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Eric Madrigal

Flop Weekend Thread (7/23-25): Old 16.5M, Snake Eyes 13.35, Black Widow 11.6 (-56%), Space Jam 9.56 (-69%) | Theaters are dead? Long live streaming?

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7 hours ago, Menor said:

Imo as Delta spreads we will be seeing more disappointing openings and drops. A big part of the decent numbers in late May and June was the feeling that the virus was getting over and we were on our way out. That is now gone. BW we knew wasn't having good legs for a while but that is a very poor drop for Space Jam which didn't seem to be really hated by audiences either. Day and date can't be helping the legs of these films either. 

 

Americans think democracy means having the right to be an antivaxxer, spread disease and be a factory for variants.

 

China had record breaking box office numbers and life was back to normal for nearly a year already, but China bad, communism etc. 

 

Until America deals properly with the cancerous GQP - and that means actual consequences, things will continue to deteriorate from here.

 

7 hours ago, Snake Eric said:

I don't know how long this Delta stuff will last, and I know people will think I'm being paranoid (I don't care), but I'm now convinced we're getting a few more movie delays. What movies they will be I have no idea, but studios will be piss-scared to release anything after this weekend. We're bound to get more variants in the months ahead too. Antivaxxers will keep this shit going for a long time.

 

No, you just need to get the balls to ban antivaxxers. Treating them like they have a valid point of view is political and moronic.

 

6 hours ago, Snake Eric said:

It's more than just the openers. Them doing poorly is whatever to me. My issue is just at the holdovers and the market in general. Black Widow's drop is abysmal. Space Jam's 70% fall is absurd, even compared to other HBO Max titles. And I know that people will talk about WOM and streaming and piracy until they're blue in the face for justifiable and valid reasons. But it's not like Delta isn't having any impacts at all here.

 

And yeah, outside of Quiet Place, F9, and Widow, things really aren't that great. The other openers are still pretty low, and while legs are compensating for it, it's still not healthy enough to make me think theatrical business will be fine in the long-term. If people were really missing the movies, you would think the market would come out in droves and things would be better than it is now, no?

 

I also have zero confidence that Delta will be the last major variant obstacle and that we're still gonna see issues well into the fall. I will admit though that delays probably won't happen and that it will be more of a day-and-date kind of deal. But even so, this stuff is still not good for us who enjoy theater exclusivity and will sting for theater owners hard.

 

Basically, I see little faith in things getting better from a box office perspective.

 

How many times do we need to say piracy and PA is killing BW? Also does anyone really care about GI Joe? And for those that do, what do they think of a minority actor headlining it? And Golding is a bad actor as well. 

 

Space Jam acted more like a fanboy movie than a family one. There are a lot more explanations. 

 

6 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Things in France are looking terrible. Macron is being hard with new rules and antivax people are standing firmly, this is not going to end well for them.

 

"French Box Office Plunges 70% Due to New Entry Rules Requiring Proof of Vaccination or PCR Test"

 

https://variety.com/2021/film/global/france-vaccination-mandatory-b-o-drop-1235026283/

 

 

 

Antivax people are antisocial. They deserve to lose their rights. Maybe they should say if you don't get vaccinated for non-medical reasons, if you do get covid, you are deprioritized for care. Freedom, right? Play stupid games, win stupid prizes. These idiots don't see the consequences of their actions and when they do - like in America, begging to be vaccinated before being intubated, it's too late. Stop treating idiots with kid gloves.

 

5 hours ago, Jamiem said:

That's the problem though Delta seems to be hitting teens and children harder than some of the other strains. 

 

Just one example (which is super distressing if you don't like seeing children in pain btw so just a warning there): https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2021/07/16/indonesia-coronavirus-children-covid-19-schubert-pkg-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/coronavirus-intl/

 

Also I'm sure you are probably preaching to the choir as I imagine most people who are vaccinated in this thread are back to seeing movies, hell I'm not vaccinated (and won't be for months) but living in NZ means I've been going to the movies at least a couple of times a months for most of the last 12 months. The problem is the general audience (in particular families with children) have fear of going to the cinema or other places and there isn't too much we can do about, we just have to accept that is an aspect of the domestic marketplace right now. Internationally in many places it is obviously worse, particularly where vaccination rates are low like my example of Indonesia. 

 

Once again, that means that instead of punishing those who can't get vaccinated (kids) punish the wankers who are refusing to take the vaccine and allowing spread and the variants. These clowns should not be treated lightly. 

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I doubt anything moves. 2022 is already pretty crowded, and the studios have been paying interest on these films for way too long. At some point you just need to dump them. And move on.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Cap said:

I doubt anything moves. 2022 is already pretty crowded, and the studios have been paying interest on these films for way too long. At some point you just need to dump them. And move on.

 

 

NWH definetly seems like a movie that will move. Eternals and Shang-Chi will be releasing this year for sure.

My bet they move MCU by one more slot.

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B- CS grade for Snake Eyes is much worse news for that movie than a C+ is for Old (that's actually pretty good by genre standards tbh).

 

There's nothing about these numbers worth having a meltdown over when they were expected. Old always seemed much more in line with a The Visit than a Split, and the low budget guarantees it'll turn a nice profit. Snake Eyes looked doomed from the beginning and would've flopped even in its original October 2020 spot. Henry Golding deserves better anyway.

 

Even the drops feel expected. Yeah, 70% is rough for Space Jam, but it makes sense when you consider it can be easily watched at home for free via a streaming subscription and WOM hardly seems glowing. Everyone who really wanted to see it on the big screen likely did so last weekend. Same applies to Black Widow. Neither movie seems to have much left in the tank when they've already burned through so much of their audience.

 

This weekend won't have any impact on the industry changing course on their current release dates/plans.

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34 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

NWH definetly seems like a movie that will move. Eternals and Shang-Chi will be releasing this year for sure.

My bet they move MCU by one more slot.

Why? Like, honestly? Why would NWH move when it has the best release date?

 

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18 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 Snake Eyes looked doomed from the beginning and would've flopped even in its original October 2020 spot. Henry Golding deserves better anyway.

 

He deserves better? Have you seen the film? I would say he is the main reason why the film is bad; same expression throughout the film; cannot feel his emotions, showed his lack of range in acting.

 

And fight scenes involving him especially are shaky, filled with fast cuts (probably so audience won't see the stunt doubles). It is obvious he didn't have or spend much time for martial arts training prior to this film.

 

Andrew Koji fight scenes in the same freaking movie is so much better..

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Australia decided to continue the lockdown on it's most populous state, could last for months, and theaters are closed.

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/23/australias-most-populous-state-declares-national-emergency-over-covid-outbreak

 

I'm starting to feel that no movie will be very big this year, maybe even next year. Things foreign are just real bad and vaccination rates are very slow. I think BW will take another hit OS, i already think this is being suffering because of the foreign situation since OW but things are getting worse every weekend.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Cap said:

Why? Like, honestly? Why would NWH move when it has the best release date?

 

But what's the point if most markets remain closed? Spider-man is huge in Asia , are they going to risk all that to release the movie in Christmas? 

I am betting we will hear the news of moving by mid-August. 

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Just now, Madhuvan said:

But what's the point if most markets remain closed? Spider-man is huge in Asia , are they going to risk all that to release the movie in Christmas? 

I am betting we will hear the news of moving by mid-August. 

Nah it won't.

By December - Asia will be much better, probably fine as their restrictions are already in place. Question will be on situation in US, UK, Europe.

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9 hours ago, Menor said:

Imo as Delta spreads we will be seeing more disappointing openings and drops. A big part of the decent numbers in late May and June was the feeling that the virus was getting over and we were on our way out. That is now gone. BW we knew wasn't having good legs for a while but that is a very poor drop for Space Jam which didn't seem to be really hated by audiences either. Day and date can't be helping the legs of these films either. 

It does feel unfortunately the immediate future is bleaker than what we hoped. Compare the mood now to when A Quiet Place Part II opened back in May. 

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12 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

 

He deserves better? Have you seen the film? I would say he is the main reason why the film is bad; same expression throughout the film; cannot feel his emotions, showed his lack of range in acting.

 

And fight scenes involving him especially are shaky, filled with fast cuts (probably so audience won't see the stunt doubles). It is obvious he didn't have or spend much time for martial arts training prior to this film.

 

Andrew Koji fight scenes in the same freaking movie is so much better..

He was great in Crazy Rich Asians. Also pretty good in A Simple Favor. I'm sure he'll continue to get solid work even after this unsuccessful action star phase passes over.

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1 hour ago, The Dark Shape said:

No Time To Die has been burning a hole in MGM's pockets for a year and a half. The marketplace has shown with F9 that films can still make $600 million+ in the current marketplace (even if they suck and audiences don't seem to like them very much).

 

There's no way Bond moves.

The marketplace is looking worse than it was when F9 released in most of its markets (May). I'm not sure if October will actually be worse but MGM might not want to be in a position again where it is a month before release, and the situation is a lot worse.

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12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

He was great in Crazy Rich Asians. Also pretty good in A Simple Favor. I'm sure he'll continue to get solid work even after this unsuccessful action star phase passes over.

We can only hope even the studio execs skip this movie...

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7 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

We can only hope even the studio execs skip this movie...

He won't be affected much from this. It's not like Star power is a thing nowadays barring few. Even Ryan Reynolds is not a draw beside Deadpool.  Free guy is coming to bomb even if it's good.

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Blaming actors for failure of movie nowadays is arbitrary. Considering even The Rock is gonna give big flop next weekend and we all know his acting skills. 

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