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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (7/30-8/1) | Jungle Cruise 34.2M DOM, 27.6 OS, 30M PA | Green Knight 6.78, Old 6.76, Widow 6.4, Stillwater 5.1

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5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Perception: you don't want your long running franchise to appear fallible. You want it to look strong which includes beating the odds. When that doesn't happen, you look weak and excuses even if they make sense make you weaker. That's all that is. Jungle Cruise may have been a franchise starter (or killer now more likely) but nobody cares about that. Everyone's eyes are on Marvel performance that should've been miraculous (no, not really but we are talking about perception remember?) yet it's the opposite of it, and hasty release of streaming numbers resulted in attention being drawn to the disappointing numbers (vs 200M budget before P&A, hello!) instead of hiding them. So next in line is TSS for DC already suffered a blow when WW84 flopped. 


These are all largely perceptions from here, from us. They may (or may not) be what Disney (or any other studio) thinks internally, and we should stop assuming our assumptions (and expectations and perceptions from those assumptions) mean anything at all other than us banging our fingers on keyboards. 

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9 minutes ago, Cap said:

Yahtzee. 
 

And to me this is where the HBO Max release is going to be the kiss of death for this film. If people are making assumptions based off the first movie, which will result in them not rushing out to see the second one opening weekend; then, It will be very easy for them to just tune in at home to watch it if there is good word of mouth circulating this weekend from folks have seen it.

 

There’s no real chance for this to leg its way out.  At least, that’s my take. 

 

 

Yup, exactly.

 

I assume WB knows this and already have expectations lowered but we’ll see. 

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Given all the baggage it already has, The Suicide Squad would have to reach truly cataclysmic levels (like worse than Wonder Woman 1984's heavily diminished performance during the worst of the pandemic) to become an actual embarrassment (FWIW I think the only true all-around loser during this summer of recovery and diminished expectations has been, unfortunately, In the Heights, which really went all out touting itself as a must-see event both before and during the pandemic only to end up discovering the interest was never there).

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Let’s be honest, TSS could make $1 worldwide and WB would still push ahead with a sequel/YAR (yet another remake).

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4 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Yup, exactly.

 

I assume WB knows this and already have expectations lowered but we’ll see. 

Or they’re not concerned because they think it’s just gonna add subscribers to HBO max. Which I still don’t necessarily agree with. I feel like the reason people subscribe to streaming services is for long-term series. 

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1 minute ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Let’s be honest, TSS could make $1 worldwide and WB would still push ahead with a sequel/YAR (yet another remake).

Gotta love the Netflix Business Model

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34 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Old+SE OW: 30.2M

Old+SE 2nd wknd: looks like high 9s   
 

It’s another 67% drop. Hopefully JC breaks the pattern, lol.

 

I know in the North most schools start the week before or the Labor day week but most of Florida outside of the Miami area are already going back to school the week of the 9th.  Not sure how widespread this early is but it is out there. 

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7 minutes ago, jimisawesome said:

 

I know in the North most schools start the week before or the Labor day week but most of Florida outside of the Miami area are already going back to school the week of the 9th.  Not sure how widespread this early is but it is out there. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


These are all largely perceptions from here, from us. They may (or may not) be what Disney (or any other studio) thinks internally, and we should stop assuming our assumptions (and expectations and perceptions from those assumptions) mean anything at all other than us banging our fingers on keyboards. 

 

I agree with you but there's no denying that sudden release of streaming number did smack of damage control, which the title of that weekend thread promptly lampooned. :lol:

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12 minutes ago, Cap said:

Or they’re not concerned because they think it’s just gonna add subscribers to HBO max. Which I still don’t necessarily agree with. I feel like the reason people subscribe to streaming services is for long-term series. 

That was the goal this year and it’s been going ok but I couldn’t agree more( and I think WB knows as well) series are the way to go to get subs, and then you can throw in the odd movie like they’re doing for DC as well, they want to release 4 DC movies theatrically and two for Max a year. 

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Looooots of the next nine months of so of programming will be about taking the L and moving on. Jungle Cruise did perfectly well given the circumstances. 

 

Older adults are going to be the last to go back to theaters-- I know many who are so used to streaming and/or so afraid of covid they don't see the point-- which means stuff like Green Knight and Stillwater will only be able to muster 2/3s of what they could've opened to normally. This forum is all about the big openers and numbers but that trend is going to hurt theaters as much as the tentpoles going day-and-date. Counterprogramming is crucial to keeping these pesky theaters afloat.

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I feel like if the situation keeps deteriorating what's gonna happen is that the market ceases to be able to support more than maybe two-three films at a time, like the case was back in spring. That's going to spur more underperformers (relative to already low expectations) and thus spur more delays/streaming shifts. Not sure how many studios are going to want to keep taking the L for much longer.

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A movie called 'Suicide Squad' featuring some of the same characters is currently on Netflix

 

WB needs to rethink their titles

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The target opening for Suicide Squad 2 is probably anything over $32 million. It will be enough for it to get the positive headlines, as it will be the biggest opening for a WB film since the pandemic and they will probably claim some viewership record on HBO Max too. The box office analysts on the press will say that the same day availability on streaming for no extra cost it's what prevented it from reaching F9 and Black Window's levels.

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Our local district in east Texas starts Monday. We are an oddity though as we are a 4 day week and so run 2 weeks earlier than the rest. Others are all going back between 9th and 16th. Crazy how quick it happened this summer. Local kiddie movies still run all of next month though so 🤷‍♂️ lol. 

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I am just glad to see double digits again even if its inflated from previews. The ying yang of bigger and smaller films has at least kept summer from being spring like boring. 

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2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Given all the baggage it already has, The Suicide Squad would have to reach truly cataclysmic levels (like worse than Wonder Woman 1984's heavily diminished performance during the worst of the pandemic) to become an actual embarrassment (FWIW I think the only true all-around loser during this summer of recovery and diminished expectations has been, unfortunately, In the Heights, which really went all out touting itself as a must-see event both before and during the pandemic only to end up discovering the interest was never there).

It just feels like musicals face an issue with audiences in general. And this didn't have a big showstopping number unlike The Greatest Showman.

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The COvid news in the US is not going to get better anytime soon. Biden statment on Firday that  restrictions are coming back shows that. The Delta Resurgence will dominated the news for the few weeks,and I can't  help but think that will hurt bos office badly.

And you are already seeing some releases pushed back. "Clifford"is being pushed back,others will follow. The Autumn scheduled is definently at risk.

Goid, I hate the Antivaxxers and the politicans who are catering to them.Throw the Anti Maskers in with that group also.'

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3 hours ago, Gopher said:

Looooots of the next nine months of so of programming will be about taking the L and moving on. Jungle Cruise did perfectly well given the circumstances. 

 

Older adults are going to be the last to go back to theaters-- I know many who are so used to streaming and/or so afraid of covid they don't see the point-- which means stuff like Green Knight and Stillwater will only be able to muster 2/3s of what they could've opened to normally. This forum is all about the big openers and numbers but that trend is going to hurt theaters as much as the tentpoles going day-and-date. Counterprogramming is crucial to keeping these pesky theaters afloat.

As someone who’s worked at movie theaters since he was 15, this is 100% correct about counterprogramming. Theaters NEED that stuff to pull decent numbers too

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