Weekend Thread: Candyman 22.37M OW | Free Guy 13.5M, PAW Patrol 6.6M, Jungle Cruise 5M

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Candyman?

 

No way.  Reminiscence.  

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

No way.  Reminiscence.  

[BadOlCatSylvester]

In all seriousness, wow for Candyman. And @EmpireCity's numbers tend to be lower than the final numbers the studios put out, so it might be able to sniff $8M for Saturday.

[Krissykins]

Candyman increasing over its true Friday. Impressive! 

[Madhuvan]

27 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

In all seriousness, wow for Candyman. And @EmpireCity's numbers tend to be lower than the final numbers the studios put out, so it might be able to sniff $8M for Saturday.

8m probably not 7.6m-7.8m is the range. 

 

 

[Legion Again]

I don’t know what to tell you guys. It seemed pretty obvious and normal that it would bump a little from true fri, the bump being single digits is a little surprising to me on the low side (though perfectly within normal). 

[john2000]

54 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

No way.  Reminiscence.  

i knew that people judged too quickly ...that was always the plan guys start incredible low and then keep rising  see this movie hit 30 mill 6 weekend...

Edited August 29, 2021 by john2000

[Valonqar]

So 23M+ in the card rather than 22M? Nice! Go Horror!

 

Second weekend drop should be softer due to holiday, right? Even with Shang Chi taking a chunk of the crossover audience. 

Edited August 29, 2021 by Valonqar

[Krissykins]

Just now, Valonqar said:

So 23M+ in the card rather than 22M? Nice! Go Horror!

 

Second weekend drop should be softer due to holiday, right? Even with Shang Chi taking a chunk of the crossover audience. 

ShangChi is also taking all PLF’s, from which Candyman made 1/4 of its money. 
 

What sort of Sunday hold are you predicting for it to go to $23m?
 

I’m assuming it’ll fall 30% on Sunday just like Don’t Breathe 2 and The Night House so I’d imagine $21.8m.

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

ShangChi is also taking all PLF’s, from which Candyman made 1/4 of its money. 
 

What sort of Sunday hold are you predicting for it to go to $23m?
 

I’m assuming it’ll fall 30% on Sunday just like Don’t Breathe 2 and The Night House so I’d imagine $21.8m.

 

Oh don't mind me! I'm bad at predictions. I was right that 8.4M amd 6.8M looked too low because it was common sense based on tracking but I'm no predictor. I just see that it's going to be 21-22M maaaaaybe a bit more if Sunday really soft, rather than officially projected 20.7M. I'm still learning.  Good point about PLFs which I didn't take into consideration. Still think it won't fall off the cliff next week. 

[CJohn]

The market needs Candyman to not fall off a cliff next weekend. Depth is important in the top 10. Hopefully Candyman and Free Guy are strong holdhovers to Shang-Chi's big opening.

[EmpireCity]

8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The market needs Candyman to not fall off a cliff next weekend. Depth is important in the top 10. Hopefully Candyman and Free Guy are strong holdhovers to Shang-Chi's big opening.

 

Almost every single time that happens, you have a big preview number + Friday, then a drop on Saturday followed by a bigger than normal drop on Sunday.  

 

Candyman is doing the exact opposite.  It had a smaller preview number followed by a better than expected Friday.  Then it had a really good increase on Saturday and likely will have a smaller than normal drop on Sunday.  

 

It all indicates that with a Holiday weekend, great reviews and strong word of mouth it will have a good 2nd week.  

[EmpireCity]

I also think Free Guy and Jungle Cruise are going to play really well next weekend.  

[CJohn]

16 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I also think Free Guy and Jungle Cruise are going to play really well next weekend.  

Jungle Cruise is a bit too low for my taste to really matter but it might increase a bit thanks to the holidays. Hopefully Free Guy and Candyman stay above 10M.

 

September looks a bit dire, unless I am forgetting something. All I remember are the two WB HBO Max releases. October is where the next real test is.

[Legion Again]

Free Guy and JC have been playing great all month and are just the demo to have the 4day be like +33% from the 3day. They should do great, especially since there is so much other low PSA dreck to clean out for SC.

 

Candyman had a, at best, normal Sat. Agreed the th:tfti was healthy though. An IM of 11.5 or so with a normal Sun seems likely.    

 

Agree with krissykin that the high PLF % the weekend before getting PLF slammed doesn't bode great. It would be lucky imo to ride the boosted Sun to a 50% drop from pure fss, for 10M3 day 12ish 4day. Plausible behind FG, could be a case where Candy takes the 3D and FG the 4D.

 

[Nikostar]

I am starting to think Candyman will have a really good hold next week. It seems to have a lot of people interested. 

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Again, feel free to track what I have said and what my actual predictions have been.  Would love love love for you to revisit this when they are released and see how it went.  

 

Well, it took you til yesterday for an "actual number" Shangi Chi prediction, which we now know is $60M+ 3 day...so I do thank you for finally posting that vs "don't underestimate this movie" and "you'll be surprised" - for the board, I think it puts you in the top 1/2 of expecters:)...

[Legion Again]

Is Mr Positive On Movies During Delta really going just for 60M 3day? Downright conservative.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Is Mr Positive On Movies During Delta really going just for 60M 3day? Downright conservative.

 

It also isn't a number that would turn Shang Chi into a profitable release from its theatrical only...

 

But, look, it's a number at least...I would contend it's one that would show the industry is no better than it was in July, b/c Shang Chi $20M less than Black Widow when it's a theatrical only and BW was a PVOD day and date would be a subpar result at best, even with it being a new character.  Now, subpar doesn't mean unexpected, b/c the industry, as I stated, is still in subpar right now...

 

Funny enough, he's close to my expectations from weeks ago, before tracking started (not under JC, not over BW, with Shang Chi going closer to the lower than the higher), so I guess optimism, pessimism, and realism are all based on what color glasses you have...

 

EDIT TO ADD: And tracking seems like I'm gonna be a little low, but since the last week matters the most, I'm not really changing my expectations b/c where's the fun in that...for those wondering , the tracking thread seems like Thurs previews are gonna be around $7-8M if their trend continues (as it has so far) this week...could still go higher or a little lower, but that's where it is...

Edited August 29, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[Legion Again]

There’s nothing subpar about 60M under the circumstances and for a new character (though I would, personally, be a little disappointed by it). And 60 would be substantially toward the 80 end of a 35-80 range (which is comically broad to begin with).   
 

Finally the industry would be ecstatic to learn that it was 

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

no better than it was in July

given that the case avg will be at ~200k vs 30k.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Lokis Legion