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Eric Madrigal

Weekend Thread: Free Guy 28.4, Don't Breathe 10.6, Jungle Cruise 9, Respect 8.8, TSS 7.75

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14 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Have they even filmed The Matrix yet?
 

I feel like less people care about that than WB think. 

It was shot last year (albeit with a long pause in shooting for obvious reasons, we'll see if that becomes apparent in the final product).

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15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Have they even filmed The Matrix yet?
 

I feel like less people care about that than WB think. 

 

It's finished.

 

It's in a Wonder Woman 84 situation where the entire plot has been on the net for months now.

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14 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

They filmed it months ago. And I'm sure a lot of people would care about a new sequel to the biggest R-rated franchise in the past 20 years. Definitely more than any of the other sequels WB has released this year.

That’s interesting. I’ve never heard anyone mention it. I liked the first film, hated the second and therefore have never seen the third. Which looks to be in line with the box office returns. 

Edited by Krissykins
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This weekend should at least give studios the confidence to not move anything back further. Too bad nobody seems likely to take advantage of September at this point, which is pretty much dead aside from Shang-Chi now that Venom abandoned the month.

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18 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

What is the hurry to slam these movies on streaming where they will exist in eternity while cutting off other viable revenue streams for the film?  Why the rush?  

There is gonna be point of maximum returns for Box Office & PA. If they want premium money i.e. PA/PVOD it should be close to release. 17 days is eternity nowdays. 45 days is too late. 

 

Make the movie free on service may be 3-5 months later.

 

I think Korea did 4 weeks PVOD window, worked quite well there. India we have 4/8 week streaming window.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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44 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Yes. I agree. But, I think you'll get essentially the same number of subs regardless. Netflix is an outlier. I don't see HBO getting close to that number ever. They're at 1/5 of it. Disney maybe but they're actually doing theatrically exclusive stuff like Shang Chi, Free Guy and Eternals.

 

I think they'd get same number subs regardless AND could make money via exhibitioners and PVOD in addition to that.

I agree that eventually they’d get there. But it’s be a few years longer. Is it really the worst move into he world to sacrifice some box office to get there quicker and operating at full scale? I don’t think it so bad. Yea these movies could be moved and make some more but at that point they’re just clogging the schedule too

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Human beings continue to forget the lessons of immediate gratification vs. delayed gratification.  

 

In almost every instance, the principle of delayed gratification is superior in every way.  This goes for everything from sex to food to marketing to movies.  The journey taking a bit longer is profitable in ways too many don't consider.  

 

Netflix is finally learning this lesson.  Disney+ should have taught their CEO this lesson.  

 

When it comes to shows and movies, the slower the better.  If you have a hit show that has 10 episodes, you are an absolute moron if you dump it all at once and let it be consumed/binged and enter and leave the cultural conversation in a matter of days.  If you release it week by week, you get months of conversation and it enters the cultural zeitgeist.  It attracts millions more viewers that otherwise wouldn't have watched.

 

Same thing with movies.  Dumping them in theaters and streaming the same day is the easiest way to ensure you get the least amount of money and the least amount of cultural impact.

 

If you let it "slowly" build with a theatrical release followed by PVOD and then on subscriber streaming, you just kept your product on the mind of consumers for at least 3-6 months instead of a single weekend. 

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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If they want premium money i.e. PA/PVOD it should be close to release. 17 days is eternity nowdays.

 

Make the movie free on service may be 3-5 months later.

 

I think Korea did 4 weeks PVOD window, worked quite well there. India we have 4/8 week streaming window.

How do they decide 4 wk from 8 wk though? Success at the box office? 

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1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

Human beings continue to forget the lessons of immediate gratification vs. delayed gratification.  

 

In almost every instance, the principle of delayed gratification is superior in every way.  This goes for everything from sex to food to marketing to movies.  The journey taking a bit longer is profitable in ways too many don't consider.  

 

Netflix is finally learning this lesson.  Disney+ should have taught their CEO this lesson.  

 

When it comes to shows and movies, the slower the better.  If you have a hit show that has 10 episodes, you are an absolute moron if you dump it all at once and let it be consumed/binged and enter and leave the cultural conversation in a matter of days.  If you release it week by week, you get months of conversation and it enters the cultural zeitgeist.  It attracts millions more viewers that otherwise wouldn't have watched.

 

Same thing with movies.  Dumping them in theaters and streaming the same day is the easiest way to ensure you get the least amount of money and the least amount of cultural impact.

 

If you let it "slowly" build with a theatrical release followed by PVOD and then on subscriber streaming, you just kept your product on the mind of consumers for at least 3-6 months instead of a single weekend. 

Netflix is learning a lesson in a field it is trying to move into…not on the streaming side at all. I’m sure they’re crying all the way to the bank with their domestic revenue that equals the entire yearly US Box Office at its peak….

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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If they want premium money i.e. PA/PVOD it should be close to release. 17 days is eternity nowdays.

 

Make the movie free on service may be 3-5 months later.

 

I think Korea did 4 weeks PVOD window, worked quite well there. India we have 4/8 week streaming window.

 

The numbers aren't significantly different for PA/PVOD numbers if you go 45 days instead of 17 days.  

 

There is a reason 17 days feels like an "eternity", and it isn't a good one.  People have been poorly conditioned to want to consume product like hungry hungry hippos.  That needs to change.  

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1 minute ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

How do they decide 4 wk from 8 wk though? Success at the box office? 

Bollywood movies usually have to go for 8 weeks as MTCs have bigger take in bollywood box office.

 

South India MTCs share is less, so they don't have that much power in forcing the producer for 8 weeks.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

The numbers aren't significantly different for PA/PVOD numbers if you go 45 days instead of 17 days.  

 

There is a reason 17 days feels like an "eternity", and it isn't a good one.  People have been poorly conditioned to want to consume product like hungry hungry hippos.  That needs to change.  

 

Well, they may be if you want to ask folks to pay Disney' $30 per movie PA price...no way anyone would pay close to that at 17 or 45 days...

 

If you want a PA/PVOD number between full theatrical and free streaming, that's gonna need its own rethink...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This weekend should at least give studios the confidence to not move anything back further. Too bad nobody seems likely to take advantage of September at this point, which is pretty much dead aside from Shang-Chi now that Venom abandoned the month.

Not September, but as a few people suggested, moving Halloween to October 1st and then to streaming October 22nd and double dip October makes way too much sense.

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1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

There is a reason 17 days feels like an "eternity", and it isn't a good one.  People have been poorly conditioned to want to consume product like hungry hungry hippos.  That needs to change

I think the reason for that is the content is just way too much, not just movies, there's series & then stuff like tiktok/you tube.

 

And that is gonna get worse only. As late you go, that PA revenue is gonna get low. 17 days seems just about right as most blockbuster earn over 80% of their box office revenue by then. 

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1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Presales are that good?

 

I was expecting a bump but more like 9.3M saturday instead of +10M

 

If this happens Sunday can actually be pretty close to Friday and the OW will be around 29M, with a better previews - OW ratio than Jungle Cruise.

Presales ratio to Friday is much better than JC OW.

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12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This weekend should at least give studios the confidence to not move anything back further. Too bad nobody seems likely to take advantage of September at this point, which is pretty much dead aside from Shang-Chi now that Venom abandoned the month.

Feel like Dune would do well on September 24, as it’s closer to the festival hype it’ll receive and has more breathing room before Bond. But of course, Max releases have a harsh ceiling no matter what, so I guess it doesn’t matter

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8 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Not September, but as a few people suggested, moving Halloween to October 1st and then to streaming October 22nd and double dip October makes way too much sense.

October is a nightmare now. We have:

 

1: Addams Family 2, Hotel Transylvania 4 (though that might be moving to streaming), Many Saints of Newark

8: No Time to Die

15: Halloween Kills, The Last Duel, Venom 2

22: Dune, Jackass Forever, Ron's Gone Wrong, The French Dispatch (limited)

29: Antlers, Last Night in Soho

 

I guess it makes sense September is dead if stuff is gonna get squeezed out due to limited screen space.

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24 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

It's finished.

 

It's in a Wonder Woman 84 situation where the entire plot has been on the net for months now.

I believe it had test screenings and people were not exactly impressed. Could face the fate of The Suicide Squad

Edited by Maggie
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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think the reason for that is the content is just way too much, not just movies, there's series & then stuff like tiktok/you tube.

 

And that is gonna get worse only. As late you go, that PA revenue is gonna get low. 17 days seems just about right as most blockbuster earn over 80% of their box office revenue by then. 

 

Here is where I think most people miss a huge factor.  Yes, most films make 80% of their box office revenue by then, but that data is under the old system where there was a 90 day window (or really like 60 days to digital).  

 

You can't just then cut the window down to 17 days and think that there will be a linear revenue that matches with the old data.  

 

If you cut down to 17 days, you have to account that people (especially the casual moviegoer) will be conditioned to completely skip theatrical.  

 

For example, let's say in the old system in week 2 a family is deciding what to do for the weekend.  The decision to go watch a movie in a theater knowing that you won't be able to see it at home for another 6-10 weeks is going to tilt to taking the family to a theater to see the movie.  

 

Now in the scenario where the window is 17 days, if a family has to decide to go see that movie in theaters in week 2 or just wait 3 more days and they can pay $19.99 at home, what effect is that going to have on their decision?  

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