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Eric Madrigal

Weekend Thread: Free Guy 28.4, Don't Breathe 10.6, Jungle Cruise 9, Respect 8.8, TSS 7.75

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Free Guy's run should be interesting. Weak line-up besides Shang-Chi that maybe it'll play well August and September and do close to or even go past 100m. Free Guy and Jungle Cruise doing 90m+ are honestly what's needed now cause if everything was doing sub-60m then welp. 

Edited by AdrianL
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35 minutes ago, Menor said:

If Friday was indeed 8.3, then Saturday will be higher than 10 most likely. 

Presales are that good?

 

I was expecting a bump but more like 9.3M saturday instead of +10M

 

If this happens Sunday can actually be pretty close to Friday and the OW will be around 29M, with a better previews - OW ratio than Jungle Cruise.

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46 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Ryan Reynolds’ ‘Free Guy’ Scores $2.2M In Thursday Night Previews – Deadline

In what is a big win for an original piece of IP in the middle of August when kids are heading back to school, in particular during the pandemic, Disney’s 20th Century Studios’ Free Guy was truly vibrant yesterday with $10.5M first day, including $2.2M in Thursday night previews. This puts Free Guy on a track toward an estimated $26.4M opening It’s a number that is higher than the mid-to-high teens that tracking had been seeing, and Disney proves once again, it can beat projections during the pandemic.

 

So, I'm starting to feel really good about my box office predicting this summer...this means I'm due to be wildly, wildly wrong in the next few weeks...

 

That's probably good for Shang Chi:)...

 

PS - Although I said a few weeks ago I'd eat my hat if Paw Patrol could go over $5M, so maybe that's gonna be my downfall...and presales are actually starting to look like I may have to find some salt/pepper, but I'm still gonna stick on that - I will say my older son said he thought it could be good "hate watch" viewing, so maybe I underestimated the number of young teen and tween boys who want to make fun of their childhood:)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Is it that hard for WB to give just two films in their upcoming 2021 slate proper theatrical releases? I doubt there are many people subbing to the service atm for just Dune and Matrix 4.

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1 hour ago, Free Eric said:

Guys Gokira is always doing a dumb bit. A couple years back, he was parading on about how Kong Skull Island was set to be a bomb for the ages and that Power Rangers was going to be a mega smash even after both movies came out.

 

Just ignore him and then he’ll eventually tire himself out or realize nobody finds his schtick amusing

 

He was a Fant4stic Stan. 

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2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Is it that hard for WB to give just two films in their upcoming 2021 slate proper theatrical releases? I doubt there are many people subbing to the service atm for just Dune and Matrix 4.

I would be shocked if Denis and Lana don’t storm the offices of Warner or AT&T or whoever after this weekend. Both movies will open to 30M if they still go day and date and things will not be pretty

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10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Day-and-date for free via subscription has meant that the runs for all the WB movies have been accelerated to just a few weeks, meaning those who really want to see these movies in theaters do so the first weekend while everyone else (especially those who would show up late in their run) can just watch them right away with the click of a button (as long as it's before the 31 days are up). But it was obvious when they announced everything in 2021 going day-and-date that they were just writing off their entire slate this year.

And because of their one-model fir all strategy (even by pandemic standard), Dune now has to suffer.... 

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8 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I mean sure that’s ideal. But in today’s world and the current situation streaming is the move for Disney. They’ve established themselves as the only other major player outside of Netflix in the streaming word and pushing movies to D+ is helping them establish a foothold. They can also ways come back to theaters if they every somewhat normalize but right now they’re presented with the unique opportunity that nobody else really has. And taking advantage to establish themselves as a must have streamer. 
 

because if the day comes where you have to choose between 200m subs vs the box office…you want the former. And if it should ever come to it that theaters are permanently diminished…well those streaming subs will allow them to continue in as normal. 

Yes. I agree. But, I think you'll get essentially the same number of subs regardless. Netflix is an outlier. I don't see HBO getting close to that number ever. They're at 1/5 of it. Disney maybe but they're actually doing theatrically exclusive stuff like Shang Chi, Free Guy and Eternals.

 

I think they'd get same number subs regardless AND could make money via exhibitioners and PVOD in addition to that.

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37 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Looking at other films, JC dropped only 15% (US FSS Drop 55%) and there's D+ in UK. TSS had worst drop in UK, so just that all films are holding well.

That’s incorrect. TSS didn’t have the worst drop in the UK. It was down -30%. Black Widow (#5) and Old fell more. 
 

Jungle Cruise has the benefit of schools being off and being rated for all ages. And didn’t open as big either. The Croods 2 at #4, fell only 3%. 

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1 minute ago, Free Eric said:

I would be shocked if Denis and Lana don’t storm the offices of Warner or AT&T or whoever after this weekend. Both movies will open to 30M if they still go day and date and things will not be pretty

 

Dune is opening low no matter how that opens - it has echoes of "Blade Runner 2049" support here, but it's not gonna attract more than movie subscribers whether it opens full theatrical or its day and date...

 

Now Matrix 4 is a wildcard...if that's still set this year, that one I might give a reprieve to...

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6 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Is it that hard for WB to give just two films in their upcoming 2021 slate proper theatrical releases? I doubt there are many people subbing to the service atm for just Dune and Matrix 4.

Matrix 4 may be worth trying for. Dune, well...

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2 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Still no numbers for Respect 

Deadline says 3.6M

4 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

He was a Fant4stic Stan. 

Those people exist?

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TSS is tragic i'm not even talk about it to avoid drama.

 

JC with 2.55M friday probably can make $ 9.3-9.5M on third weekend, so around 40% drop and will reach around $ 83M by sunday. Depending on late legs this can finish with 115-120M despite PA.

 

DB2 did good on friday 13th, probably will be frontloaded because of that but with surprisingly decent reception 10M can happen.

 

Respect also did kinda fine.

 

If FG get +10M on Sat i think 29M OW is happening and with such good reception, theatrical exclusivity and lack of competition maybe it can also finish with $ 100-105M.

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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Matrix 4 may be worth trying for. Dune, well...

They’re still working on a Dune TV show for HBO Max. Warner knows there’s potential and it would be dumb of them to not utilize that

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Just now, Free Eric said:

They’re still working on a Dune TV show for HBO Max. Warner knows there’s potential and it would be dumb of them to not utilize that

How is Dune releasing on HBO Max not utilising it if point is to maximize the audience? More so when it will be same platform where show will be.

 

Those who really want the experience of big screen will go anyways.

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14 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Is it that hard for WB to give just two films in their upcoming 2021 slate proper theatrical releases? I doubt there are many people subbing to the service atm for just Dune and Matrix 4.

They are clumsy as they are stupid....

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