Weekend Thread: Candyman 22.37M OW | Free Guy 13.5M, PAW Patrol 6.6M, Jungle Cruise 5M

[EmpireCity]

I think another one you are missing in December is Nightmare Alley.  

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Sing 2 feels like SLOP2 all over again.

 

Nah, Sing 2 is just Sing 1 continued...in all ways...

 

For Xmas, I can see 2 other movies being supported that week around Spidey and everything else bombing...The Matrix movie can't/won't move (it's guaranteed to go HBO Max, and they want to finish this year off, and it will be the "Xmas reward" for them to get the expensive subscribers that we think Encanto might be for Disney), so it's gonna be set there and Sing 2 fills the "kid movie" role and it did so well the 1st time in the spot (and this movie has also started spending acres advertising in theaters right now)...everything else should REALLY consider whether they want to be "that movie" going unbooked or almost non-showed just to get maybe a week's worth of full shows at what it can get...

 

Aka - Underdog, Nightingale, the King's Man, and a Journal for Jordan - some or all of these should blink...they should look at TFA to see what their max box office (if theaters are totally normal) will look like, and then add on that we won't be through Covid completely worldwide and plan accordingly

Edited August 29, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[EmpireCity]

As much as I have been adamant that the calendar isn't changing, I do think we will see a few changes in a positive way in the next few weeks.  Venice, TIFF and other festival reactions might dictate some movement.  

[Cmasterclay]

I still maintain that people are going to be stunned when a Matrix trailer actually drops how many people come out of the woodwork hyped. Easily the most anticipated movie of the year among the 30-40 year olds I spend all my time with now, who are a good moviegoing crowd. Wait till the marketing to put a nail in that coffin.

 

I think Matrix is a little underestimated here because most of us are either in early-mid 20s or over 40, and don't realize that the Matrix is like Star Wars to people who graduated high school in the 2000-2005 range. If you have an older brother/sister, you know.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Cmasterclay

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I still maintain that people are going to be stunned when a Matrix trailer actually drops how many people come out of the woodwork hyped. Easily the most anticipated movie of the year among the 30-40 year olds I spend all my time with now, who are a good moviegoing crowd. Wait till the marketing to put a nail in that coffin.

 

I think Matrix is a little underestimated here because most of us are either in early-mid 20s or over 40, and don't realize that the Matrix is like Star Wars to people who graduated high school in the 2000-2005 range. If you have an older brother/sister, you know.

They better drop this shit with Malignant September 10.

 

This is a 200M movie, they can't release the trailer a month before.

[Eric Atreides]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I still maintain that people are going to be stunned when a Matrix trailer actually drops how many people come out of the woodwork hyped. Easily the most anticipated movie of the year among the 30-40 year olds I spend all my time with now, who are a good moviegoing crowd. Wait till the marketing to put a nail in that coffin.

 

I think Matrix is a little underestimated here because most of us are either in early-mid 20s or over 40, and don't realize that the Matrix is like Star Wars to people who graduated high school in the 2000-2005 range. If you have an older brother/sister, you know.

Honestly my issue is less Matrix's potential and more on the Max release. The opening weekend ceiling has only been about 30-35M so far for WB titles this year, and while I'm aware Space Jam and The Suicide Squad probably weren't going to open to 60M+ or whatever, I do think the movie being free to stream does diminish the opening weekend potential quite a bit here. That's why I've been saying a couple weeks back that Dune and Matrix should be exempt from the dual release, if only because they'll be forced into grossing 35M/75M, but I guess it's too late for that now.

[EmpireCity]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I still maintain that people are going to be stunned when a Matrix trailer actually drops how many people come out of the woodwork hyped. Easily the most anticipated movie of the year among the 30-40 year olds I spend all my time with now, who are a good moviegoing crowd. Wait till the marketing to put a nail in that coffin.

 

I think Matrix is a little underestimated here because most of us are either in early-mid 20s or over 40, and don't realize that the Matrix is like Star Wars to people who graduated high school in the 2000-2005 range. If you have an older brother/sister, you know.

 

I have to say, I am one of those people and I saw the trailer a few days ago and I was underwhelmed and think it is going to be a bit too confusing for the general audience.  That coupled with the test screenings supposedly saying that it is so out there I don't know if it will be a huge hit.  

[WrathOfHan]

17 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I would be shocked if Wolf holds that date.  Focus didn't say anything about it at CinemaCon, it has no poster, no trailer and doesn't seem like they will have it stick there.  

Universal usually has an early December genre dump, so I wouldn't be surprised if Focus just has low confidence in it. It's premiering at TIFF out of competition.

 

16 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I think another one you are missing in December is Nightmare Alley.  

Do you know anything about its release strategy? If it follows Shape of Water and The Favourite I'd probably expect 3-4M over Christmas.

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, Jamiem said:

I'm personally leaning towards O/U 80m for the 3 day, could be very wrong but a few factors below: 

 

I feel Canada could over index due to Simu being from Canada and having a popular local show (Kim's Convenience) + higher percentage of Chinese Canadians vs. Chinese Americans. 

Most big films have trended up over the weekend recently (Jungle Cruise, Free Guy, Don't Breathe 2 and Candyman.) 

4 Day weekend makes Sunday like a 2nd Saturday. 

Strong WOM from those early screenings.

No PA.

preaching to the club 😛 

 

 Just gotta have sales pop this final week, I do still think it’s well within reason but want to keep expectations shaded a little just in case.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Cmasterclay]

5 minutes ago, Eric Robitaille said:

Honestly my issue is less Matrix's potential and more on the Max release. The opening weekend ceiling has only been about 30-35M so far for WB titles this year, and while I'm aware Space Jam and The Suicide Squad probably weren't going to open to 60M+ or whatever, I do think the movie being free to stream does diminish the opening weekend potential quite a bit here. That's why I've been saying a couple weeks back that Dune and Matrix should be exempt from the dual release, if only because they'll be forced into grossing 35M/75M, but I guess it's too late for that now.

I do think HBO Max complicates things for every release. They are also going to lose a ton of money on both Sopranos and King Richard, which I honestly would have pegged as the two mid-level breakout hits of the entire fall!

[EmpireCity]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Universal usually has an early December genre dump, so I wouldn't be surprised if Focus just has low confidence in it. It's premiering at TIFF out of competition.

 

Do you know anything about its release strategy? If it follows Shape of Water and The Favourite I'd probably expect 3-4M over Christmas.

 

Good point about TIFF, it likely will be a straight dump then.  

[Maggie]

Isn't King Richard supposed to be Will Smith's Oscar winning film? I think that could do well enough

[Cmasterclay]

4 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Isn't King Richard supposed to be Will Smith's Oscar winning film? I think that could do well enough

I'd be predicting 100 million if it wasn't for HBO Max. Trailer views and social shares are great for it.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Will Matrix lack IMAX, etc since Spider-Man will also be out?

[Legion Again]

Catching up on the thread, I see I picked a great 4 hr period to be asleep

 

Re: WoH Dec, 110 for NWH    
 

Matrix trilogy was huuuuuuuuuuuuuge, but, like Dune, it’s just some streaming movie with a theater release alongside. Doesn’t seem as cinematic as GvK, not sure it can match its 100M.

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Matrix trilogy was huuuuuuuuuuuuuge, but, like Dune, it’s just some streaming movie with a theater release alongside. Doesn’t seem as cinematic as GvK, not sure it can match its 100M.

They're all theatrical movies with a streaming release alongside. And less cinematic than GvK? Wachowkis are incapable of making a movie less cinematic than that.

Edited August 29, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

They're all theatrical movies with a streaming release alongside. And less cinematic than GvK? wut?

I don’t think the GA agrees with your first sentence at this point, lol. I’m sure that’s how the directors want to think of it, but their wishes won’t make the consumers act as such. Cinematic as in needing to be seen in a cinema (instead of your living room).

Edited August 29, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Legion Again]

Anyway the FG drop is basically identical to last week on SatSun, just not weighed down by the Th previews anymore. 13M was where I had it like 7 days ago. 

[lorddemaxus]

Just now, Lokis Legion said:

I don’t think the GA agrees with your first sentence at this point, lol. Cinematic as in needing to be seen in a cinema (instead of your living room).

I'm pretty sure more people will want to watch the sequel (after an almost 20 year hiatus) in a franchise that's literally known for it's visual spectacle and innovative VFX work in the cinemas than at home. And Dune's pretty much being sold as a theatrical event, not a streaming release.

[Eric Atreides]

5 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm pretty sure more people will want to watch the sequel (after an almost 20 year hiatus) in a franchise that's literally known for it's visual spectacle and innovative VFX work in the cinemas than at home. And Dune's pretty much being sold as a theatrical event, not a streaming release.

In the Heights and The Suicide Squad were also sold as big theatrical events you had to see on the big screen and IMAX especially. Granted a good chunk of that promo was because of Chu and Gunn, but sadly people will go for the free, convenient one, regardless of how well it plays on the big screen.