Weekend Thread (7/30-8/1) | Jungle Cruise 34.2M DOM, 27.6 OS, 30M PA | Green Knight 6.78, Old 6.76, Widow 6.4, Stillwater 5.1

[charlie Jatinder]

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 148869/820252 1837689.84 4623 shows

MTC2 - 136.5K(DBOX adjusted). 4319 shows (about 1.43m)

These are day 2 or OD?

 

Yday SAT PS ATP was like $10.5, asking that's why.

 

Edit: It's SAT. If it finish around what I expect (177k and 170k), I expect $11.5-12M SAT.

Edited August 1, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[RRA]

3 hours ago, Napoleon said:

The target opening for Suicide Squad 2 is probably anything over $32 million. It will be enough for it to get the positive headlines, as it will be the biggest opening for a WB film since the pandemic and they will probably claim some viewership record on HBO Max too. The box office analysts on the press will say that the same day availability on streaming for no extra cost it's what prevented it from reaching F9 and Black Window's levels.

Just for fun…what OW number would we have expected from TSS in an AU where there is no plague, no Max/PA/whatever day and date streaming?

 

70?

Edited August 1, 2021 by RRA

[ThomasNicole]

So maybe 35-36M OW.

 

Great

 

[Chicago]

40 minutes ago, RRA said:

Ever seen a movie you didn’t like? Then a sequel comes, you’re not exactly enthusiastic about it surely? Even if people tell you “mate it’s better its awesomez!” how much of that would sway you? Something something first impressions…
 

Tracking will pick up next week as we go into the hone stretch but all things considered with the landscape plus the other baggage TSS has, I’m not that surprised.

Winter soldier

Infinity war

Logan

Thor Ragnarok

BVS (opening weekend)

 

All these movies arguably had weak predecessors yet created a pull. I think people are more forgiving with the Comic Book franchise. I do get what you're saying but 30m tracking is just shocking. After seeing the film, it just feels like something that should be a hit, obviously that means very little.

[RRA]

10 minutes ago, Chicago said:

Winter soldier

Infinity war

Logan

Thor Ragnarok

BVS (opening weekend)

 

All these movies arguably had weak predecessors yet created a pull. I think people are more forgiving with the Comic Book franchise. I do get what you're saying but 30m tracking is just shocking. After seeing the film, it just feels like something that should be a hit, obviously that means very little.

There’s a flaw with the sequels you picked: none of the first 4 were direct sequels to movies that were outright hated. Look back at the reviews for say AOU or TDW, they’re middling at worst. Nothing on the visceral “screw this movie” level of the first SS did, which is harder to win back folks from. People can be forgiving to a point if say a part 1 was liked for example like Avengers or Thor. It’s like if we ever get Wonder Woman 3, people theoretically would forgive that limpwrist sequel because they liked the first one.
 

As for BVS, you do have a point.

[narniadis]

14 minutes ago, Chicago said:

Winter soldier

Infinity war

Logan

Thor Ragnarok

BVS (opening weekend)

 

All these movies arguably had weak predecessors yet created a pull. I think people are more forgiving with the Comic Book franchise. I do get what you're saying but 30m tracking is just shocking. After seeing the film, it just feels like something that should be a hit, obviously that means very little.

You show your lack of understanding about box office with this post. Logan is about the only one that really would be an ok pic to make the argument and it had such a change from what the rest were that it was sold 100% differently. The rest of them were either different completely (BvS/ThorR) or weren't exactly the direct sequel since the MCU doesn't play the same. 

In this case take BvS and fast forward to Justice League.... thats what is happening with TSS, only the difference here is that SS is apparently a good/great film. It will bear the burden of its predecessor fair or unfairly. 

[RRA]

I’m really curious now: anybody think Disney might reveal PA numbers on Sunday for JC?

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, RRA said:

I’m really curious now: anybody think Disney might reveal PA numbers on Sunday for JC?

Yes

[narniadis]

14 minutes ago, RRA said:

I’m really curious now: anybody think Disney might reveal PA numbers on Sunday for JC?

They cornered themselves by saying they would earlier in the week. Cant stop them from not of course, but they need good press right now. 

[Chicago]

43 minutes ago, narniadis said:

You show your lack of understanding about box office with this post. Logan is about the only one that really would be an ok pic to make the argument and it had such a change from what the rest were that it was sold 100% differently. The rest of them were either different completely (BvS/ThorR) or weren't exactly the direct sequel since the MCU doesn't play the same. 

In this case take BvS and fast forward to Justice League.... thats what is happening with TSS, only the difference here is that SS is apparently a good/great film. It will bear the burden of its predecessor fair or unfairly. 

I'm simply giving examples of how audiences have been known to forgive mistakes. All the film's I mentioned saw sizable increases. I'm not suggesting TSS is going to out-perform the previous film, but I don't think questioning and opening as low as 30m, just a quarter of the first's shows a lack of understanding. Even your Justice League comparison wouldn't suggest an opening as low as 30m

 

TSS is clearly being treated like a mini reboot/clean slate. It got an R rating, it looks fresh, now has positive buzz and it's a Big budget Comic Book movie. It's not getting beaten by some damn Jungle Cruise 

Edited August 1, 2021 by Chicago

[RRA]

3 minutes ago, Chicago said:

I'm simply giving examples of how audiences have been known to forgive mistakes. All the film's I mentioned saw sizable increases. I'm not suggesting TSS is going to out-perform the previous film, but I don't think questioning and opening as low as 30m, just a quarter of the first's shows a lack of understanding. Even your Justice League comparison wouldn't suggest an opening as low as 30m

 

TSS is clearly being treated like a mini reboot/clean slate. It got an R rating, it looks fresh, now has positive buzz and it's a Big budget Comic Book movie. It's not getting beaten by some damn Jungle Cruise 

It shouldn’t but If somehow it does, we’ll blame you for jinxing it. 😁

[ThomasNicole]

27 minutes ago, RRA said:

I’m really curious now: anybody think Disney might reveal PA numbers on Sunday for JC?

Yes because they say the numbers will be revealed.

 

But i'm sure they regret it now because there's no need.

 

Maybe they're expecting the movie to open with only 20M or so and think it would be good press to bring aditional money to the table, but since the movie already overperformed it's unnecessary, media will consider this a case of success with box office only.

[Legion Again]

If JC really goes to 35M here I would not consider that an easy bar for TSS whatsoever.   
 

Or an unassailable bar, by any means.

[narniadis]

19 minutes ago, Chicago said:

I'm simply giving examples of how audiences have been known to forgive mistakes. All the film's I mentioned saw sizable increases. I'm not suggesting TSS is going to out-perform the previous film, but I don't think questioning and opening as low as 30m, just a quarter of the first's shows a lack of understanding. Even your Justice League comparison wouldn't suggest an opening as low as 30m

 

TSS is clearly being treated like a mini reboot/clean slate. It got an R rating, it looks fresh, now has positive buzz and it's a Big budget Comic Book movie. It's not getting beaten by some damn Jungle Cruise 

Dude, all the board is trying to tell you is that the data for a big opening is not there yet. Can that change between now and Thursday  - sure. I personally am expecting/hoping for an opening between 35-40m but its going to need to really power up in presales to get there. 

You are missing many many things in your analysis since your fan heart is the pair of glasses you are looking through. Not mocking just encouraging you to give the US members and trackers the space they have earned. There are lots of reasons for the film to do ok under normal circumstances, but this is not a normal period for the box office. 

[cax16]

Wonder what the Rock meant by this on Instagram.

 

 

“For now, I’ll just say word on the street is Jungle Cruise is performing in the market place by a measure that no other movie has done this summer”

 

Maybe this did really well on PA? 

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, Chicago said:

Winter soldier

Infinity war

Logan

Thor Ragnarok

BVS (opening weekend)

 

All these movies arguably had weak predecessors yet created a pull. I think people are more forgiving with the Comic Book franchise. I do get what you're saying but 30m tracking is just shocking. After seeing the film, it just feels like something that should be a hit, obviously that means very little.

To go back a ways:

 

The 1979 Star Trek movie was a huge dissapointment.

Star Trek 2:The Wrath Of Khan prettymuch saved the film franchise.

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, cax16 said:

Wonder what the Rock meant by this on Instagram.

 

 

“For now, I’ll just say word on the street is Jungle Cruise is performing in the market place by a measure that no other movie has done this summer”

 

Maybe this did really well on PA? 

Lol, he hypes up all his movies like this. I remember him saying shit like this with Baywatch and Skyscraper.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Wonder what the Rock meant by this on Instagram.

 

 

“For now, I’ll just say word on the street is Jungle Cruise is performing in the market place by a measure that no other movie has done this summer”

 

Maybe this did really well on PA? 

Family OW record is my guess?

[RRA]

43 minutes ago, dudalb said:

To go back a ways:

 

The 1979 Star Trek movie was a huge dissapointment.

Star Trek 2:The Wrath Of Khan prettymuch saved the film franchise.

WOK iirc had at the time the biggest opening day ever (or was that Trek 3? I don’t remember.)

[RRA]

45 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Wonder what the Rock meant by this on Instagram.

 

 

“For now, I’ll just say word on the street is Jungle Cruise is performing in the market place by a measure that no other movie has done this summer”

 

Maybe this did really well on PA? 

I doubt it but what if it did better PA than BW?

 

🤭