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Eric Slay

Weekend Thread (7/30-8/1) | Jungle Cruise 34.2M DOM, 27.6 OS, 30M PA | Green Knight 6.78, Old 6.76, Widow 6.4, Stillwater 5.1

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    Am I the only one who thinks PVOD isn't tenable as a revenue stream for the industry should theaters go away? Only 1 percent of subs purchasing Jungle Cruise (only 2 percent in the case of Black Widow) is godawful. 

     

    Between that and HBO Max only adding 10 mil subs in the wake of their announcement (half of which is probably churn), these studios are going to have to wake up to the fact that theatrical can't be replaced...not until people are willing to plop down $30 at home, which clearly they're not willing to do right now. 

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    11 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

    Am I the only one who thinks PVOD isn't tenable as a revenue stream for the industry should theaters go away? Only 1 percent of subs purchasing Jungle Cruise (only 2 percent in the case of Black Widow) is godawful. 

     

    Between that and HBO Max only adding 10 mil subs in the wake of their announcement (half of which is probably churn), these studios are going to have to wake up to the fact that theatrical can't be replaced...not until people are willing to plop down $30 at home, which clearly they're not willing to do right now. 

     

    Not only is it not tenable, it's absolutely stupid.  

     

    Studios have the opportunity for a 3 headed monster of a revenue stream if they play it right. 

     

    Theatrical first, at least 45 days for most and 60 days for tentpoles.  Then go another 45 days for PVOD.  Then put it on "free" streaming.  

     

    You get to triple dip and everyone gets the best of all worlds. 

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    17 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

    Am I the only one who thinks PVOD isn't tenable as a revenue stream for the industry should theaters go away? Only 1 percent of subs purchasing Jungle Cruise (only 2 percent in the case of Black Widow) is godawful. 

     

    Between that and HBO Max only adding 10 mil subs in the wake of their announcement (half of which is probably churn), these studios are going to have to wake up to the fact that theatrical can't be replaced...not until people are willing to plop down $30 at home, which clearly they're not willing to do right now. 

    Also, why do we need to eagerly putting stuff on streaming when they will be there perpetually in like 45 or 30 days?

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    Just now, Borobudur said:

    Also, why do we need to eagerly putting stuff on streaming when they will be there perpetually in like 45 or 30 days?

     

    Especially where there is zero evidence that anyone is going to cancel their subscription if movies show up either immediately or after 45 or 90 days.  

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    19 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

    Am I the only one who thinks PVOD isn't tenable as a revenue stream for the industry should theaters go away? Only 1 percent of subs purchasing Jungle Cruise (only 2 percent in the case of Black Widow) is godawful. 

     

    Between that and HBO Max only adding 10 mil subs in the wake of their announcement (half of which is probably churn), these studios are going to have to wake up to the fact that theatrical can't be replaced...not until people are willing to plop down $30 at home, which clearly they're not willing to do right now. 

    PA/PVOD isn't the revenue they really after. Its the subscription revenue, which is way more than they ever made in theatrical.

     

    That's why I feel Disney should drop PA and just make a Premium tier with $10-13 per month fees.

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    8 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

    Not only is it not tenable, it's absolutely stupid.  

     

    Studios have the opportunity for a 3 headed monster of a revenue stream if they play it right. 

     

    Theatrical first, at least 45 days for most and 60 days for tentpoles.  Then go another 45 days for PVOD.  Then put it on "free" streaming.  

     

    You get to triple dip and everyone gets the best of all worlds. 

    Its like so basic and yet studios are having hard time understanding this.

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    23 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    PA/PVOD isn't the revenue they really after. Its the subscription revenue, which is way more than they ever made in theatrical.

     

    That's why I feel Disney should drop PA and just make a Premium tier with $10-13 per month fees.

     

    Agreed.  Disney+ should have the $8.99 basic tier that gets you older content, shows and movies made specifically for streaming.

     

    Then have a premium tier for another $5-$10 per month that gets you all new theatrical release movies 45 days after release and some other exclusive content.  

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    2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

    I'm not asking this over and over to be an asshole, but trying to give perspective of the difference in 2020 to 2021 and the actual conversations and decision making process that goes on inside studios.  

     

    The decision was easy in 2020.  You move everything and wait on a vaccine or therapeutics.  It was new and the hope was you get the vaccine and then COVID essentially ends.  That is painfully obvious it didn't happen for multiple reasons.  

     

    What did happen though is the vaccinated are protected enough to resume a "normal" life with certain restrictions or annoyances like having masks.  

     

    Now in the late summer 2021 if you are a studio and you have to look at your fall slate and sell it to your studio head that you need to move to another date, what date do you propose?  What date can you tell your studio they should move to that will virtually guarantee that COVID is not a concern?

     

    Do you move your September or October movies to December?  February?  March?  May?  June?  I mean, that is what you did in 2020 and her you are and COVID is still here in Delta form in August 2021.  

     

    These studios/production companies have literally billions invested in production/marketing costs and in many cases loans that need to be paid or coffers that need to be replenished.  Investors want their money back.  They have talent waiting to get paid who have agents and managers waiting to get paid.  The longer they sit on the shelf, the more they cost.  

     

    At some point they have to release movies.  They can't keep moving them over and over.

     

    I guess what I'd say is that if the entire world was on a level playing field where vaccine availability was equal, I'd agree. But this isn't the case, and those markets where vaccine availability cannot approach the US yet means more to some movies than others. I'm sure plenty of movies will stay, but also, studios are gonna take a decent bath on it if they rely on markets where vaccine availability is still lacking (think SE Asia)

     

    I don't agree with the notion that a bunch of movies are going to move, certainly not to the degree of what we saw in 2020, but even for someone like me who is vaccinated and maybe I can consider this 'over,' we're seeing the problems with a movie like Jungle Cruise or BW where the OS grosses are on very tenuous terms. The timing of the release and how lucky you are is dictating everything (F9 was fortunate, BW/Jungle Cruise were not).

     

    I guess the other option is release films where the vaccination effort has reached its peak and wait on the others, but something tells me that's not a necessarily better option.

    Edited by MrPink
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    14 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

    With Disney, I have to assume there’s a decent chunk of us who signed up for the 3-year-deal for 3.99/mo. And paid in full at the time. So they’re not getting any revenue from us until we’re spending for PA. 

    Bingo.

     

    BTW this is worth a read for everyone debating what's a hit and what isn't these days (basically, it makes the point that every movie that has been heavily impacted by the pandemic in one form or another has become - or will be - a money-loser for the studio that released it): Is 'Jungle Cruise' a Box Office Hit? During COVID, It's Hard to Know - Variety

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    10 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

    Here is what I think is close to or will play out in the next year.... studios will go back to everything having a theatrical window.  They are currently realizing that putting movies on streaming day and date doesn't really attract any new monthly subscribers after the initial growth phase, and if they do a PA model, the money difference in the long run isn't worth undercutting their own legs in theaters and pissing off talent, not to mention it diminishes the magic of the medium.  

     

     

     

    The question is, how stupid are they collectively to have not realized this? It doesn't take a genius to predict that. 

     

    Driven by shareholders, clueless executives tried to replicate Netflix without any idea of what they were doing. Not to mention, having been part of a legacy company attempting to play in the digital space, they have no idea what they are tracking at first. I would not be surprised if they weren't even tracking the right things knowing how intransigent executives are.

     

    8 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

    Lol, they're just making up numbers.  

     

    Yep, most or all of these digital analytics are extrapolating because fundamentally, those that hold the data (in this case the studios) will not share it. Which app will voluntarily share their data for public use? None of them. 

     

    8 hours ago, Porthos said:

     

    Samba TV?  It's a capture of how many people who use their service watched something.

     

    Pretty useless in capturing the total number of viewers (Nielsen is better for that).  Is somewhat useful in measuring like for like.  Like, it is potentially useful to see the percentage of increase versus Cruella and then comp that to a released PA number.  This would suggest about 20m PA for Cruella.  Is a danger in extrapolating only one data point, as they had 1.1m viewers on their platform for the (allegedly) 60m+ Black Widow PA.

     

    But until the Nielsen numbers come in this is better than nothing, if barely, as long as one remembers to make it a like for like comparison.

     

    EDIT::: Gah.  Lack of sleep made me forget that Disney is reporting a world wide PA number while Samba TV is reporting a US number. So disregard some of the comps made above.

     

    Same as above.

     

    7 hours ago, Napoleon said:

    Samba TV seems reliable to me. Their reports are always somewhat confirmed a month later by the Nielsen ratings, despite being different metrics. For example: if they show Movie A was more viewed than Movie B, Nielsen shows the same thing later.

     

    Is Nielsen even really that accurate? It is the most accurate of metrics, but fundamentally how accurate can it be? 

     

    2 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

    I'm not asking this over and over to be an asshole, but trying to give perspective of the difference in 2020 to 2021 and the actual conversations and decision making process that goes on inside studios.  

     

    The decision was easy in 2020.  You move everything and wait on a vaccine or therapeutics.  It was new and the hope was you get the vaccine and then COVID essentially ends.  That is painfully obvious it didn't happen for multiple reasons.  

     

    What did happen though is the vaccinated are protected enough to resume a "normal" life with certain restrictions or annoyances like having masks.  

     

    Now in the late summer 2021 if you are a studio and you have to look at your fall slate and sell it to your studio head that you need to move to another date, what date do you propose?  What date can you tell your studio they should move to that will virtually guarantee that COVID is not a concern?

     

    Do you move your September or October movies to December?  February?  March?  May?  June?  I mean, that is what you did in 2020 and her you are and COVID is still here in Delta form in August 2021.  

     

    These studios/production companies have literally billions invested in production/marketing costs and in many cases loans that need to be paid or coffers that need to be replenished.  Investors want their money back.  They have talent waiting to get paid who have agents and managers waiting to get paid.  The longer they sit on the shelf, the more they cost.  

     

    At some point they have to release movies.  They can't keep moving them over and over.

     

    If only there were visionaries in charge of the studios instead of the usual morally bankrupt, short term perspective, clueless leaders.

     

    1 hour ago, tonytr87 said:

    Am I the only one who thinks PVOD isn't tenable as a revenue stream for the industry should theaters go away? Only 1 percent of subs purchasing Jungle Cruise (only 2 percent in the case of Black Widow) is godawful. 

     

    Between that and HBO Max only adding 10 mil subs in the wake of their announcement (half of which is probably churn), these studios are going to have to wake up to the fact that theatrical can't be replaced...not until people are willing to plop down $30 at home, which clearly they're not willing to do right now. 

     

    Only if theatres close forever. 

     

    Idiotic studio executives when blindly into streaming without due diligence and through shareholder pressure. 

     

    As EmpireCity states below:

     

    1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

     

    Not only is it not tenable, it's absolutely stupid.  

     

    Studios have the opportunity for a 3 headed monster of a revenue stream if they play it right. 

     

    Theatrical first, at least 45 days for most and 60 days for tentpoles.  Then go another 45 days for PVOD.  Then put it on "free" streaming.  

     

    You get to triple dip and everyone gets the best of all worlds. 

     

    They are basically destroying their current revenue streams for a singular one which undermines their revenue streams further lol. 

     

    The subscriber revenue is the only new source of revenue but that competes directly with theatrical repeats, TV rights, PVOD/rentals and home video. & you need to keep spending on content to keep that subscriber revenue.

    14 minutes ago, MrPink said:

     

    I guess what I'd say is that if the entire world was on a level playing field where vaccine availability was equal, I'd agree. But this isn't the case, and those markets where vaccine availability cannot approach the US yet means more to some movies than others. I'm sure plenty of movies will stay, but also, studios are gonna take a decent bath on it if they rely on markets where vaccine availability is still lacking (think SE Asia)

     

    I don't agree with the notion that a bunch of movies are going to move, certainly not to the degree of what we saw in 2020, but even for someone like me who is vaccinated and maybe I can consider this 'over,' we're seeing the problems with a movie like Jungle Cruise or BW where the OS grosses are on very tenuous terms. The timing of the release and how lucky you are is dictating everything (F9 was fortunate, BW/Jungle Cruise were not).

     

    I guess the other option is release films where the vaccination effort has reached its peak and wait on the others, but something tells me that's not a necessarily better option.

     

    The difficulty for them is that there are no win-win strategies. They tried to adapt (badly) in the States by opening streaming platforms but since most have no presence in any other countries, piracy has flourished. Counterintuitive but maybe should have done a deal with Netflix/Amazon/Apple to host the movies worldwide at a theatrical ticket price that would expire after 1 day & give a % of that to closed theatres whilst they figure out worldwide strategies. 

     

    But it's every man for himself.

     

    1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

     

    Especially where there is zero evidence that anyone is going to cancel their subscription if movies show up either immediately or after 45 or 90 days.  

     

    Yep, but the whole thing has been ill thought out. 

     

    1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

    PA/PVOD isn't the revenue they really after. Its the subscription revenue, which is way more than they ever made in theatrical.

     

    That's why I feel Disney should drop PA and just make a Premium tier with $10-13 per month fees.

     

    I think sub revenue is the cash cow but also offsets all the other traditional sources. And since the other sources are generally easier to find information on especially theatrical and maybe home video/PVOD, you wonder how talent wants to structure new contracts. Everyone will want a piece of that sub revenue. Maybe the studios will just have to have a higher salary upfront so they can continue to not reveal numbers. Otherwise they would be forced to tell the likes of Johansson, Johnson and Stone who is watching and find out a formula that will reward them for their movies dominating the views on the streaming platforms.

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    The article is gargabe tho, didn't see the lie.

     

    They analyze how good things went for AQP2 and F9, and then we have disappointments with BW, Old and now JC.

     

    I get that BW have a terrible internal multi on OW and bad legs, but it's still the biggest debut of the pandemic and it will be the biggest movie domestic too despite PA. How F9 is such a hit and BW grossing more is a bad result? These double standards is unfair especially right now with Delta concerns etc.

     

    Old cost $ 18M and gross almost that on OW alone, and the 2nd weekend drop is not even that bad for the genre, again where's the disappointment? 

     

    And then JC, of course it's a 200M movie and being logical, 35M opening would be a disaster in 2019 and sure won't be profitable now. But context matter, they talk about how it should opened with 80-100M to be profitable, i mean, that's not even close to realistic right now especially with PA available. The tracking is 20-25M, being disappointed because it opened way higher than that is nonsense.

     

    This overall feeling that every number is bad is really annoying. Things are far from great and everyone knows it but at this point is more than clear we can't keep expecting things to suddenly be like it was in 2019 to be satisfied.

     

    I'm sad for TSS because i'm sure even if it open with +50M, there will still be some article saying it's another disaster too because the last one opened with 133M. Media needs to be more flexible and understand the situation. 

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    46 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

    Old cost $ 18M and gross almost that on OW alone, and the 2nd weekend drop is not even that bad for the genre, again where's the disappointment? 

     

     

    Media needs to be more flexible and understand the situation. 

    Agreed. Old is literally the biggest financial success from July.  

    The media needs to be more flexible. But clickbait reigns surprise for these people/outlets and unfortunately negative articles get more clicks. That’s why when award nominations are announced, Variety and THR immediately put out articles on who was “snubbed”. Bizarre. 

     

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