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Eric Madrigal

Weekend Thread: Free Guy 28.4, Don't Breathe 10.6, Jungle Cruise 9, Respect 8.8, TSS 7.75

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10 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

The nature of the free guy IP is more fitted for park tie ins than for another movie tbh.


I know I’m in the minority here, but I'd rather have none. 

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6 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:


I know I’m in the minority here, but I'd rather have none. 

Even if James Newton Howard scores some of it? :Gaga: 

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Some really solid predictions on the last few pages.

 

I am not sure why everyone is predicting OWs and then suddenly on the Sopranos prequel turd (it if was good it would be on Venice or Toronto) everyone goes for DOM total, but sure, I can take it.

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6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

 if was good it would be on Venice or Toronto

That really means nothing. This might go telluride (or Cry Macho does). 

Edited by lorddemaxus
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The Protege - 3/7

Reminiscence - 5/11

The Night House - 7/17

Paw Patrol - 6/20

 

Candyman - 18/50

 

Shang-Chi - 29/34/100

 

Summer going out with a MCU bang.

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Shang-Chi getting to 100 with 29 would be like a 3.45 multiplier. Higher than Black Widow, Endgame, Captain Marvel, Antman and Wasp, Infinity War, Ragnarok, Homecoming, Guardians 2, Doctor Strange, Antman


Black Panther had 3.47 and Guardians 1 had 3.54

 

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1 hour ago, CJohn said:

The Protege - 3/7

Reminiscence - 5/11

The Night House - 7/17

Paw Patrol - 6/20

 

Candyman - 18/50

 

Shang-Chi - 29/34/100

 

Summer going out with a MCU bang.

 

Way too low on Paw Patrol and Protege.  Likely way too low on everything.  

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7m might be much for The Night House. Little to no buzz and it premiered at Sundance last year. It doesn't have the A24 brand which could bring in hipster crowd: 

It Comes At Night- 5.9m

The Witch- 8.8m

Hereditary- 13.5m

 

Reminds me of, like, The Prodigy with 5.8m. I'g go with 5.5m

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Next weekend I can see:

 

Free Guy: 16.8M (-40% if it's 28M this weekend)

Paw Patrol: 9M

The Protege: 8M

The Night House: 6M

Respect: 5.8M (-35% from 9M)

Jungle Cruise: 5.7M (-35% from 8.8M)

Reminiscence: 5M

Don't Breathe: 4.5M (-55% from 10.1M)

 

Free Guy's biggest advantage next weekend is that it will gain the remaining Dolby screens occupied by Respect (it's been stealing late Dolby shows at quite a few theaters today) and might hold onto IMAX showings with how shitty Reminiscence is tracking. Paw Patrol is coming out at a really shitty time as schools are re-opening and quickly going into quarantine. If it was a week or two earlier, I could see 12-14M. If The Protege's TC expands beyond the current 2,500, maybe it will challenge 10M, but I can see enough theaters keeping Jungle Cruise instead of booking Protege to prevent that.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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Judging by the theaters around me, PAW Patrol's selling pretty well on Friday across most showtimes. Don't want to say anything super definitive until Monday, but I think sales so far do indicate it could possibly reach #1. At the very least, double digits should happen. Only real obstacle is that the film is just...not playing at Regal? At all? Even if you go on Regal's website, the film is not in their database. I dunno if it's a Paramount+ issue, since Cinemark made a huge stink over Raya back in March yet they are playing PAW Patrol, but it is very, very weird.

 

Everything else though is dire, but stereotypical of late August doldrums.

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2 hours ago, CJohn said:

The Protege - 3/7

Reminiscence - 5/11

The Night House - 7/17

Paw Patrol - 6/20

 

Candyman - 18/50

 

Shang-Chi - 29/34/100

 

Summer going out with a MCU bang.

Fine, I’ll bite

The Protege - 6/17

Reminiscence - 6/13

The Night House - 4/13

Paw Patrol - 8/25

 

Candyman - 13/33

 

Shang-Chi - 60/70/180

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4 minutes ago, Free Eric said:

Judging by the theaters around me, PAW Patrol's selling pretty well on Friday across most showtimes. Don't want to say anything super definitive until Monday, but I think sales so far do indicate it could possibly reach #1. At the very least, double digits should happen. Only real obstacle is that the film is just...not playing at Regal? At all? Even if you go on Regal's website, the film is not in their database. I dunno if it's a Paramount+ issue, since Cinemark made a huge stink over Raya back in March yet they are playing PAW Patrol, but it is very, very weird.

 

Everything else though is dire, but stereotypical of late August doldrums.

 

I'm also noticing some surprisingly strong sales for Paw Patrol. In fact, it's selling better at the same point than Boss Baby 2 was around here. Am similarly thinking it'll be a double digit opening.

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Cinemark:

Night House

Thursday- 0 (2 showings)

Friday- 0 (4 showings)

Paw Patrol- 10 seats (4 showings)

Reminiscence- 1 seat (4 showings)

 

AMC:

Night House

Thursday- 6pm (5 seats)

Friday- 0 (2 showings)

The Protege

Thursday- 6pm (3 seats)

Friday- 1 seat (2 showings)

Reminiscence- 2 seats (2 showings)

 

I don't expect many PS this weekend anyway. Maybe Paw Patrol only

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