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Eric Madrigal

Weekend Thread (7/30-8/1) | Jungle Cruise 34.2M DOM, 27.6 OS, 30M PA | Green Knight 6.78, Old 6.76, Widow 6.4, Stillwater 5.1

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13M would be great, around 33-33M weekend. For a long delayed movie, without many hype and available at PA, that's great.

 

I'm more worried about drops, i'm really hoping for legs more towards to Cruella than BW. It will be really nice to have another +100M grosser now.

 

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8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yes, but i'm not getting into this.

 

I was only talking because Deadline is having a meltdown for weeks now because of consecultive 65-69% drops ignoring exactly that all the movies have average to bad reception from audiences, Old being another one.

 

But they are blaming only streaming for the drops, but Old didn't even have this excuse for them to use.

Don’t worry, indiewire will do enough melting down on Sunday 

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2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

So, another mid 60% drop for last weekend opener.

 

This time Deadline didn't have any streaming to blame and have a meltdown

It's a horror movie with mediocre word of mouth. It's having a normal drop.

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BW 2nd weekend drop wasn't that big a concern frankly. The fact it dropped over 50% on its 3rd Tuesday and WED stanks as compared to low 40s/high 30s drop of other MCU July releases.

 

That tells its not just Disney+ PA but film reception is bleh as well. Ideally in normalcy it would have done $240-250M from $13M THU start point but here we are looking at $180M, courtesy of Disney+ PA and bad reception.

 

On other hand, it will do ~$50-60M in USA on PA, so purely Studio revenue isn't that bad per se domestically.

 

Disney will make $155M+ revenue from Theatrical + PA domestically, equivalent of $260-270M DBO, so if Disney is paying ScarJo on PA revenue, she isn't losing much.

 

As for INT, FFH grossed $435M in markets BW is released. BW will probably do ~$200M. Ideally I would have expected $300-325M Approx in these, so a lot can be just blamed on just CoVID and ofc there's a lot, probably ~$50M lost due to Disney+ PA by either cutting theater admits or theater boycotts, but Disney+ PA loss is probably recovered by $20-30M revenue it had.

 

Edit: I see I am being confusing in above text for later half. This is more clear.

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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26 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yes, but i'm not getting into this.

 

I was only talking because Deadline is having a meltdown for weeks now because of consecultive 65-69% drops ignoring exactly that all the movies have average to bad reception from audiences, Old being another one.

 

But they are blaming only streaming for the drops, but Old didn't even have this excuse for them to use.

 

Black Widow did not have a bad reception though. It has a 92% on RT audience, all the rest of those movies are below that, in some cases far below that. Old is the worst with 52%. 

 

I guess RT may not be as useful as it was before but you can still compare it within the same year.

 

Why are people so invested in day & date streaming being a success? Do you own Netflix and Disney stocks?

 

Anyway, I hope Johansson wins. So much for any PA profit lol. 

 

34 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

It’s because no one even cares about Stillwater :hahaha:

 

If you didn't know the Amanda Knox story, you'd wonder why on Earth anyone would make a film like this?

 

And recently Knox herself came out to criticize McCarthy and Damon. Not that she made a difference to the box office, but you really have to ask who this movie was for.

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4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

BW 2nd weekend drop wasn't that big a concern frankly. The fact it dropped over 50% on its 3rd Tuesday and WED stanks as compared to low 40s/high 30s drop of other MCU July releases.

 

That tells its not just Disney+ PA but film reception is bleh as well.

 

Or it could just tell you that most people have already seen it. How many times do we need to bring up piracy? 

 

I haven't brought this up on this site I think, but the analogy is this:

 

Compare the ease of availability of finding a stream for the Champions League or World Cup final as opposed to a CL qualifier between an Israeli & Azerbaijani team or a WC qualifier between Fiji and the Cook Islands. 

 

Yes, everything can be pirated, but big movies are more widely available and of course we have the pandemic as another filter, but as others have said before hosting a stream on Discord etc. 

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Jungle Cruise looks like it could match (if not too?) Space Jam’s Friday in Canada. Which is impressive since that’s not including previews.

 

@charlie Jatinder am I way off the mark?

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6 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Or it could just tell you that most people have already seen it. How many times do we need to bring up piracy? 

Yes that's why using 3rd week drop not 2nd.

 

The absolute numbers are supposed to be cut by Disney+ PA & piracy. The 2nd week drop can be bad or OTT releases, considering 1st week still has fans rushing to watch it in theaters, but drops for 3rd week are from 2nd week, which is similarly impacted availability on other mediums.

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2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Jungle Cruise looks like it could match (if not too?) Space Jam’s Friday in Canada. Which is impressive since that’s not including previews.

 

@charlie Jatinder am I way off the mark?

Sorry I haven't got my access back but I won't be surprised with Space Jam overindexing in USA, leading to JC over SJ2 in Canada.

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24 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

Black Widow did not have a bad reception though. It has a 92% on RT audience, all the rest of those movies are below that, in some cases far below that. Old is the worst with 52%. 

 

I guess RT may not be as useful as it was before but you can still compare it within the same year.

 

Why are people so invested in day & date streaming being a success? Do you own Netflix and Disney stocks?

 

Anyway, I hope Johansson wins. So much for any PA profit lol. 

 

 

If you didn't know the Amanda Knox story, you'd wonder why on Earth anyone would make a film like this?

 

And recently Knox herself came out to criticize McCarthy and Damon. Not that she made a difference to the box office, but you really have to ask who this movie was for.

I said average to bad. BW enters the average zone.

 

Definitely not bad but you can feel people in general put it on low tie MCU, even the cinemascore was among the worst received Marvel movies.

 

I'm sure PA hurt it, but this mediocre multiplier is also because people didn't loved it.

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4 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 

So Rock gonna quote this when suing Disney that, my 87% Jumanji 2 did $800M WW while Jungle Cruise has just done $200-250M with 94% 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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JC finished at 148729/822496 1953180.41 4334 shows at MTC. There is not much of late walk ups during COVID times. MTC2 is around 138K(DBOX adjusted) and so combined you are looking at 3.4m. Sticking to 9.5m true friday and 12.2 million friday including previews. I think it has potential to stay flat or go up a tad  tomorrow. Rock/Blunt should help. Let us hope it does enough to hit 30m for the weekend. 

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36 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

 


It’s always embarrassing when they promote audience scores.



 

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40 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So Rock gonna quote this when suing Disney that, my 87% Jumanji 2 did $800M WW while Jungle Cruise has just done $200-250M with 94% 

 

If it does, there seems to be widespread reports that him and his company are not preparing to sue.

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28 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

JC finished at 148729/822496 1953180.41 4334 shows at MTC. There is not much of late walk ups during COVID times. MTC2 is around 138K(DBOX adjusted) and so combined you are looking at 3.4m. Sticking to 9.5m true friday and 12.2 million friday including previews. I think it has potential to stay flat or go up a tad  tomorrow. Rock/Blunt should help. Let us hope it does enough to hit 30m for the weekend. 

Awesome to see as always. These precise numbers would probably take it to ~29M, so definitely close enough that 30 should remain in play for a while longer.

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's a horror movie with mediocre word of mouth. It's having a normal drop.

Eh in this pandemic resurgence, I’ll give it a break. 

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