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Weekend Thread: Candyman 22.37M OW | Free Guy 13.5M, PAW Patrol 6.6M, Jungle Cruise 5M

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56 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

 

An 8.4 Fri should lead to a 20+ weekend, so I can only assume you’re seeing a lower Fri?

That would only be 6.3 true Friday. Can’t see anything more than 6 sat and 4 sun

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6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

That would only be 6.3 true Friday. Can’t see anything more than 6 sat and 4 sun

 

6.5m True Friday, but the point probably stands regardless.

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Don't forget...not that early showings get horror movies much revenue, but there are a lot of theaters now on reduced Friday hours (either slightly reduced or significantly reduced)...so, Sat/Sun could be "slightly" better than expected...although it could also be the case that Friday could be even worse and the estimate doesn't take the reduced showings into account...

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16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

That would only be 6.3 true Friday. Can’t see anything more than 6 sat and 4 sun

Wow, going for a brutal Sat there. Opening on the pre-Labor day weekend Don’t Breathe went +21% and Ready or Not +31% (after a Wed open).

Edited by Lokis Legion
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5 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Wow, going for a brutal Sat there. Opening on the pre-Labor day weekend Don’t Breathe went +21% and Ready or Not +31% (after a Wed open).

 

2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

I doubt it goes below a 2.8 true IM even with weak reception. 1.9+6.5*2.8-> 20.1

 

I presume @DAJK is factoring in both fan rush and reception to at least some degree.  But maybe you're right.

 

(standard disclaimer: I suck at forecasting IMs so as always, I'm sitting this out)

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9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

I presume @DAJK is factoring in both fan rush and reception to at least some degree.  But maybe you're right.

 

(standard disclaimer: I suck at forecasting IMs so as always, I'm sitting this out)

It is true that both comps I used are originals, but my suspicion is that DAJK has a little bit too much summer factor in the Sat still. Even if the audience really rejects it and there was some fan rush (though an 8.4 off of 1.9 wouldn’t seem to indicate that) maybe a flat Sat, -35% Sun, 1.9+6.5*2.65->19.1   
 

The 8.4 would be a great OD to begin with though, suspect we’ll come in lower.

Edited by Lokis Legion
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As a huge fan of the original film, I loved this. The ending is also extremely satisfying so I’m surprised to see people compare it unfavourably to other films. 
 

It has a twist I didn’t see coming, at all. I’m surprised I didn’t, but it paid off. Big time. 
 

4/5 

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18 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Do you need to see previous Candyman movies to watch this one? Or is it a separated story?

It lets you know everything you need to know about the first movie in a really creative way. It's (surprisingly so) very much a sequel to that movie.

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27 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Do you need to see previous Candyman movies to watch this one? Or is it a separated story?

For me, there’s one reveal that really paid off having seen the first film. And I didn’t see it coming. 
 

I think anyone could enjoy it though. They elaborate and delve deeper 

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 

I presume @DAJK is factoring in both fan rush and reception to at least some degree.  But maybe you're right.

 

(standard disclaimer: I suck at forecasting IMs so as always, I'm sitting this out)

I also suck at forecasting IM’s too lol so take anything I say with a grain of salt. I just feel like there’s going to be a bit of a fan rush for sure (everyone that I know who wants to see this wants to go either because of Peele, or the 1992 original, and we saw Us being somewhat frontloaded a few years ago). I also am just going by what people on here are saying about WOM quite possibly being awful.

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Honestly not surprised. The RT verified looked a lot better than I expected when I looked at it this morning. On the other hand, it is a mainstream horror seque with some fan rush, so still nothing great. Should leg out to around $50-60 mil.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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Just now, lorddemaxus said:

Honestly not surprised. The RT verified looked a lot better than I expected when I looked at it this morning.

I’m still surprised. Did not think audiences would be satisfied. Same as Us and higher than the C+ for the original 

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Ehh, it makes sense to me. I wasn't in love with it, but it's got a good, solid pace and some solid and creative slasher/gory moments to keep less discerning folks invested.

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That's genuinely surprising. I figured the third act alone would've been enough to give this a C+ or lower, cause oof, it completely face plants there.

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7 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

It’s always a matter of whether the movie is big enough, right? Even in the before times. I don’t know if they have a hard and fast internal rule but anecdotally I think about a 10M true fri/30M+ weekend is where we start getting the mid-fri updates — should easily get one for SC but then probably nothing else until NTTD.

It's honestly contingent on the source of the numbers. Certain studios sometimes deliver midday updates on Friday if a film is doing well enough or over-performing, but in other cases it's usually a matter of someone getting access to comScore numbers and/or getting a tip from someone who has seen rough estimates either from comScore or an off-record studio source.

 

There have been many situations we get studio estimates from Disney or Uni, for example, on Friday but don't report them because they either specify they're unofficial and/or we think it's too early to commit to reporting a number (unless it's uber important, say something like an Avengers movie).

 

TL;DR -- there isn't a specific rhyme or reason, but trades and reporters will take any info they can get. Sometimes it's given freely, sometimes it's just a matter of asking what the studio or a rival studio or an analyst thinks based on the raw data. The only consistency is that there is no consistency. 

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