Weekend Thread: Candyman 22.37M OW | Free Guy 13.5M, PAW Patrol 6.6M, Jungle Cruise 5M

[DAJK]

Free Guy ahead of Candyman yesterday in Canada, but only by a tiny bit. 
 

Using recent comps, Candyman is 91% of Old. Shows both that Free Guy is very strong here, and that Candyman is slightly weaker here (probably equivalent of 14-15M opening).

[ThomasNicole]

29 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

That's a good hold from real Friday no? Most likely softer drop with actuals. Could it do 7M? 

Yeah probably, Universal was expecting 8.4M yesterday and ended up with 9.1M.

 

If they expect 6.8M today can be 7.2-7.4M actuals, let's see.

 

 

 

[Valonqar]

Excellent! Looks like 21-22M rather than 20M.

Edited August 28, 2021 by Valonqar

[titanic2187]

I am happy to see all "meltdown" to JC, FG and Candyman are averted last minute. There were some meltdown in the tracking thread due to poor PS or polarised reaction, but in the end all 3 of them managed to clean up nice, except for TSS, the meltdown run real and harsh.     

[john2000]

38 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I am happy to see all "meltdown" to JC, FG and Candyman are averted last minute. There were some meltdown in the tracking thread due to poor PS or polarised reaction, but in the end all 3 of them managed to clean up nice, except for TSS, the meltdown run real and harsh.     

meltdowns in the forum ?  i am shocked ...shocked i tell you

[Cap]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

meltdowns in the forum ?  i am shocked ...shocked i tell you

Your winnings, sir. 

[EmpireCity]

It was only 3 weeks ago that everyone from media to people on this forum to others were in full freak out mode after The Suicide Squad bombed.  "Everything is going to move to 2022!!"  "Day and Date, PA and straight to streaming for everything!!" "Theatrical is dead!!"  "Delta will shut everything down!" "Shang-Chi is going to bomb and Disney will use it as an excuse to do every movie on PA!!"

 

- Delta is peaking or has peaked and is headed down.  

- Free Guy showed that theatrical exclusive matters and overperforms all expectations

- The Suicide Squad failure is largely traced directly to HBOMax release killing it's theatrical

- Chapek declares Shang-Chi is an "experiment" on if theatrical exclusive vs. PA is the way forward

- Shang-Chi is getting rave reviews and picking up steam for a $60m+ 3 day opening on one of the traditionally worst weekends of the year even prior to COVID.  

- Candyman might hit $22m for the weekend after most of the film media had it in the low to mid teens

 

It's fucking beautiful.  Day and date or PA has proven to be garbage.  Putting movies in theaters with an exclusive window has yet again proven to be the way to make the most money and get the maximum impact for your film.  

 

Can't wait to see how the Fall rewards those who stuck it out and the box office gets back to normal.  

Edited August 28, 2021 by EmpireCity

[Amorphous]

28 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

It was only 3 weeks ago that everyone from media to people on this forum to others were in full freak out mode after The Suicide Squad bombed.  "Everything is going to move to 2022!!"  "Day and Date, PA and straight to streaming for everything!!" "Theatrical is dead!!"  "Delta will shut everything down!" "Shang-Chi is going to bomb and Disney will use it as an excuse to do every movie on PA!!"

 

- Delta is peaking or has peaked and is headed down.  

- Free Guy showed that theatrical exclusive matters and overperforms all expectations

- The Suicide Squad failure is largely traced directly to HBOMax release killing it's theatrical

- Chapek declares Shang-Chi is an "experiment" on if theatrical exclusive vs. PA is the way forward

- Shang-Chi is getting rave reviews and picking up steam for a $60m+ 3 day opening on one of the traditionally worst weekends of the year even prior to COVID.  

- Candyman might hit $22m for the weekend after most of the film media had it in the low to mid teens

 

It's fucking beautiful.  Day and date or PA has proven to be garbage.  Putting movies in theaters with an exclusive window has yet again proven to be the way to make the most money and get the maximum impact for your film.  

 

Can't wait to see how the Fall rewards those who stuck it out and the box office gets back to normal.  

Extremely curious to see how HALLOWEEN KILLS does this year. With Candyman doing so well, I think it's a sure-fire hit. Hopefully Venom moves, but regardless, all things point to a very decent sized opening for a sequel. Marketing should be in full effect soon.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Halloween is a sure-fire hit. It won't hit the heights of 2018's reboot (76m OW) but it can do 50m as it's a big sequel and iconic/established IP franchise. The Venom issue complicates it somewhat (I truly believe they won't end up on same weekend). I think 35m is the floor

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

It was only 3 weeks ago that everyone from media to people on this forum to others were in full freak out mode after The Suicide Squad bombed.  "Everything is going to move to 2022!!"  "Day and Date, PA and straight to streaming for everything!!" "Theatrical is dead!!"  "Delta will shut everything down!" "Shang-Chi is going to bomb and Disney will use it as an excuse to do every movie on PA!!"

 

- Delta is peaking or has peaked and is headed down.  

- Free Guy showed that theatrical exclusive matters and overperforms all expectations

- The Suicide Squad failure is largely traced directly to HBOMax release killing it's theatrical

- Chapek declares Shang-Chi is an "experiment" on if theatrical exclusive vs. PA is the way forward

- Shang-Chi is getting rave reviews and picking up steam for a $60m+ 3 day opening on one of the traditionally worst weekends of the year even prior to COVID.  

- Candyman might hit $22m for the weekend after most of the film media had it in the low to mid teens

 

It's fucking beautiful.  Day and date or PA has proven to be garbage.  Putting movies in theaters with an exclusive window has yet again proven to be the way to make the most money and get the maximum impact for your film.  

 

Can't wait to see how the Fall rewards those who stuck it out and the box office gets back to normal.  

 

Let's not declare it all sunshine and roses...when the virus was at its minimum and theaters were wide open, the domestic box office top 10 has only exceeded $100M once in 2021 (with Black Widow)...everyone's hoping Marvel's normal fan rush helps put Labor Day over that same Top 10 figure for that weekend, but let's not pretend we're suddenly at peak 2019, yeah, box office is great again.

 

At best, the Dom BO subscriber base can support small and midsize movies with the occasional monthly blockbuster drawing some GA...that's about what we've had this summer, and that's about what's worked.  Fall will never be able to support all the big blockbuster budget movies planned to be released.  Spidey has the lock on December and Shang Chi has locked September, but there's only really room for 2 (maybe 3) more big blockbusters to have a chance to not flop with the current market til we can start drawing out $100M+ Top 10 DOM weekends every single weekend...

 

Edited August 29, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

It was only 3 weeks ago that everyone from media to people on this forum to others were in full freak out mode after The Suicide Squad bombed.  "Everything is going to move to 2022!!"  "Day and Date, PA and straight to streaming for everything!!" "Theatrical is dead!!"  "Delta will shut everything down!" "Shang-Chi is going to bomb and Disney will use it as an excuse to do every movie on PA!!"

 

- Delta is peaking or has peaked and is headed down.  

- Free Guy showed that theatrical exclusive matters and overperforms all expectations

- The Suicide Squad failure is largely traced directly to HBOMax release killing it's theatrical

- Chapek declares Shang-Chi is an "experiment" on if theatrical exclusive vs. PA is the way forward

- Shang-Chi is getting rave reviews and picking up steam for a $60m+ 3 day opening on one of the traditionally worst weekends of the year even prior to COVID.  

- Candyman might hit $22m for the weekend after most of the film media had it in the low to mid teens

 

It's fucking beautiful.  Day and date or PA has proven to be garbage.  Putting movies in theaters with an exclusive window has yet again proven to be the way to make the most money and get the maximum impact for your film.  

 

Can't wait to see how the Fall rewards those who stuck it out and the box office gets back to normal.  

I love theaters too but your glee and behavior about all of this has been very strange and demeaning. Self-congratulating yourself while dismissing anyone here who had any genuine concern or worry is a bad image. Universal projected a mid-teens opening which is why media followed. Candyman might have a bad 2nd weekend, we just saw Respect drop 60%, Sept is largely empty. There’s still a lot of questions and real fear about this pandemic. We have yet to reach the finish line 

[Valonqar]

For what is worth, horror has done really well during the pandemic. AQP2 with 47M OW and just shy of 300M WW. The Conjuring The Devil Made Me Do It with 24M OW and over 200M WW (really strong OS all things considered). The Forever Purge and Old legging it out from softer openings. And now Candyman with 22M give or take. Genre least affected by the pandemic it seems.

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Genre least affected by the pandemic it seems.

A particularly young while being non family crowd, maybe ?

 

https://www.thewrap.com/box-office-how-horror-films-conjuring-win-scaring-young-women-104901/

[Valonqar]

7 minutes ago, Barnack said:

A particularly young while being non family crowd, maybe ?

 

https://www.thewrap.com/box-office-how-horror-films-conjuring-win-scaring-young-women-104901/

 

Great article. Though speaking of families, Free Guy draws families, no? As does Jungle cruise. And who could forget Tom&Jerry breakout? Puzzling!

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The theater experience is crucial to horror and it's the one genre that can succeed off concept or being original IP alone. 

[dxmatrixdt]

the ring came off my pudding can.  

[EmpireCity]

5 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Let's not declare it all sunshine and roses...when the virus was at its minimum and theaters were wide open, the domestic box office top 10 has only exceeded $100M once in 2021 (with Black Widow)...everyone's hoping Marvel's normal fan rush helps put Labor Day over that same Top 10 figure for that weekend, but let's not pretend we're suddenly at peak 2019, yeah, box office is great again.

 

At best, the Dom BO subscriber base can support small and midsize movies with the occasional monthly blockbuster drawing some GA...that's about what we've had this summer, and that's about what's worked.  Fall will never be able to support all the big blockbuster budget movies planned to be released.  Spidey has the lock on December and Shang Chi has locked September, but there's only really room for 2 (maybe 3) more big blockbusters to have a chance to not flop with the current market til we can start drawing out $100M+ Top 10 DOM weekends every single weekend...

 

 

I completely disagree with this and don't see where the justification for saying it comes from.  If anything, the market is desperate for blockbusters and feeding it more will grow it.  

 

The reason we have only had 1 weekend where the box office top 10 exceeded $100m is because only 1 weekend had enough quality mainstream product to make that happen.  If anything, that weekend proves the point that the market is desperate for more blockbuster content.  

 

 

Edited August 29, 2021 by EmpireCity

[EmpireCity]

5 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I love theaters too but your glee and behavior about all of this has been very strange and demeaning. Self-congratulating yourself while dismissing anyone here who had any genuine concern or worry is a bad image. Universal projected a mid-teens opening which is why media followed. Candyman might have a bad 2nd weekend, we just saw Respect drop 60%, Sept is largely empty. There’s still a lot of questions and real fear about this pandemic. We have yet to reach the finish line 

 

I haven't dismissed concern or worry, I have dismissed people that have moved from that to absolutes declaring theatrical dead or broken forever.  

 

I've largely been positive about what the future holds, but for some reason that translates to "very strange and demeaning".  

 

Part of where we are is people are still comfortable wallowing in the negative.  That hast to stop and isn't healthy on any level.  

[lorddemaxus]

7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

That hast to stop and isn't healthy on any level.  

I don't think pretending like the future is all rainbows and sunshines is healthy either.

[SchumacherFTW]

13 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I completely disagree with this and don't see where the justification for saying it comes from.  If anything, the market is desperate for blockbusters and feeding it more will grow it.  

 

The reason we have only had 1 weekend where the box office top 10 exceeded $100m is because only 1 weekend had enough quality mainstream product to make that happen.  If anything, that weekend proves the point that the market is desperate for more blockbuster content.  

 

 

This isn't the 90s where most movies have legs, you need that new hotness to get bums on seats on the regular

Edited August 29, 2021 by SchumacherFTW