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Dear Eric Hansen

Weekend Thread (7/30-8/1) | Jungle Cruise 34.2M DOM, 27.6 OS, 30M PA | Green Knight 6.78, Old 6.76, Widow 6.4, Stillwater 5.1

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13 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

With the weekend box office numbers. Can’t be verified and they haven’t updated Black Widow since. So it seems like just a press release/PR play. 

Oh it absolutely positively is. But we rarely get official streaming data outside of investor days, so I find it interesting even if parsing said PA numbers you can poke holes through it. 

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£3.38m #1 opening for The Suicide Squad here in the UK.

 

F9 opened to £4.8m, Black Widow to £4.6m. Jungle Cruise £2.3m and A Quiet Place 2 £2.3m. 

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1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

£3.38m #1 opening for The Suicide Squad here in the UK.

 

F9 opened to £4.8m, Black Widow to £4.6m. Jungle Cruise £2.3m and A Quiet Place 2 £2.3m. 

By correlation, TSS coming above 40-50m? We need at least one 100m grosser in August to make market stay afloat. 

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2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

By correlation, TSS coming above 40-50m? We need at least one 100m grosser in August to make market stay afloat. 

I’d guess more like $30-35m because of HBOMax. We don’t have a streaming option unlike the US. 

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5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

£3.38m #1 opening for The Suicide Squad here in the UK.

 

F9 opened to £4.8m, Black Widow to £4.6m. Jungle Cruise £2.3m and A Quiet Place 2 £2.3m. 

that's great. 

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The domestic and PA numbers for Jungle Cruise mean Disney will make day and date releases…

a) more likely

b) less likely

c) too many factors to make JC results that big a factor

 

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Just now, Krissykins said:

I’d guess more like $30-35m because of HBOMax. We don’t have a streaming option unlike the US. 

Oh ya, I forgot that entertainment charity services provider

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If the situation with Delta stays exactly the same - more cases but also better vaccinations - my predictions for August are:

 

Suicide Squad - 32m OW

Respect - 14m OW

Free Guy - 11m OW

Don't Breathe - 13m OW

Reminiscence - 12m OW

Candyman - 19m OW

 

 

I'm not usually big on exact predictions instead of ranges, but I think it is important to calibrate expectations in advance these days and adjust based on the health and market situation.

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3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

If the situation with Delta stays exactly the same - more cases but also better vaccinations - my predictions for August are:

 

Suicide Squad - 32m OW

Respect - 14m OW

Free Guy - 11m OW

Don't Breathe - 13m OW

Reminiscence - 12m OW

Candyman - 19m OW

 

 

I'm not usually big on exact predictions instead of ranges, but I think it is important to calibrate expectations in advance these days and adjust based on the health and market situation.

I think you are on spot except for Candyman. seems more likely to do 8-12m than 19m , I would be happy to be surprised though , rooting for it

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Just now, Madhuvan said:

I think you are on spot except for Candyman. seems more likely to do 8-12m than 19m , I would be happy to be surprised though , rooting for it

I had it doing 40m OW before COVID, so that reduction is actually quite a bit more than my usual COVID prediction penalty of about 33%. They've done a terrible job restarting marketing on it and it has a bad release date. But when the initial trailer dropped, you could have easily sold me on 50m OW (I probably would have been the one doing the selling tbh)

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30 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

The 180-185M range looks most likely. It's now behind the first Ant Man in dailies, following that movies daily numbers exactly would get it to 190+ from here, but it's behind that movie by about 30% daily and it held better going forward as well.

 

26 minutes ago, RRA said:

No PA (and much less piracy) I like to think it would've passed 200 but that's purely academic at this point. 

 

Thanks guys! This is very much in line with what people predicted after the second weekend tumble. Impressive accuracy. 

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10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

If the situation with Delta stays exactly the same - more cases but also better vaccinations - my predictions for August are:

 

Suicide Squad - 32m OW

Respect - 14m OW

Free Guy - 11m OW

Don't Breathe - 13m OW

Reminiscence - 12m OW

Candyman - 19m OW

 

 

I'm not usually big on exact predictions instead of ranges, but I think it is important to calibrate expectations in advance these days and adjust based on the health and market situation.

Imo Free Guy isn’t doing less than Dont Breathe, Reminiscence, and Respect. Not with the supposed confidence Disney has behind it.

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Just now, DAJK said:

Imo Free Guy isn’t doing less than Dont Breathe, Reminiscence, and Respect. Not with the supposed confidence Disney has behind it.

The trailer for Free Guy made me want to drive my car off a bridge and Ryan Reynolds is the most overrated box office "star" on the planet, but I very well could have blinders on here so fair enough.

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just wait and see this, boys on BOT. Let force save DOM market.

 

Donnie Yen’s Action Film ‘Raging Fire’ to Premiere in U.S. in August (EXCLUSIVE)

 

 

 

The Donnie Yen-starring action thriller “Raging Fire” will open in North American theaters on Aug. 13, its distributor Well Go USA Entertainment announced Friday.

The film is the final project of the late iconic Hong Kong film director Benny Chan, who passed away last summer. Chan was beloved for action films like “The White Storm” and Jackie Chan pictures like “New Police Story.”

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Free Guy will be the biggest of the August 13 openers, even if it doesn't do great. Respect will face challenges in the current environment given it's aimed at an older audience (the one demographic that has yet to make much of a return to theaters), while Don't Breathe 2 will be lucky if it even comes close to making half of what the first did.

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