Weekend Thread: Candyman 22.37M OW | Free Guy 13.5M, PAW Patrol 6.6M, Jungle Cruise 5M

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

And here's a trivia question for all of you.

 

Without looking it up, what was the last film to make 200 mill domestic?

Bad Boys for Life. Pretty easy question tbh  

[cax16]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Not getting political.  Just saying strictly from a box office perspective.   

Fair enough, my bad, sorry. 
 

Just want to add, for myself and my family, the only way we’ll be back in a theatre before the end of the year is if case counts drop and we have a vaccine passport. We were going to movies 1-3 times a month before covid and I’ve only been once since March of 2020. 

Edited August 29, 2021 by cax16

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

And here's a trivia question for all of you.

 

Without looking it up, what was the last film to make 200 mill domestic?

 

Bad Boys for Life  - but I admit I had to check after I thought it did, to make sure it actually got there and didn't peter out with the closures...

[dudalb]

17 minutes ago, baumer said:

Some quick thoughts. 

 

First, I know I haven't been around much in the last 18 months.  I've had a lot of personal things going on.  I'm hoping to be more active here this fall.  I miss some of you nerds.

 

Terrific opening for Candyman.  I didn't see that coming.  Great weekend multiplier and the WOM looks to be strong.  I'm hoping to see it tonight.

 

As a Reynolds fan, it's awesome to see Free Guy doing well.  It's my favourite film of the year so far and if I'm not mistaken, along with Jungle Cruise, this will be the only original property to cross 100 mill domestic.  No sequel, no super heroes, no comic book crowd.  Fantastic to see that.

 

Now some bad news.  Vaccine passports are coming fast and furious to Canada.  BC, Quebec and now Ontario (about 27 of the 37 million people) are now vax passport provinces.  This means that about 25% of the population will not be able to go to a movie theatre.  I'm not sure how many states are going to follow suit.   But here, it's getting pretty draconian.  

 

As for other films I haven't commented on....what a terrific performance by AQP2.  That gross makes me really happy.  

Same with Black Widow, especially considering how well it did simultaneously on D+.

Suicide Squad....wow, what a disaster.

F9 still going strong during Covid.  I think it would of had a chance at 900 during non Covid times.

 

I've been reading that Shang-Chi is going to open to 60 million.  I don't see that happening.  I'll probably be wrong (my box office skills are weak at the moment) I'm thinking more like 45 three day.

 

Hope you're all well.

 

 

 

 

I disagree this is bad news. We have tried  nice, polite methods with COvid and they just havenot worked.

Draconian measures seem to be the only thing that will finally get this under control.

Franky,  getting Covid under control should be the ONLY priority.

[lorddemaxus]

9 minutes ago, Eric Robitaille said:

Obviously it's not the same thing, but Black Widow also was sold as a theatrical event with Premier Access being pushed on the down low in a lot of promos and materials. Especially in comparison to stuff like Cruella or Jungle Cruise. Yet its OW still suffered because of this. People know this is coming to HBO Max, and it'll very likely get pimped out on the HBO Max app, on Fire Stick home pages, on PS5 home pages, etc. when it drops, making it even more known.

Put me down as one of the people who doesn't think BW's opening weekend was affected as much as some others here think so (like I don't think it would've opened to $120 mil without PA), but I'm not saying Dune's OW won't suffer (as I said, predicting $35 mil OW which seems pretty reasonable). I just think framing the film as a streaming release (implying barely anyone will see it in cinemas, when most people probably will) feels wrong to me. 

[narniadis]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

And here's a trivia question for all of you.

 

Without looking it up, what was the last film to make 200 mill domestic?

Bad Boys 3 I assume

[Pinacolada]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ok

 

Wolf: 3/7

 

West Side Story: 20/120

Violence of Action: 8/20

 

Spider-Man: 110/420

 

Sing: 40/200

Matrix: 50/140 (thanks HBO Max!)

The King's Man: 15/55

American Underdog: 10/50

Soggy Bottom: 8/35

A Journal for Jordan: 3/9

Yeah Idk what STX is doing with that Violence of Action release date. I'm actually looking forward to that. Hoping it's a solid R rated action thriller. But it's not going to Festivals meaning it's probably no Hell or High Water.

 

Should just move to the Spring, or next Summer as counter-programming

[CJohn]

King Richard, Matrix and Dune are all screwed because of the HBO Max dual release. Forget about those. We are looking at maybe something like:

 

King Richard - 11/35

Matrix - 30/65

Dune - 20/45

[Napoleon]

I think people are underestimating Dune and Matrix. Godzilla v Kong opened to $32m in a time when movies like Spiral, Nobody, Raya couldn't even reach a $9m OW. Similar movies today are opening at $20-25m. Things improved a lot at the box office, maybe the reason WB releases haven't been able to top GVK is not because there's a $33m ceiling for HBO Max hybrid releases, but because audiences weren't interested in their other movies.

 

The new Suicide Squad made $2 million this weekend, while The Conjuring 3 on the same weekend made $3 million under the same release conditions (HBO Max, R-rating etc) except with mixed to negative reviews instead of raves. It's pretty clear there is a problem with the new Suicide Squad that goes beyond HBO Max.

 

Now Dune, that's a movie people are excited about on social media, and that maybe will play very well with general audiences.

[Legion Again]

Lil followup as I got curious. My suspicion (someone feel free to double check) is that AQP2 holds the post-pandemic record 4th-8th weekends atm. Really solid mid legs there. It fell behind Croods on the 9th weekend, 1.77M vs 1.795M, and then was substantially behind from the 10th onward. Of course, a lot of even huge opening and well-legging pre-pandemic movies were behind Croods for 10th weekend onward.

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, baumer said:

And here's a trivia question for all of you.

 

Without looking it up, what was the last film to make 200 mill domestic?

This is actually pretty well known I think, as it is also the highest post-2019 DOM gross and people are waiting for a post-pandemic film to finally topple it (Shang-Chi is on the case  )

[SchumacherFTW]

20 minutes ago, dudalb said:

 

 

I disagree this is bad news. We have tried  nice, polite methods with COvid and they just havenot worked.

Draconian measures seem to be the only thing that will finally get this under control.

Franky,  getting Covid under control should be the ONLY priority.

Trust me, do not engage with this one. 

[baumer]

21 minutes ago, dudalb said:

 

 

I disagree this is bad news. We have tried  nice, polite methods with COvid and they just havenot worked.

Draconian measures seem to be the only thing that will finally get this under control.

Franky,  getting Covid under control should be the ONLY priority.

 

Just talking from a box office perspective.  Not talking about it in any other way.  

[CoolioD1]

despite being The Biggest Movie of the Twenties bad boys 3 is pretty forgettable. tried too hard to Fast & Furious those movies.

 

i wish it had been sonic.

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

This is actually pretty well known I think, as it is also the highest post-2019 DOM gross and people are waiting for a post-pandemic film to finally topple it (Shang-Chi is on the case  )

 

I've been so out of the loop I didn't know it was until I looked it up.

 

2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Trust me, do not engage with this one. 

 

You don't have to worry about me talking personal Covid opinions here.  I'm here strictly to talk movies.  I have other avenues to do that.  😉

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

despite being The Biggest Movie of the Twenties bad boys 3 is pretty forgettable. tried too hard to Fast & Furious those movies.

 

i wish it had been sonic.

Should've been Tenet. 

[Cmasterclay]

14 minutes ago, CJohn said:

King Richard, Matrix and Dune are all screwed because of the HBO Max dual release. Forget about those. We are looking at maybe something like:

 

King Richard - 11/35

Matrix - 30/65

Dune - 20/45

Matrix has a better chance of doing that opening day. Dune, yeah, I could see it flopping. King Richard is the kind of thing that would open to 20m OW and then get a 5x multiplier, but Max is worse for legs than openings. I think it still does 20m OW weekend but doesn't get the leggy run it otherwise would.

 

Paw Patrol living proof of how bad free streaming kills legs more than openings. 

[Jason]

31 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Fair enough, my bad, sorry. 
 

Just want to add, for myself and my family, the only way we’ll be back in a theatre before the end of the year is if case counts drop and we have a vaccine passport. We were going to movies 1-3 times a month before covid and I’ve only been once since March of 2020. 

 

My family and friends here (very biased sample I'm sure) have also all said we're only going back to the theatre when a vaccine passport system is in place, and case counts are reasonably low.

[WrathOfHan]

Seeing Free Guy a few days ago was my first time at the theater since Old due to life changes and Delta concerns, and wearing a KN95 for over 2 hours was not enjoyable at all (Shoutout to our healthcare workers who have been dealing with this for the entirety of the pandemic). I was fine wearing a cloth mask prior to updated guidelines in Late May, but given how bad COVID is in Florida right now, that's not enough protection for somewhere like a theater. I'm glad there's not much I want to see in September; hopefully cases drop dramatically enough soon.

[lorddemaxus]

Also speaking of Tenet, the movie released a year ago this weekend. Funnily enough, seeing a bunch of people on my twitter feed talking about it (think there were 70mm screenings this weekend). Nice to see people finally accepting it as an incomprehensible, beautiful masterpiece.