Weekend Thread: Candyman 22.37M OW | Free Guy 13.5M, PAW Patrol 6.6M, Jungle Cruise 5M

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

37 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I haven't dismissed concern or worry, I have dismissed people that have moved from that to absolutes declaring theatrical dead or broken forever.  

 

I've largely been positive about what the future holds, but for some reason that translates to "very strange and demeaning".  

 

Part of where we are is people are still comfortable wallowing in the negative.  That hast to stop and isn't healthy on any level.  

It’s pretty clear theatrical will never die. But we’re still on the path to recovery. I’m mostly positive about the future as well but there’s still some concerns here in the present. Like I said, there’s been some steep drops, very inconsistent scheduling (Oct looks overcrowded). I posted earlier how a theater here is shutting down after over 30 years because they can’t survive September. Feels like every time a new movie opens or while at CinemaCon, you call everything a “sure fire hit” lol. Seems a bit overzealous still. I haven’t noticed anything here out of the ordinary in regards to wallowing. 
 

I believe we truly won’t get a better idea of the marketplace until Oct/Nov. It does look promising but there’s still anxieties. I’m really personally fearful for studio comedies and mid-budget dramas/originals. Even pre-pandemic, the worry over the mid-budget counter programming was a hot topic. Respect tanking and immediately being shifted to VOD adds fuel to the fire. Last Duel’s likely flopping is also scary. And Dune is a major question mark.

Edited August 29, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[ThomasNicole]

16 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It’s pretty clear theatrical will never die. But we’re still on the path to recovery. I’m mostly positive about the future as well but there’s still some concerns here in the present. Like I said, there’s been some steep drops, very inconsistent scheduling (Oct looks overcrowded). I posted earlier how a theater here is shutting down after over 30 years because they can’t survive September. Feels like every time a new movie opens or while at CinemaCon, you call everything a “sure fire hit” lol. Seems a bit overzealous still. I haven’t noticed anything here out of the ordinary in regards to wallowing. 
 

I believe we truly won’t get a better idea of the marketplace until Oct/Nov. It does look promising but there’s still anxieties. I’m really personally fearful for studio comedies and mid-budget dramas/originals. Even pre-pandemic, the worry over the mid-budget counter programming was a hot topic. Respect tanking and immediately being shifted to VOD adds fuel to the fire. Last Duel’s likely flopping is also scary. And Dune is a major question mark.

Couldn´t agreed more, there´s a clear difference in ´´looks promising´´ to ´´everything is fine´´.

 

We´re still in the middle of a pandemic, we are in a better place than 2020 but we aren´t good like April-July 2021 either, things are still very volatile which brings reasonable concerns. Another variant can surge in the next months and people aren´t doing their best to avoid that, which also brings concerns. And of course, unlike US and few other countries, lots of places still doesn´t even have enough vaccines to fight COVID, and from what we know blockbusters heavily depends on healthy overseas markets, which right now isn´t the case.

 

I´m positive, like all pandemics this one will end, and i´m sure things are good enough to at least releasing most of the movies and keep the industry going forward, but i´m not blind either. We´re still celebrating everytime a movie cross $ 100M domestic [and even that doesn´t happen that much], this alone proof how far from fine we are.

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I don't think pretending like the future is all rainbows and sunshines is healthy either.

 

I'll keep my position where Delta and COVID eventually (and much sooner than later) go away on a pandemic level and theatrical business is strong again and others can hold onto their gloom and doom and think this will be around forever and theaters are dead.

 

We'll see who turns out to be correct.  I'll guarantee you that it's me.  

[EmpireCity]

42 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

It’s pretty clear theatrical will never die. But we’re still on the path to recovery. I’m mostly positive about the future as well but there’s still some concerns here in the present. Like I said, there’s been some steep drops, very inconsistent scheduling (Oct looks overcrowded). I posted earlier how a theater here is shutting down after over 30 years because they can’t survive September. Feels like every time a new movie opens or while at CinemaCon, you call everything a “sure fire hit” lol. Seems a bit overzealous still. I haven’t noticed anything here out of the ordinary in regards to wallowing. 
 

I believe we truly won’t get a better idea of the marketplace until Oct/Nov. It does look promising but there’s still anxieties. I’m really personally fearful for studio comedies and mid-budget dramas/originals. Even pre-pandemic, the worry over the mid-budget counter programming was a hot topic. Respect tanking and immediately being shifted to VOD adds fuel to the fire. Last Duel’s likely flopping is also scary. And Dune is a major question mark.

 

See, this is the actual hyperbole and you even set it up as phony hyperbole with the "feels like" phrasing.  

 

I don't think every time a new movie opens or while at CinemaCon I called "everything" a "sure fire hit".  

 

You're making shit up to support your overly negative viewpoint.  Also, feel free to take what I actually said will be a hit and let's match it up down the road and see what my track record is.  

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I'll keep my position where Delta and COVID eventually (and much sooner than later) go away on a pandemic level and theatrical business is strong again and others can hold onto their gloom and doom and think this will be around forever and theaters are dead.

 

We'll see who turns out to be correct.  I'll guarantee you that it's me.  

I know theaters aren't gonna die. Literally been saying that since the pandemic started, long before you did. You think it's bad now, you should've seen this place last year (a point when prominent members of this forum were even arguing how the death of cinemas is a good thing). My point is, this just feels like you're trying to prove that you're correct instead of having an actual discussion. I don't think the future of theatrical looks like this perfect utopia like you're making it out to be either.

[EmpireCity]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

I know theaters aren't gonna die. Literally been saying that since the pandemic started, long before you did. You think it's bad now, you should've seen this place last year (a point when prominent members of this forum were even arguing how the death of cinemas is a good thing). My point is, this just feels like you're trying to prove that you're correct instead of having an actual discussion. I don't think the future of theatrical looks like this perfect utopia like you're making it out to be either.

 

Again, something I haven't said.  

 

Maybe the problem is lack of reading comprehension coupled with taking positive and turning it into "utopia"?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

See, this is the actual hyperbole and you even set it up as phony hyperbole with the "feels like" phrasing.  

 

I don't think every time a new movie opens or while at CinemaCon I called "everything" a "sure fire hit".  

 

You're making shit up to support your overly negative viewpoint.  Also, feel free to take what I actually said will be a hit and let's match it up down the road and see what my track record is.  

“Overly negative viewpoint”? I said theaters will be fine in future lol. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Oh boy, superficial drama!

 

On a side note, did you know that in Turkey (where I live currently), next Friday will see the release of not only Shang-Chi, but also Luca and Malignant? 

[EmpireCity]

16 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

“Overly negative viewpoint”? I said theaters will be fine in future lol. 

 

Again, feel free to track what I have said and what my actual predictions have been.  Would love love love for you to revisit this when they are released and see how it went.  

[EmpireCity]

13 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Universal have updated Candyman’s Saturday to $6,830,000 -24.9%

 

They are way off on this.  Like at least $500k off if not more.  

Edited August 29, 2021 by EmpireCity

[DAJK]

13 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

They are way off on this.  Like at least $1m off if not more.  

Too high or low?

[EmpireCity]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Too high or low?

 

Too low, but maybe not quite a million, hard to tell at this time of night.  At least $500k off though

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I predicted 26m for Candyman last year. It’ll do 22-23m-ish, yeah? Not too shabby. I am more curious in the holds next week

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I'll keep my position where Delta and COVID eventually (and much sooner than later) go away on a pandemic level and theatrical business is strong again and others can hold onto their gloom and doom and think this will be around forever and theaters are dead.

 

We'll see who turns out to be correct.  I'll guarantee you that it's me.  

So there is no middle ground? Very few thinks the first IMO

[Jamiem]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 

I'll keep my position where Delta and COVID eventually (and much sooner than later) go away on a pandemic level and theatrical business is strong again and others can hold onto their gloom and doom and think this will be around forever and theaters are dead.

 

We'll see who turns out to be correct.  I'll guarantee you that it's me.  

I would say you are missing 95% of the people on this forum that are in between these two view points though, which is that theatrical will come back it just won't be as strong as it was in 2019. 

 

Anyway we will find out in 2022 for sure if this years numbers are lack of product, as 2022 has a slate of films that rivals 2018 and 2019 at the very in terms of blockbusters. 

Edited August 29, 2021 by Jamiem

[Krissykins]

29 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Too low, but maybe not quite a million, hard to tell at this time of night.  At least $500k off though

Thanks again for providing these Candyman goodies! Could be increasing from its true Friday! 

 

14 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I predicted 26m for Candyman last year. It’ll do 22-23m-ish, yeah? Not too shabby. I am more curious in the holds next week

It’ll be hard because a Marvel film opens taking all of the PLF’s and Candyman is making more than a quarter of its gross from them (as per Deadline). Hopefully the 4 day weekend can soften it a bit. I’d expect 60%+ though. 

Edited August 29, 2021 by Krissykins

[CJohn]

The main problem I see right now is depth in the top 10. The 100M total weekend was carried by a 80M OW from BW. You need more movies making decent money overall for this to be sustainable in the long run.

[EmpireCity]

I think Candyman is hitting at least $7.5m for Saturday.  I can say for sure it's blowing right past that earlier estimate from Universal.

 

It likely is at $16.5m+ heading into Sunday and should get to at least $22m for the weekend.  

[Legion Again]

The 2021 slate is a lot of used to be 2020 movies, and 2020 looked like it could be the worst year of the century iirc, so… even if we were at 100%, it’s not like we’d have a 2019-style bunch-of-400M-grosser romp. BW without PA in same conditions you’ve got like 270+, without any covid what, 340? F9 basically matched H&S, AQP2 had good retention from the original, Free Guy is making nearly as much as you’d expect with no covid…    
 

Gotta wait and see how Oct goes of course but the weekends have been paltry in large part because of paltry product and streaming releases.

[EmpireCity]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The main problem I see right now is depth in the top 10. The 100M total weekend was carried by a 80M OW from BW. You need more movies making decent money overall for this to be sustainable in the long run.

 

Absolutely, and that is why I don't buy the "October is too crowded talk".  In a traditional year, sure, but that is because there would be a lot of films holding over that take up space from new openers.  This year there will be a lot of real estate available to hold all of those films.  

 

Realistically even an 8-10 screen theater will be able to run a healthy schedule and bigger multi-plexes will be ready to take everything.