It's more than just the openers. Them doing poorly is whatever to me. My issue is just at the holdovers and the market in general. Black Widow's drop is abysmal. Space Jam's 70% fall is absurd, even compared to other HBO Max titles. And I know that people will talk about WOM and streaming and piracy until they're blue in the face for justifiable and valid reasons. But it's not like Delta isn't having any impacts at all here.

 

And yeah, outside of Quiet Place, F9, and Widow, things really aren't that great. The other openers are still pretty low, and while legs are compensating for it, it's still not healthy enough to make me think theatrical business will be fine in the long-term. If people were really missing the movies, you would think the market would come out in droves and things would be better than it is now, no?

 

I also have zero confidence that Delta will be the last major variant obstacle and that we're still gonna see issues well into the fall. I will admit though that delays probably won't happen and that it will be more of a day-and-date kind of deal. But even so, this stuff is still not good for us who enjoy theater exclusivity and will sting for theater owners hard.

 

Basically, I see little faith in things getting better from a box office perspective.

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Holy shit you guys are out of your mind today.  Take a xanax and stop losing your shit.  

 

Lol that we suddenly are moving films all over the place again.  You are all just making things up at this point out of fear.  

 

Just this week, multiple movies had marketing kick offs for the fall. 

 

Delta variant numbers are nothing at this point compared to the pandemic in 2020.  Deaths and hospitalizations are not nearing anywhere near what the percentage to cases was. 

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People are going to get sick again in their lives.  The quicker people remember that most human beings ended up with at least 1-2 colds and maybe a case of something else a couple times in a normal year, the better.  

 

It is as if people think that nobody is ever going to get a headache and congestion or a chest cold that makes you feel like shit for a few days or even weeks.  

 

What are we even talking about here?

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2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Holy shit you guys are out of your mind today.  Take a xanax and stop losing your shit.  

 

Lol that we suddenly are moving films all over the place again.  You are all just making things up at this point out of fear.  

 

Just this week, multiple movies had marketing kick offs for the fall. 

 

Delta variant numbers are nothing at this point compared to the pandemic in 2020.  Deaths and hospitalizations are not nearing anywhere near what the percentage to cases was. 

 

Nope.

 

CINEMA IS DEAD!

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Things in France are looking terrible. Macron is being hard with new rules and antivax people are standing firmly, this is not going to end well for them.

 

"French Box Office Plunges 70% Due to New Entry Rules Requiring Proof of Vaccination or PCR Test"

 

https://variety.com/2021/film/global/france-vaccination-mandatory-b-o-drop-1235026283/

 

 

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The constant fear is the real disease even more than COVID Delta or whatever could hope for at this point.  

 

I'm a strong supporter of vaccinations, and you can see from all the data that the vaccines work and protect you.  Even if you get a breakthrough case, it is universally mild and you don't end up in the hospital.  

 

Knowing that science, what the hell are vaccinated people doing by not getting back out to life?  It's ridiculous.  

 

People scream about following the science, but then when presented with the fact that they might get a headache and some congestion for a few days they want to lock themselves indoors for another year.  

 

It is maddening.  

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The numbers deadline has would be pretty atrocious… but not nearly as atrocious as some of the takes on the last few pages 😆   
 

There’s definitely some hint of delta in these numbers imo, but like — not that much? If the top 4 do 47M, vs reasonable expectations of what, maybe 56M (16+16+12+12) that’s far less of a miss then we saw on countless weekend pre-covid.   
 

Shang-Chi is in a very worrying spot, but this storm should have pretty much run it’s course by Oct or so. A couple things might go day and date (though several already were) or make minor shuffles, but this is hardly spring 2020 redux.

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1 hour ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Bad weekend,  Lucy more successful than Black Widow 😄

 

Well you have three factors that really hurt BW.

 

1) ~100 m going to Premium Access

2) No China release

3) and the pandemic

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If you are vaccinated, you almost have an obligation to get your ass back out in the world and stop worrying and being consumed with negativity.  

 

Take you and the family or your significant other out to eat.  Go to a bar and have a drink.  Go see a movie.  Shop local or go see a concert.  

 

The point of the vaccine was to get back to life.  Go do it.  

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13 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Knowing that science, what the hell are vaccinated people doing by not getting back out to life?  It's ridiculous.  


In part, because some of us are living with people who can’t be vaccinated right now (for a variety of reasons). 
 

In terms of this week’s openers, OLD’s budget was $18m. It’ll be fine. 

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9 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

The constant fear is the real disease even more than COVID Delta or whatever could hope for at this point.  

 

I'm a strong supporter of vaccinations, and you can see from all the data that the vaccines work and protect you.  Even if you get a breakthrough case, it is universally mild and you don't end up in the hospital.  

 

Knowing that science, what the hell are vaccinated people doing by not getting back out to life?  It's ridiculous.  

 

People scream about following the science, but then when presented with the fact that they might get a headache and some congestion for a few days they want to lock themselves indoors for another year.  

 

It is maddening.  

 

It's hard to not get nervy when the press sticks to the story 24 hours/day, 7 days/week.  I mean, my news just reported they expect another viral "peak" in late August/early September for my area with no definition of what that means...so folks of course think of the winter one...

 

And my area is currently at 2.2% positivity with matching case levels (ie - not out of balance for the percent)...so some sort of "we think about this much" would have been way more useful than "peak"...

 

But negativity has always sold, so we also have the problem that the press has no incentive to give up the negativity...

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3 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


In part, because some of us are living with people who can’t be vaccinated right now (for a variety of reasons). 
 

In terms of this week’s openers, OLD’s budget was $18m. It’ll be fine. 

 

Agreed, and am sympathetic to anyone in those situations.  

 

Way too many aren't though and are still staying locked inside.  That needs to stop.  

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3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's hard to not get nervy when the press sticks to the story 24 hours/day, 7 days/week.  I mean, my news just reported they expect another viral "peak" in late August/early September for my area with no definition of what that means...so folks of course think of the winter one...

 

And my area is currently at 2.2% positivity with matching case levels (ie - not out of balance for the percent)...so some sort of "we think about this much" would have been way more useful than "peak"...

 

But negativity has always sold, so we also have the problem that the press has no incentive to give up the negativity...

 

I love the press and news, but at some point you just have to turn it off while still keeping yourself updated on the science.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

 

 

I’ve just seen Old and I love that a film like that is potentially #1 in July lol. A $15m start is fine for a film with a budget of $18m whichever way you slice it. 
 

I predicted $12m for Snake Eyes last weekend so I feel good about that now. 

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26 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

If you are vaccinated, you almost have an obligation to get your ass back out in the world and stop worrying and being consumed with negativity.  

 

Take you and the family or your significant other out to eat.  Go to a bar and have a drink.  Go see a movie.  Shop local or go see a concert.  

 

The point of the vaccine was to get back to life.  Go do it.  

That's the problem though Delta seems to be hitting teens and children harder than some of the other strains. 

 

Just one example (which is super distressing if you don't like seeing children in pain btw so just a warning there): https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2021/07/16/indonesia-coronavirus-children-covid-19-schubert-pkg-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/coronavirus-intl/

 

Also I'm sure you are probably preaching to the choir as I imagine most people who are vaccinated in this thread are back to seeing movies, hell I'm not vaccinated (and won't be for months) but living in NZ means I've been going to the movies at least a couple of times a months for most of the last 12 months. The problem is the general audience (in particular families with children) have fear of going to the cinema or other places and there isn't too much we can do about, we just have to accept that is an aspect of the domestic marketplace right now. Internationally in many places it is obviously worse, particularly where vaccination rates are low like my example of Indonesia. 

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