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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread (7/30-8/1) | Jungle Cruise 34.2M DOM, 27.6 OS, 30M PA | Green Knight 6.78, Old 6.76, Widow 6.4, Stillwater 5.1

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Here is what I think is close to or will play out in the next year.... studios will go back to everything having a theatrical window.  They are currently realizing that putting movies on streaming day and date doesn't really attract any new monthly subscribers after the initial growth phase, and if they do a PA model, the money difference in the long run isn't worth undercutting their own legs in theaters and pissing off talent, not to mention it diminishes the magic of the medium.  

 

 

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Domestic market made about 570m in July, beating China two months in a row. 

YTD number is now at 1.63b, should be able to take over 2020's total by end of Aug but likely to be beaten by China for 2nd consecutive year, thanks to unvaccinated crowd. 

 

Each month from May have a 150m grosser like AQP2, F9 and BW but that trend likely broken off in August.  

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Didn't see this on a quick scan it wasn't in Deadline's latest report.

 

 

BTW, Samba TV had BW at 1.1m

 

Obligatory Note about how Samba TV only captures a portion of the streaming viewing audience and should really be used for a like-for-like comparison.

 

Edited by Porthos
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1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

Lol, they're just making up numbers.  

 

Samba TV?  It's a capture of how many people who use their service watched something.

 

Pretty useless in capturing the total number of viewers (Nielsen is better for that).  Is somewhat useful in measuring like for like.  Like, it is potentially useful to see the percentage of increase versus Cruella and then comp that to a released PA number.  This would suggest about 20m PA for Cruella.  Is a danger in extrapolating only one data point, as they had 1.1m viewers on their platform for the (allegedly) 60m+ Black Widow PA.

 

But until the Nielsen numbers come in this is better than nothing, if barely, as long as one remembers to make it a like for like comparison.

 

EDIT::: Gah.  Lack of sleep made me forget that Disney is reporting a world wide PA number while Samba TV is reporting a US number. So disregard some of the comps made above.

Edited by Porthos
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10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Samba TV?  It's a capture of how many people who use their service watched something.

 

Pretty useless in capturing the total number of viewers (Nielsen is better for that).  Is somewhat useful in measuring like for like.  Like, it is potentially useful to see the percentage of increase versus Cruella and then comp that to a released PA number.  This would suggest about 20m PA for Cruella.  Is a danger in extrapolating only one data point, as they had 1.1m viewers on their platform for the (allegedly) 60m+ Black Widow PA.

 

But until the Nielsen numbers come in this is better than nothing, if barely, as long as one remembers to make it a like for like comparison.

 

At least theyve finally stopped the scourge that was Parrot Analytics (who once claimed The Good Fight, a show that occupies a death slot on a random offshoot channel, was one of the most popular streaming TV shows in the whole UK).

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25 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Samba TV?  It's a capture of how many people who use their service watched something.

 

Considering that include almost all smarttv sellers, would it not be most people ? I think that around 90% opted in (when it is asked at all) on the samba service on their smartTV.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/05/business/media/tv-viewer-tracking.html

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2 hours ago, wildphantom said:

You’re right. 
As for No Time To Die, as its appeal is largely to an older audience, I think it may well be the one that gets that demograph to start returning to theaters. 

Internationally at least, I think it’s the first mega movie released in the pandemic era that people are not going to miss. 
 

In the U.K. there’s literally nothing bigger at the movies than a new James Bond movie.  Older audiences that have been reluctant to come out might well flock.  The movie is the most interesting test case as to where we are with audiences. Even if social distancing returns, they’ve got the screens to cope with the demand I’m sure it’s going to have. 

The older demo is also the one most cautious about the Covid, so it all depends on how it goes with the Covid resurgence in the US.

The fall is definently in jeopardy.

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Samba TV seems reliable to me. Their reports are always somewhat confirmed a month later by the Nielsen ratings, despite being different metrics. For example: if they show Movie A was more viewed than Movie B, Nielsen shows the same thing later.

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1 hour ago, CJohn said:

I am here for the streaming kings to take over. Any moment now Venom 2 will be sold to Netflix. ANY MOMENT.

 

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Maybe theaters will get a surge of attendance as they become one of the few places to escape urban heat without running up a huge AC bill. 

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4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

What if this becomes another Jumanji :Venom: 

Kevin Hart showing up in the sequel!

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5 hours ago, dudalb said:

The older demo is also the one most cautious about the Covid, so it all depends on how it goes with the Covid resurgence in the US.

The fall is definently in jeopardy.

 

Again, where are they moving to?  What future date will be safe from COVID?

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I'm not asking this over and over to be an asshole, but trying to give perspective of the difference in 2020 to 2021 and the actual conversations and decision making process that goes on inside studios.  

 

The decision was easy in 2020.  You move everything and wait on a vaccine or therapeutics.  It was new and the hope was you get the vaccine and then COVID essentially ends.  That is painfully obvious it didn't happen for multiple reasons.  

 

What did happen though is the vaccinated are protected enough to resume a "normal" life with certain restrictions or annoyances like having masks.  

 

Now in the late summer 2021 if you are a studio and you have to look at your fall slate and sell it to your studio head that you need to move to another date, what date do you propose?  What date can you tell your studio they should move to that will virtually guarantee that COVID is not a concern?

 

Do you move your September or October movies to December?  February?  March?  May?  June?  I mean, that is what you did in 2020 and her you are and COVID is still here in Delta form in August 2021.  

 

These studios/production companies have literally billions invested in production/marketing costs and in many cases loans that need to be paid or coffers that need to be replenished.  Investors want their money back.  They have talent waiting to get paid who have agents and managers waiting to get paid.  The longer they sit on the shelf, the more they cost.  

 

At some point they have to release movies.  They can't keep moving them over and over.

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