Weekend Thread: Free Guy 28.4, Don't Breathe 10.6, Jungle Cruise 9, Respect 8.8, TSS 7.75

[JohnnyGossamer]

11 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

At least over 70% and somewhere in the 7.5m range?

I'd actually think close to 7 with a 2.2 Friday unless it sees a huge Saturday increase. Potentially under 7 even.

[Borobudur]

Ryan Reynolds’ ‘Free Guy’ Scores $2.2M In Thursday Night Previews – Deadline

In what is a big win for an original piece of IP in the middle of August when kids are heading back to school, in particular during the pandemic, Disney’s 20th Century Studios’ Free Guy was truly vibrant yesterday with $10.5M first day, including $2.2M in Thursday night previews. This puts Free Guy on a track toward an estimated $26.4M opening It’s a number that is higher than the mid-to-high teens that tracking had been seeing, and Disney proves once again, it can beat projections during the pandemic.

[ThomasNicole]

Depending on the saturday increase FG could be closer to 28 than 26M

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Ryan Reynolds’ ‘Free Guy’ Scores $2.2M In Thursday Night Previews – Deadline

In what is a big win for an original piece of IP in the middle of August when kids are heading back to school, in particular during the pandemic, Disney’s 20th Century Studios’ Free Guy was truly vibrant yesterday with $10.5M first day, including $2.2M in Thursday night previews. This puts Free Guy on a track toward an estimated $26.4M opening It’s a number that is higher than the mid-to-high teens that tracking had been seeing, and Disney proves once again, it can beat projections during the pandemic.

We got extra 0.3m? 

[AdrianL]

Truly sad about The Suicide Squad... consequence of WB butchering the first one though.

[RRA]

9 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Really think that the WB/HBO is just brutal. MK, SJ2 and, now, TSS are just taking nose dives in their second weekend more even than just about anything else outside of a few outliers while stuff like QP2, F9, Old and the Disney releases are dropping big too but not consistently like the WB releases. Hell, Jungle Cruise seems to be holding rather well actually. BW had a ridiculous drop but at least that was from an 80M OW DOM rather than something like 25, 30 and 25 like the three WB releases I mentioned earlier that dropped through the floor. GvK is the only WB release that showed some legs and managed to get to 100M+ DOM.

 

It's not just HBO with subscribers... People share subscriptions. I don't know anyone that doesn't share their HBO Max with at least 4 people. Most share it with 5+. Now, if you're buying a movie for 30 bucks plus friends that share your login have a limited time to watch after it's purchased that's completely different to I'll open my pals HBO Max app whenever and watch TSS, MK, SJ2 for free whenever. 

 

Piracy is huge but a lot of people I think are just sharing subs for HBO, Disney, etc. It's ridiculously easy and they haven't cracked down on it at all. Only crackdowns where it's harder is it you have YouTubeTV or Hulu Live. They start to track and give more of shit then because those are like 65 dollars or more monthly...

You know you might be onto something about account sharing.

[Dominic Draper]

9 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Really think that the WB/HBO is just brutal. MK, SJ2 and, now, TSS are just taking nose dives in their second weekend more even than just about anything else outside of a few outliers while stuff like QP2, F9, Old and the Disney releases are dropping big too but not consistently like the WB releases. Hell, Jungle Cruise seems to be holding rather well actually. BW had a ridiculous drop but at least that was from an 80M OW DOM rather than something like 25, 30 and 25 like the three WB releases I mentioned earlier that dropped through the floor. GvK is the only WB release that showed some legs and managed to get to 100M+ DOM.

 

It's not just HBO with subscribers... People share subscriptions. I don't know anyone that doesn't share their HBO Max with at least 4 people. Most share it with 5+. Now, if you're buying a movie for 30 bucks plus friends that share your login have a limited time to watch after it's purchased that's completely different to I'll open my pals HBO Max app whenever and watch TSS, MK, SJ2 for free whenever. 

 

Piracy is huge but a lot of people I think are just sharing subs for HBO, Disney, etc. It's ridiculously easy and they haven't cracked down on it at all. Only crackdowns where it's harder is it you have YouTubeTV or Hulu Live. They start to track and give more of shit then because those are like 65 dollars or more monthly...

Didnt conjuring 3 hold just fine?

 

Maybe these films are having big drops because...audiences don't like them that much.

[Menor the Destroyer]

If Friday was indeed 8.3, then Saturday will be higher than 10 most likely. 

[Borobudur]

Just now, Menor said:

If Friday was indeed 8.3, then Saturday will be higher than 10 most likely. 

Affirmed 

-	N	Free Guy	20th Century…	$10,500,000			4,165	$2,521	$10,500,000	1
-	N	Don’t Breathe 2	Sony Pictures	$4,365,000			3,005	$1,453	$4,365,000	1
-	(-)	Jungle Cruise	Walt Disney	$2,550,000	+61%	-44%	3,900	$654	$75,692,554	15

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Wonder why it only dropped -30% in its second weekend here in the UK? We don’t have HBOMax. Maybe Americans not clicking with it. 
 

$4.37m is great for Don’t Breathe 2, all things considered. Just over $9m weekend  probably. 

Looking at other films, JC dropped only 15% (US FSS Drop 55%) and there's D+ in UK. TSS had worst drop in UK, so just that all films are holding well.

[RRA]

3 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

Truly sad about The Suicide Squad... consequence of WB butchering the first one though.

Truly a prophetic title.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

We got extra 0.3m? 

EC was probably seeing raw numbers. He didn't accounted for residual gross.

[wildphantom]

7 minutes ago, Gokira2012 said:

True, but they don't care what caused the dollar , as long as they have it

but they’ll have more dollars if people pay to watch their movies.  It’s not rocket science. 
 

People are calling you out for trolling, but I’ve been willing for you to make your case but you haven’t. 
 

Movie theaters aren’t going anywhere mate. 
 

The biggest movie chain in the world has more liquidity than its had in its 100 year history, and believes they’ll make a profit as soon as the last quarter of this year. 
 

We all accept on here that the model is going to change going forward. Most see it as a 45 day window agreement (which three of the big five have already committed to). 

[charlie Jatinder]

JC will easily be #2 for weekend FSS.

[Dominic Draper]

So is TSS going to drop more than Mortal Kombat did?

 

That would be something.

Edited August 14, 2021 by Dominic Brehetto

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, Dominic Brehetto said:

Didnt conjuring 3 hold just fine?

 

Maybe these films are having big drops because...audiences don't like them that much.

there’s a decent argument horror is a bit different as audience participation, big sound and darkness kind of add up to a unique experience. That said, normally horror doesn’t hold well at all past their OW’s. 

[AdrianL]

Hilarious that Old is holding relatively well. It is such a bizarre film that I thought it would plummet but good for Shayamalan.

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, RRA said:

You know you might be onto something about account sharing.

It happens with all of them... Especially Netflix. But, they do not crack down on it. They will have to OR charge a PVOD price for films... Not the ridiculous 30 that D+ charges but something like 10 to 15 and you get it for 48 hours that way the sharing for new releases isn't as a big of a deal because people sharing accounts are cheap as hell and don't wanna Venmo the individual 5 bucks for a movie let alone 15. They want it free. Period. That's why the D+ PA model has the movies like BW and JC doing far better at the box office than uber budgeted WB stuff like MK, SJ2 and TSS.

 

Interesting that user in the UK notes that TSS had a very nice drop weekend to weekend but it's the polar opposite in the states. I think they're right.

 

Of course, there are other reasons... The first being hated, muddled ad campaign for the new one, Delta roaring the states BUT Free Guy is about to potentially open higher than TSS. JC did open much higher AND is holding rather well.

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, Dominic Brehetto said:

Didnt conjuring 3 hold just fine?

 

Maybe these films are having big drops because...audiences don't like them that much.

That's a good point. I'll have too look into Conjuring 3. I do think horror films are made for theaters. They generally don't cost much and hold well enough. Horror crowd is very, very reliable to generate a certain amount of cash per film. They're great date night movies too. 

 

What did it drop weekend to weekend? 

[WrathOfHan]

Deadline says Don't Breathe 2 got a B CinemaScore, down from the first's B+. That should be good for legs.