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Weekend Thread: Candyman 22.37M OW | Free Guy 13.5M, PAW Patrol 6.6M, Jungle Cruise 5M

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3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

There’s nothing subpar about 60M under the circumstances and for a new character (though I would, personally, be a little disappointed by it). And 60 would be substantially toward the 80 end of a 35-80 range (which is comically broad to begin with).   
 

Finally the industry would be ecstatic to learn that it was 

given that the case avg will be at ~200k vs 30k.

 

Oh, yeah, 60+ would mean I'm a little low - I admit that in my edit...but why change my expectation from pre-tracking:)...we get on the pros for having bad guesses weeks out, and I'm due for one, although my original WAG was way better than Deadline's original 4 day $23M:)...

 

And who knows - we could have a weird weekend...it's already weird b/c it's Labor Day and there's peaking Covid and weird theater hours...what's more weirdness for the weekend that having expected presales and then a whack multiplier from them:)...

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20 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Is Mr Positive On Movies During Delta really going just for 60M 3day? Downright conservative.

 

29 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Well, it took you til yesterday for an "actual number" Shangi Chi prediction, which we now know is $60M+ 3 day...so I do thank you for finally posting that vs "don't underestimate this movie" and "you'll be surprised" - for the board, I think it puts you in the top 1/2 of expecters:)...

 

Holy shit, I was one of a few on here saying "don't underestimate this movie" and "you'll be surprised" when the board was in full on freak out mode right after TSS swearing up and down it was moving and Chapek was about to announce it was going to PA on the shareholders call and that it wasn't going to touch a $30m opening and Delta would destroy everything and this was the movie that would be a disaster and lead to PA on everything for Disney going forward.  

 

Yeah, so saying $60m+ 3 day when a ton of people on here (including yourselves I believe) were going all sky is falling right around the fist week in August isn't all that conservative. 

 

How did those freak out posts go though?  I mean, exactly one movie was pulled from the release calendar (the second toddler dog movie from the same studio within a month) and Sony moved a movie back 3 weeks.  Those "won't touch $30m opening and will go to PA or be moved" are now calling $60m+ 3 day "conservative".  

 

Thankfully this board is searchable and has a loooooong memory.  I'll be excited for that in a few months.  

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7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

including yourselves I believe

Uhhh…. No.Well, I mean, misfits certainly. But they don’t think 60M is conservative even right now. They are way low on the movie still. We are two very different people.  If I had been pessimistic in early August we’d have a very different story. 
 

Please, enjoy searching up my Shang-chi posts through August, if you have the time. You’ll find that I’m quite justified in calling 60M conservative.   
 

Though to be clear, it’s more that 60 is conservative from a (vocally, but as misfits points out, rather vaguely) self-styled optimist on the subject. It would be aggressive from a self-styled pessimistic or normal seeming from a  self-styled realist. 

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5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

 

Holy shit, I was one of a few on here saying "don't underestimate this movie" and "you'll be surprised" when the board was in full on freak out mode right after TSS swearing up and down it was moving and Chapek was about to announce it was going to PA on the shareholders call and that it wasn't going to touch a $30m opening and Delta would destroy everything and this was the movie that would be a disaster and lead to PA on everything for Disney going forward.  

 

Yeah, so saying $60m+ 3 day when a ton of people on here (including yourselves I believe) were going all sky is falling right around the fist week in August isn't all that conservative. 

 

How did those freak out posts go though?  I mean, exactly one movie was pulled from the release calendar (the second toddler dog movie from the same studio within a month) and Sony moved a movie back 3 weeks.  Those "won't touch $30m opening and will go to PA or be moved" are now calling $60m+ 3 day "conservative".  

 

Thankfully this board is searchable and has a loooooong memory.  I'll be excited for that in a few months.  

Accusing @Lokis Legion of lowballing when he made this club???

 

Your $60m 3 day isn't that aggressive in my opinion. 

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12 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

 

Holy shit, I was one of a few on here saying "don't underestimate this movie" and "you'll be surprised" when the board was in full on freak out mode right after TSS swearing up and down it was moving and Chapek was about to announce it was going to PA on the shareholders call and that it wasn't going to touch a $30m opening and Delta would destroy everything and this was the movie that would be a disaster and lead to PA on everything for Disney going forward.  

 

Yeah, so saying $60m+ 3 day when a ton of people on here (including yourselves I believe) were going all sky is falling right around the fist week in August isn't all that conservative. 

 

How did those freak out posts go though?  I mean, exactly one movie was pulled from the release calendar (the second toddler dog movie from the same studio within a month) and Sony moved a movie back 3 weeks.  Those "won't touch $30m opening and will go to PA or be moved" are now calling $60m+ 3 day "conservative".  

 

Thankfully this board is searchable and has a loooooong memory.  I'll be excited for that in a few months.  

 

Actually since then, we've had the following changes:

- Venom kicked from Sept to Oct - further kicks still TBD

- Clifford pulled entirely from the Sept schedule

- Addams Family 2 went Day and Date

- Hotel Transylvania 4 pulled from the schedule for a digital release

 

And I've never said the sky is falling...I've always said we're in a recovery period which cannot handle multiple blockbusters at once...nothing about the current viral and theatrical status has shown me this summer we can handle them right now into the fall, either.  

 

I was pro-releasing Tenet last year.  I was pro HBO getting a set schedule to give theaters real product this year, even if it was day and date.  Someone had to step up with some way to help theaters and they did.  I was pro Universal sharing PVOD money with theaters for their releases.  I am pro-movies releasing...but right now, it has to be smart.  This fall schedule is not smart.  The kid movie issue has been solved, and I expect Encanto to move for Ron's Gone Wrong (since that movie has spent a lot advertising this summer, while Encanto hasn't touched a dime) and to go free on Xmas or to 2022.  But the "adult" movie issues of overstuffing has not been solved yet (although it was for Sept).  Maybe b/c it's been obvious the kid movies can't draw like they have in 2019 with no vaccine, but studios keep hoping for the adult ones...

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3 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Accusing @Lokis Legion of lowballing when he made this club???

 

Your $60m 3 day isn't that aggressive in my opinion. 

To be fair to EC, that club was after PS start and two weeks removed from TSS. I believe his basic point (accurate) was there that were a bunch of chicken littles around here after and leading up to TSS — Aug 1-10, or so. And they shouldn’t be calling him conservative on SC, even if they have now changed to be more bullish on it than him, because it was going against that earlier grain which he stuck his neck out on.  
 

Which is all very fair. But doesn’t apply to me, specifically. I’ve been optimistic (vs the average, I would say realistic) all the way though.

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3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

To be fair to EC, that club was after PS start and two weeks removed from TSS. I believe his basic point (accurate) was there that were a bunch of chicken littles around here after and leading up to TSS — Aug 1-10, or so. And they shouldn’t be calling him conservative on SC, even if they have now changed to be more bullish on it than him, because it was going against that earlier grain which he stuck his neck out on.  
 

Which is all very fair. But doesn’t apply to me, specifically. I’ve been optimistic (vs the average, I would say realistic) all the way though.

 

But, he didn't...til yesterday, there was no number, and I asked him 2-3 times in Shang Chi's thread for one every time he'd post...he didn't even join the clubs then, either.  You can't say you're right now or always been bullish b/c the tracking thread hands you a good number on a platter a week out...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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10 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Drama everywhere today fitting time for Kanye release :bagoverhead:

 

I personally think 60m+ for Shang-Chi is great :bouncy:

It certainly would best BO Pro’s 35-55 tracking from weeks ago. 
 

 

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On 8/11/2021 at 11:35 PM, Lokis Legion said:

Could have run back 150M and I’d still be OUT.

 

On 8/12/2021 at 2:13 PM, Lokis Legion said:

Pretty solid OD/OW prediction, maybe a little on the pessimistic side.

I was curious about what concrete numbers I put out around TSS opening, looks like these were the only two. I think I was trying to avoid too precise numbers before PS started, but this vs the contemporary comments in the thread is still pretty clear. 

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19 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But, he didn't...til yesterday, there was no number, and I asked him 2-3 times in Shang Chi's thread for one every time he'd post...he didn't even join the clubs then, either.  You can't say you're right now or always been bullish b/c the tracking thread hands you a good number on a platter a week out...

He did though. I did see you repeatedly ask him for some real nums, and I wish he had responded then so I knew he wasn’t as optimistic as I assumed from the imprecise language. But you can still take a position without giving a precise number if you’re dunking on people who are giving numbers as being way too low, which he did.

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Anyway, gotta go to bed. Numbers for this weekend, where the story is Candyman, are gonna roll in soon so I am happy to wrap this tangent up here:  

50M 3day would be, like, okay I guess. Better/high end of many recent expectations

60M would be pretty strong

70M would be excellent

80M would be extremely slammin’  

 

It’s probably going for like 69+- 6, though I would love an upside surprise.

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16 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But, he didn't...til yesterday, there was no number, and I asked him 2-3 times in Shang Chi's thread for one every time he'd post...he didn't even join the clubs then, either.  You can't say you're right now b/c the tracking thread hands you a good number on a platter a week out...

 

I've never, ever joined a club on this site.  I don't really give out some predictive number, but I would think that anyone could figure I was well above the $30m opening nonsense.  I go off of data and a gut feeling of 

 

Sorry, there are quite a few on here that have been going full chicken little and getting upset when someone (me) dares to tell them that this COVID shit is winding down and that nothing of substance really is moving and things are going to go back to a lot closer of what normal was.  

 

I tried to tell you and many others that even before Delta was a thing that it clearly was coming but that it wouldn't cause delays and would peak around this time (and that people and the media would freak out about it when it was peaking) and then go back down by the time September and October rolled around it would look so much different and more positive heading into the fall.  

 

It's (thankfully) turning out to be right or at least heavily trending that way.  

 

Call me smug or an asshole or whatever, but bottom line is I do actually get paid to analyze and predict these sort of things and how they tie into the box office.  I get access to data and charts none of you here (except maybe 1 or 2 others) ever have access to.  I don't watch any normal media like CNN or FoxNews where all they do all day is freak out and scream back and forth in a slanted way.  I follow the financial channels who have cold hearted bastards that don't give a shit about politics or freaking out or anecdotal stories.  They deal in data and make decisions based on that data and their gut feelings based on experience that tell them which way things are heading.  

 

Those people all are and were pointing in the same way I have been pointing on here.  It's never guaranteed to be 100% accurate and I can and of course have been wrong before, but there is too much data from too many smart people with a ton of money riding on these decisions that were all saying roughly the same thing.  

 

As far as specific number go, I never really say a super specific number way out other than a "hell, maybe this?" type of range because so much can change.  Too many people are dead set on trying to predict a specific number or tight range way too far out as if some magical box office fairy is gong to show up and give them a cookie for being right on the money.  I won't do that, but I will tell you generally where my gut and the data is pointing.  

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1 hour ago, Lokis Legion said:

Free Guy and JC have been playing great all month and are just the demo to have the 4day be like +33% from the 3day. They should do great, especially since there is so much other low PSA dreck to clean out for SC.

 

Candyman had a, at best, normal Sat. Agreed the th:tfti was healthy though. An IM of 11.5 or so with a normal Sun seems likely.    

 

Agree with krissykin that the high PLF % the weekend before getting PLF slammed doesn't bode great. It would be lucky imo to ride the boosted Sun to a 50% drop from pure fss, for 10M3 day 12ish 4day. Plausible behind FG, could be a case where Candy takes the 3D and FG the 4D.

 

 

11.5 would be the second best preview to OW multiplier for any horror this year (Spiral got 11.51x). 
 

AQP2 9.89x

Old 11.2x

Purge 9.4x

Escape Room 7.33x

Spiral 11.51x

Don't Breathe 10.8x

The Night House 10.99x

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3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

11.5 would be the second best preview to OW multiplier for any horror this year (Spiral got 11.51x). 
 

AQP2 9.89x

Old 11.2x

Purge 9.4x

Escape Room 7.33x

Spiral 11.51x

Don't Breathe 10.8x

The Night House 10.99x

Notable Spiral is the only one of these which wasn’t more summer than Candyman. The seasonal influence on Th:F:S:S ratios isn’t everything, but it is pretty important to keep in mind.

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Moderation

 

I swear to God the things you guys do when I'm asleep....

 

@EmpireCity the attitude you're positioning over the past few hours has got to stop. You're picking fights with users, attacking folks who dare to be even mildly pessimistic about the future, and are passively-aggressively insulting folks left and right for not thinking exactly like you. I'm sure you have a million reasons why you think your behavior is justified and that it's the rest of the forum's fault or that I'm out to get you, but I don't care. Your behavior has zero justification and it's getting incredibly old.

 

So I'm going to say this upfront to you. If you don't clean up your attitude and treat fellow users in a more respectful manner, you will see a suspension from the forums. You're only two warning points away, so I suggest you be careful. And if you really don't like what I'm saying or think that I'm being too ridiculous for whatever reason, just know that we aren't the only place on the Internet where you can talk about box office.

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Theatrical will be fine and there should be little to no concern for the blockbusters of the fall even if they don't live up to whatever their pre-COVID potential was.

 

What I would be worried about though is everything that isn't an IP-based property or a horror title (the one genre that seems to have thrived the most during the pandemic) and looking to make most of its money from the Oscar crowd, especially when the data still hasn't shown much sign of that audience coming back for anything. We've already seen Respect wave the white flag given that it's already available on PVOD after seeing last weekend it was locked to barely make more than Judy (it would've at least doubled what that movie did in normal times). Mentioned in the other thread yesterday that this is probably the plan for all the awards contenders this fall, so we probably shouldn't bet against the possibility that, say, West Side Story (a movie that will definitely appeal mainly to older demographics) has a surprise "Available On Demand Christmas Day" announcement prepared as a worst case scenario if its grosses over the two weeks before when it opens are deemed highly insufficient compared to whatever their expectations for it are.

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9 minutes ago, Eric Robitaille said:

Moderation

 

I swear to God the things you guys do when I'm asleep....

 

@EmpireCity the attitude you're positioning over the past few hours has got to stop. You're picking fights with users, attacking folks who dare to be even mildly pessimistic about the future, and are passively-aggressively insulting folks left and right for not thinking exactly like you. I'm sure you have a million reasons why you think your behavior is justified and that it's the rest of the forum's fault or that I'm out to get you, but I don't care. Your behavior has zero justification and it's getting incredibly old.

 

So I'm going to say this upfront to you. If you don't clean up your attitude and treat fellow users in a more respectful manner, you will see a suspension from the forums. You're only two warning points away, so I suggest you be careful. And if you really don't like what I'm saying or think that I'm being too ridiculous for whatever reason, just know that we aren't the only place on the Internet where you can talk about box office.

 

HaHa.  That was a lot of words to say when you could have just posted this about me...

 

the-big-lebowski-youre-not-wrong.gif

 

I'm not upset or any of those things you supposed in that post.  I'm actually smiling because it's just confirmation of what I know and have known.  I ended up being right about this and a lot of other stuff, and me pointing that out (while others are talking just as much shit and taking all kinds of shots at me that you of course don't seem to care about including a few you took yourself a few weeks ago when Clifford of all things was pulled from the schedule and ended up being so very wrong) hurts feelings.  

 

Don't worry Eric, I'll be nicer to people about me being right.  I won't cause any issues.  Hope that helps and is enough for you to not suspend me.  

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