Weekend Thread (7/30-8/1) | Jungle Cruise 34.2M DOM, 27.6 OS, 30M PA | Green Knight 6.78, Old 6.76, Widow 6.4, Stillwater 5.1

[john2000]

What ruins the image of jungle cruise is the budget

 

[Krissykins]

5 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I am with you here. TSS opening to 30m should be considered disaster and not a win for anyone. Considering it won't even get PA money and marketing was much hyper than that of JC. 

But TSS is available at no extra cost… so more people can watch it for free. 

 

I’ll find it hilarious if people are saying Jungle Cruise is doing well and then pile on TSS next weekend 😂😂 

 

 

[CJohn]

Jungle Cruise would have been an easy 50M opener without COVID. It is a lost franchise for Disney.

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, CJohn said:

Jungle Cruise would have been an easy 50M opener without COVID. It is a lost franchise for Disney.

Don't think a $50 mil opening would've been good enough to start a franchise to a film with such a big-budget.

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm not sure why people are thinking that @Plain Old Tele would pretend that it isn't terrible for TSS if it opens to similar numbers. I'm pretty sure he would think it's terrible like most people here. Weird whataboutism.

Because TSS is the forum’s new whipping boy for some reason. People will try and twist anything to put down whatever they decide to hate in these instances. Not sure why this is the one getting targeted tho

[DAJK]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Jungle Cruise would have been an easy 50M opener without COVID. It is a lost franchise for Disney.

If it can have Cruella legs and get to 110 domestic or so, and does decently overseas (250 give or take) I could see Disney realizing that this has more potential, and try a sequel with a slightly smaller budget.

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Skipper Eric said:

Because TSS is the forum’s new whipping boy for some reason. People will try and twist anything to put down whatever they decide to hate in these instances. Not sure why this is the one getting targeted tho

Meh, pretty weak explanation imo. Gets the causality  backwards.    
 

TSS isn’t going to get piled on if it does abysmal number because it’s “the forum’s new whipping boy.” It feels like it’s the forum’s new whipping boy precisely because it looks like it will do abysmal numbers.   
 

If it can turn that around (which I hope for but am not the most optimistic at this point) then it won’t be 👍

Edited July 31, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[CJohn]

25 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Don't think a $50 mil opening would've been good enough to start a franchise to a film with such a big-budget.

It is a Disney movie, those usually have good legs. A 50M+ opening would translate into a strong 160M+ DOM total. Add to that a 350M OS total and you get over 500M WW.

[Krissykins]

21 minutes ago, DAJK said:

If it can have Cruella legs and get to 110 domestic or so, and does decently overseas (250 give or take) I could see Disney realizing that this has more potential, and try a sequel with a slightly smaller budget.

It just got beaten by Old in Spain, lol. $250m OS might be a struggle. 

[Plain Old Tele]

I mean, y’all just pulling numbers from your ass and then assuming Disney will/won’t be happy. 
 

I know this is a pandemic and everyone is still adjusting expectations lower, but expectations aren’t money. Best case scenario is JC making back half of its budget domestically — that’s lousy (even if expected).

[Legion Again]

Old+SE OW: 30.2M

Old+SE 2nd wknd: looks like high 9s   
 

It’s another 67% drop. Hopefully JC breaks the pattern, lol.

[cax16]

Think this all depends on perception tbh(with respects to TSS), People see comic book movie and have big expectations which is fair but not all comic book movies fall under the same circumstances.

 

I’ve been saying for awhile now that the first movie was really going to hold this one back and I believe that more then ever now after seeing presales. I think marketing and trailers have been fine, not great but that’s not what’s turning people off, it’s seeing Harley and others from the first movie (and even BOP) and thinking this will be more of the same, and I don’t blame anyone for that. 
 

I’m not expecting big numbers, especially domestically but we’ll see what happens. 
 

If you’re saying JC opening is fine at 30m then TSS should be fine at 30m as well imo, I’m not saying that but I’ve seen a lot of people say that in this thread.  I’ve had no expectations for any movies this year other then BW and GvK.

[grey ghost]

37 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

But TSS is available at no extra cost… so more people can watch it for free. 

 

I’ll find it hilarious if people are saying Jungle Cruise is doing well and then pile on TSS next weekend 😂😂 

 

 

 

I mean the last Suicide Squad opened to 135m. Of course TSS is going to be held to a higher standard than Jungle Cruise.

 

And Warner Bros not recieving any extra revenue from streaming is a disadvantage. 

[Plain Old Tele]

Old’s gonna end up being more successful than either of these bigger openers in the next few weeks. 

[Legion Again]

As far as expectations setting for TSS, doesn’t help that BOP has it at 35-60 (though I can only assume it has come down in this week’s private update).

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

I mean, y’all just pulling numbers from your ass and then assuming Disney will/won’t be happy. 
 

I know this is a pandemic and everyone is still adjusting expectations lower, but expectations aren’t money. Best case scenario is JC making back half of its budget domestically — that’s lousy (even if expected).

I mean, there's not a whole lot they (or any studio, really) can do now short of delaying everything until the pandemic is officially gone and no more (which won't happen for these finished movies that have already been sitting on the shelf awaiting release for over a year). Especially with fears of the delta variant on the rise, to the point where one movie set to come out over the next two months (Clifford the Big Red Dog) has already blinked away again because of it. At some point you gotta just rip off the band-aid, take the L and move on.

Edited July 31, 2021 by filmlover

[Eric Duncan]

21 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Meh, pretty weak explanation imo. Gets the causality  backwards.    
 

TSS isn’t going to get piled on if it does abysmal number because it’s “the forum’s new whipping boy.” It feels like it’s the forum’s new whipping boy precisely because it looks like it will do abysmal numbers.   
 

If it can turn that around (which I hope for but am not the most optimistic at this point) then it won’t be 👍

Either way, I think I should also clarify that the concept of a forum whooping boy is garbage, especially in pandemic times when all movies are suffering and will continue to suffer even into 2022 and that this forum would be a lot better if people didn’t dogpile on movies as hard as they do.

[Valonqar]

Perception: you don't want your long running franchise to appear fallible. You want it to look strong which includes beating the odds. When that doesn't happen, you look weak and excuses even if they make sense make you weaker. That's all that is. Jungle Cruise may have been a franchise starter (or killer now more likely) but nobody cares about that. Everyone's eyes are on Marvel performance that should've been miraculous (no, not really but we are talking about perception remember?) yet it's the opposite of it, and hasty release of streaming numbers resulted in attention being drawn to the disappointing numbers (vs 200M budget before P&A, hello!) instead of hiding them. So next in line is TSS for DC already suffered a blow when WW84 flopped. 

[Plain Old Tele]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I mean, there's not a whole lot they (or any studio, really) can do now short of delaying everything until the pandemic is officially gone and no more (which won't happen for these finished movies that have already been sitting on the shelf awaiting release for over a year). Especially with fears of the delta variant on the rise, to the point where one movie set to come out over the next two months (Clifford the Big Red Dog) has already blinked away again because of it. At some point you gotta just rip off the band-aid, take the L and move on.

Sure, of course. I’m saying it’s still an L though, that’s all. 

[Cap]

16 minutes ago, cax16 said:

i’ve been saying for awhile now that the first movie was really going to hold this one back and I believe that more then ever now after seeing presales. I think marketing and trailers have been fine, not great but that’s not what’s turning people off, it’s seeing Harley and others from the first movie (and even BOP) and thinking this will be more of the same, and I don’t blame anyone for that. 

Yahtzee. 
 

And to me this is where the HBO Max release is going to be the kiss of death for this film. If people are making assumptions based off the first movie, which will result in them not rushing out to see the second one opening weekend; then, It will be very easy for them to just tune in at home to watch it if there is good word of mouth circulating this weekend from folks have seen it.

 

There’s no real chance for this to leg its way out.  At least, that’s my take.