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Eric Madrigal

Weekend Thread: Free Guy 28.4, Don't Breathe 10.6, Jungle Cruise 9, Respect 8.8, TSS 7.75

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Turns out the national media spending a whole week talking about what a huge flop a movie is and how it is available on HBO Max can be bad for legs.

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13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Dune is opening low no matter how that opens - it has echoes of "Blade Runner 2049" support here, but it's not gonna attract more than movie subscribers whether it opens full theatrical or its day and date...

 

Now Matrix 4 is a wildcard...if that's still set this year, that one I might give a reprieve to...

Blade Runner 2049 still opened to $35 mil. Dune opening to $40 mil+ (if cases are well below the peak at that point) with a PG-13 rating and more popular source material isn't that hard to see. Even with a low opening, it would probably have better legs without day and date. Would definitely be a lot better than a TSS situation (low opening + terrible legs).

 

Edited by lorddemaxus
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Free Guy did more than I expected it would have pre-pandemic, one of the first movies to top my pre-pandemic expectation. Ryan Reynolds has more flops than James Harden/Neymar (joke options give for our international users).

 

Respect and Don't Breathe quintessential examples of movies that would have done 15-20 pre-pandemic and will do 8 now. Those are the movies hurting the most.

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29 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

AT&T,not Warner.

And they couldn't care less this year.


they obviously do care as they’ve quickly sold WarnerMedia to Discovery, such was the backlash both financially, and from their creative talent. 

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6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Turns out the national media spending a whole week talking about what a huge flop a movie is and how it is available on HBO Max can be bad for legs.


Yep. And you can bet much of that is coming from a desperate Wall Street. 

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1 minute ago, wildphantom said:


Yep. And you can bet much of that is coming from a desperate Wall Street. 

Suicide Squad and Black Widow numbers are by far most active and intense discussion I've ever seen on box office by the media. It has become a genuine news story, whereas even Endgame/Force Awakens openings were just 30-second "fun trivia!" on Good Morning America.

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24 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Is it that hard for WB to give just two films in their upcoming 2021 slate proper theatrical releases? I doubt there are many people subbing to the service atm for just Dune and Matrix 4.


I’m not sure they can due to the promise they made when advertising it to potential subscribers. I hope they do! Can’t see it though. 
 

I still think Matrix is destined to move. Whilst I am salivating at the prospect of it, I would actually be pleased if it does move to 2022. Keep it as a major theater exclusive event. As Dune should be, but it’s hard to see them moving it now after so much marketing. Matrix they haven’t spent a dime marketing yet. 

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1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Suicide Squad and Black Widow numbers are by far most active and intense discussion I've ever seen on box office by the media. It has become a genuine news story, whereas even Endgame/Force Awakens openings were just 30-second "fun trivia!" on Good Morning America.

Indeed, and it’s all coming from sections of Wall Street massively exposed on a bad bet effectively. 

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We have signals of TSS lacking hype for some time, trailers did bad in views and likes. 

 

Dune otherwise both trailers did good in all platforms, probably it will be released in a better environment and and it's PG13. Even with HBO Max i find hard to see it opening equally low like some people think. BR2049 did bad but the same numbers for Dune in this conditions will be received as a win.

 

Anyway, Warner seems way more interested in the awards recognition for Dune than box office considering AT&T already destroy their whole year in that aspect.

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Excuses excuses excuses.. 

All the excuses when Godzilla vs Kong film from failing and decresing franchise made over 100 mln$ in domestic Box Office, while being also avaiable day and date for free on HBO Max. 

All the excuses won't change the fact that The Suicide Squad is one big flop. 

Some people around here are acting like they work for Warner PR departament, coming constantly with new excuses and spins to justify poor performance, talk about dedication lol 

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True story: I have a close friend who does market research for a major film studio and who had a job interview with Warnermedia for a promotion, and he did his diligence upon the offer and heard so many bad things about how it is internally at WB that he turned the job down. Apparently Discovery is well-respected, though, so they might improve things.

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2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Have they even filmed The Matrix yet?
 

I feel like less people care about that than WB think. 

They filmed it months ago. And I'm sure a lot of people would care about a new sequel to the biggest R-rated franchise in the past 20 years. Definitely more than any of the other sequels WB has released this year.

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The question for Matrix is not really if they want to move or not, is more if they already made agreements for HBO Max. If they already sign papers and paid Lana and everyone involved i have a hard time seeing they undoing it. They still can because there's time to do it, but idk if they would change everything again if it's done.

 

The only movie that we know they didn't reach a deal back then was Dune, which now we know it's done, this one is not going back to theaters only and we need to accept it.

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46 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think 45 is too late. 17 days PA/PVOD is more than fine in today's time. That gives the exclusivity to theatrical run as well keep the prospects of streaming services high as well. 

 

Hell no.  17 days is way way way way too short.  45 days is even too short for a lot of films.  

 

What is the hurry to slam these movies on streaming where they will exist in eternity while cutting off other viable revenue streams for the film?  Why the rush?  

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Movie nerd said:

Excuses excuses excuses.. 

All the excuses when Godzilla vs Kong film from failing and decresing franchise made over 100 mln$ in domestic Box Office, while being also avaiable day and date for free on HBO Max. 

All the excuses won't change the fact that The Suicide Squad is one big flop. 

Some people around here are acting like they work for Warner PR departament, coming constantly with new excuses and spins to justify poor performance, talk about dedication lol 

No one is making excuses, pointing that putting a movie available for free in a streaming platform the same date it's on theaters hurt it it's simply obvious.

 

Of course some movies suffer more because release conditions aren't the only thing that perpass box office.

 

But from we know, even GxK which is their best proof of that strategy working could double that without this environment, we will never know. The trailer for this movie just explode and hype was truly gigantic, maybe it did fine despite HBO Max because it would be MUCH bigger without it, who knows.

Edited by ThomasNicole
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King Richard is a potential big breakout hit that appeals more to an older and more college-educated, streamer having audience, that is a movie like that which will be hurt by HBO Max more than something people have been waiting for 20 years blockbuster like The Matrix. 

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14 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Have they even filmed The Matrix yet?
 

I feel like less people care about that than WB think. 

Yep. It’s been in post for ages. 

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