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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (7/30-8/1) | Jungle Cruise 34.2M DOM, 27.6 OS, 30M PA | Green Knight 6.78, Old 6.76, Widow 6.4, Stillwater 5.1

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10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

How much did F8 make OS? BW shouldn't be expected to have the same pull overseas.

fast 8 made 1 bill of which 400 mill were from china bw shouldnt be judged compare to fast 8 my point was that we cant blame covid for jungle cruis or for bw when movies like fast 9 continue to have very good holds.

Edited by john2000
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What we don’t know about Shang Chi is how integral it is to the greater overall story that’s unravelling. 
I’m guessing it doesn’t particularly connect to anything that would have a knock-on effect on the order of other releases - but who knows? 
 

If they were to delay it then they would presumably move it to November and push Eternals to next Spring, which would then push DS2, Thor etc back a quarter respectively. 
 

The films post-Eternals are clearly essential to the overall multi-verse arc that’s playing out over the shows and films.
 

So it’s quite a big decision if they were to delay Shang Chi.  
As much as I’m loathe to say it, I can see them using PA if the delta variant takes hold in the coming weeks. Either way, a decision will have to be made very soon. 

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Just now, John Marston said:

then it has a strong chance of losing money

next year too , as long as the pandemic last it will lose money.........its simple , for now western europe has full vaxx 50% of their population by the time bond comes that number will rise to 60-70% not sufficient for herd immunity but enough so lockdowns wont be needed (not that they work honestly)

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For everyone that is obsessed with delays, this isn't last year.  It isn't a scenario where theaters were delaying 6 months or a year hoping that there would be a vaccine and covid would be gone.  

 

Delaying now there is no guarantee that in 3/6/9/12 months that there isn't another variant out there.  

 

At some point studios have to release content or it clogs up everything for years.  Most of the fall films are going to release in theaters and aren't moving.  

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I don't think there will be any lockdowns, people are rioting about being vaccinated, imagine what will happen with a national lockdown.

 

People need to take the vaccine and that's it. And considering Europe are dealing with Delta for quite some time i think they already reach the peak, i'm not sure things will be worse in September than it is now.

 

But one thing is clear, there always parts of the world which aren't good. When US are fine, Europe is bad. When Latin America is getting better, Asia is getting worse. Studios can't keep delaying all the movies because of that since there's nothing they can do, at this point clearly covid won't go away any soon.

 

I can see some specific movies changing dates if it's very necessary, but nothing very brutal like last year. 

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3 hours ago, john2000 said:

fast 8 made 1 bill of which 400 mill were from china bw shouldnt be judged compare to fast 8 my point was that we cant blame covid for jungle cruis or for bw when movies like fast 9 continue to have very good holds.

 

1 billion overseas is still an ass ton of money.

 

It's not fair to expect BW to perform like a Fast and Furious movie overseas.

 

Covid impacted them both. F9 made more money overseas because it's a bigger franchise in those places.

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There are going to be zero lockdowns in the United States again unless COVID starts killing at a much much higher rate.  

 

The only thing you might see are continued mask mandates, but nothing is going to shut down.  

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11 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

1 billion overseas is still an ass ton of money.

 

It's not fair to expect BW to perform like a Fast and Furious movie overseas.

 

Covid impacted them both. F9 made more money overseas because it's a bigger franchise in those places.

also people forget that fast released in china and sout east asia too unlike black widow

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9 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

There are going to be zero lockdowns in the United States again unless COVID starts killing at a much much higher rate.  

 

The only thing you might see are continued mask mandates, but nothing is going to shut down.  

I agree with this. 

 

Just from a family standpoint the last week has changed the perspectives in my family.

Usually my son and I see the Marvel movies together. We did not go see BW in the theaters as he isn't comfortable going inside building with lots of people, unless everyone is masked. He was starting to hint that he was getting more comfortable, but after last week he has definitely changed his mind. I think it will now be at least October until he is willing to entertain going to a movie theater and my wife who is a little older than me and has some health issues isn't even thinking about seeing movies in theaters and I doubt she will get to that point until sometime in 2022. 

 

Both of them nixed going to eat indoors at restaurants this weekend. Even though we are all vaccinated, unless a building has both mask requirements and social distancing requirements they are back to not being willing to go inside.

 

Frankly, both of them would be happy if proof of vaccination was required to enter buildings, and even then they would want masks to be worn given it has been shown that the delta variant can transmit from vaccinated to vaccinated indidivuals. 

 

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8 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

I agree with this. 

 

Just from a family standpoint the last week has changed the perspectives in my family.

Usually my son and I see the Marvel movies together. We did not go see BW in the theaters as he isn't comfortable going inside building with lots of people, unless everyone is masked. He was starting to hint that he was getting more comfortable, but after last week he has definitely changed his mind. I think it will now be at least October until he is willing to entertain going to a movie theater and my wife who is a little older than me and has some health issues isn't even thinking about seeing movies in theaters and I doubt she will get to that point until sometime in 2022. 

 

Both of them nixed going to eat indoors at restaurants this weekend. Even though we are all vaccinated, unless a building has both mask requirements and social distancing requirements they are back to not being willing to go inside.

 

Frankly, both of them would be happy if proof of vaccination was required to enter buildings, and even then they would want masks to be worn given it has been shown that the delta variant can transmit from vaccinated to vaccinated indidivuals. 

 

This is pretty much the boat I'm in now that I'm living back home with my immunocompromised parents. I was planning to see Jungle Cruise and The Green Knight today, but with Florida hitting all-time highs with COVID, I can't risk a breakthrough infection and spread it to my parents. My dad is especially at risk of hospitalization/death if he has a breakthrough case. It sucks because I was finally in a place where I could set aside pandemic anxiety, but now it's back because too many people can't do the right thing. I likely won't go back to a theater/gym/theme park for a few weeks until cases start declining again in Florida.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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I'm with EmpireCity and I've been saying the same thing in this very thread - there's no end date to this anymore so no point in continuing to take losses. The one big thing I can see getting delayed is the Matrix - no poster, no title, no trailer, and kind of a summer movie anyway. Plus, they might want to avoid having to put it on Max because of their full year commitment. 

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11 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Just put them all on streaming. 

 

Well.... they all do get put on streaming.  

 

They can go there after 45 or 90 days or whatever.  

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3 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

For everyone that is obsessed with delays, this isn't last year.  It isn't a scenario where theaters were delaying 6 months or a year hoping that there would be a vaccine and covid would be gone.  

 

Delaying now there is no guarantee that in 3/6/9/12 months that there isn't another variant out there.  

 

At some point studios have to release content or it clogs up everything for years.  Most of the fall films are going to release in theaters and aren't moving.  

You’re right. 
As for No Time To Die, as its appeal is largely to an older audience, I think it may well be the one that gets that demograph to start returning to theaters. 

Internationally at least, I think it’s the first mega movie released in the pandemic era that people are not going to miss. 
 

In the U.K. there’s literally nothing bigger at the movies than a new James Bond movie.  Older audiences that have been reluctant to come out might well flock.  The movie is the most interesting test case as to where we are with audiences. Even if social distancing returns, they’ve got the screens to cope with the demand I’m sure it’s going to have. 

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The other thing at play here, and you see it with the Scarlett vs. Disney thing is transparency.  There has been a long fought battle between studios and talent/agents that goes back to the start of film.  Compensation for actors and talent has been a struggle that never had transparency until there was solid and reliable box office reporting they could structure contracts around.  

 

Now the studios are trying to muddle that with streaming.  The power had started to shift to where they don't have to be transparent on what a movie actually costs or makes.  Talent and their representatives aren't stupid and realize that any streaming numbers are only as good as the studio that gives them to you, and they have every incentive to not be transparent with them.  

 

The battle is on.  Talent/Producers/Directors/Agents absolutely want films to play exclusively in theaters.  They want it because it is the best presentation and the way they intended them to been seen, and it also is the best financial option for them and the most transparent.  

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7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

There has been a long fought battle between studios and talent/agents that goes back to the start of film. 

 

And I feel like it peak everytime the model change, Tom Cruise Vs Paramount to access Dvd money, Jackson vs Warner and Arnold on Terminator to put everything in the money pot.

 

Under the new model constructed how will the talent access the $5 a month user gained by the fact the movies play is not obvious at all and how the market will be able to keep an honest market value to use has a reference if all the studios stop to shop their product around and distribute them themselve.

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