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WrathOfHan

Weekend Thread: Candyman 22.37M OW | Free Guy 13.5M, PAW Patrol 6.6M, Jungle Cruise 5M

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I'm not sure how 1.9m previews is disappointing when the pro forecasts were 9-14m as recently as last week.   Sure, presales looked great, but it should still beat the top end of the forecasts pretty easily.  I don't think a lower presale multiplier should be equated to a disappointment; rather it can be used to make the predictions more accurate going forward. 

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46 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I'm not sure how 1.9m previews is disappointing when the pro forecasts were 9-14m as recently as last week.   Sure, presales looked great, but it should still beat the top end of the forecasts pretty easily.  I don't think a lower presale multiplier should be equated to a disappointment; rather it can be used to make the predictions more accurate going forward. 

Fans often have really inflated expectations for box office that don;t sqaure with the more grounded projections.

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4 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Is this 20 pure Friday or including previews? Because if it's the latter, it should narrowly miss $20 mil ($19 mil sounds good to me).

Likely including previews. Typically the trades and reporters like Brandon always lump in previews with Friday #s. Charlie is the only guy I can think of that reports previews and True Friday separately...or at least he used to (Comscore, please come back 😥)

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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

Have a question? Who is Brandon? is he like Gitesh? Also, is Empire City most reliable?

Brandon Katz is an entertainment reporter for Observer and is a pretty active one online at that. Because of his position, he probably has good sources for these early box office results and since Deadline isn't doing their mid-day Friday updates anymore (it's really frustrating Deadline just stopped doing them after Jungle Cruise weekend IIRC), might as well get something for the industry/box office nerds to chew on.

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13 minutes ago, Eric Robitaille said:

Deadline isn't doing their mid-day Friday updates anymore (it's really frustrating Deadline just stopped doing them after Jungle Cruise weekend IIRC)

It’s always a matter of whether the movie is big enough, right? Even in the before times. I don’t know if they have a hard and fast internal rule but anecdotally I think about a 10M true fri/30M+ weekend is where we start getting the mid-fri updates — should easily get one for SC but then probably nothing else until NTTD.

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27 minutes ago, Eric Robitaille said:

Brandon Katz is an entertainment reporter for Observer and is a pretty active one online at that. Because of his position, he probably has good sources for these early box office results and since Deadline isn't doing their mid-day Friday updates anymore (it's really frustrating Deadline just stopped doing them after Jungle Cruise weekend IIRC), might as well get something for the industry/box office nerds to chew on.

 

I see. Thanks! :)

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16 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

It’s always a matter of whether the movie is big enough, right? Even in the before times. I don’t know if they have a hard and fast internal rule but anecdotally I think about a 10M true fri/30M+ weekend is where we start getting the mid-fri updates — should easily get one for SC but then probably nothing else until NTTD.

I mean maybe, but it always felt like Deadline delivered mid-day updates every weekend until the pandemic. I guess 30M+ openers were also more common back then, so maybe that’s the big issue

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