SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

[Madhuvan]

See , I am fine with these numbers but I genuinely don't know if this will help in the narrative of keeping rest of the big movies in 2021.

Jungle Cruise and Free Guys did good and still Paramount moved their slate and Sony is thinking same with Venom and NW.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, MrPink said:

Yeah I can't believe 8.8m is causing doom posting. Literally yesterday I was hoping for just above 8m because I thought that would be enough to get it to around 60m 3-day. 

 

Only talk of 9-9.5m seems to have caused some kind of panic. Next time @charlie Jatinder, whatever you're thinking, adjust it down 10% so we can avoid the shenanigans.

This is why I adjusted my comps down to 8.7M.

 

I was off by 100k  

[Inceptionzq]

6 minutes ago, Menor said:

How did this underperform tracking? Consensus of the tracking thread was high 8s to low 9s. It landed within that range. 

Seems like some like to just look at the higher numbers and roll with that

[Borobudur]

I am thinking 75m opening 3 days. I find it hard to believe this to have far worse IM when sunday is a 2nd saturday (typical marvel day) and the character is relatively unknown even by marvel standard. At least BP appeared in CW and CM has that teaser at the end of IW. SC was never mentioned or appeared in anyway. 

[YM!]

A 70m four day, plus strong WOM and no true competition until NTTD in about six weeks, Shang-Chi should cruise by over 200m.

 

However, I am a bit disappointed though in line with our tracking, Shang-Chi went under the alluring range of 9-9.5m. Although, an 80m four day would make me personally more confident, I think the main focus will be on the legs.

Edited September 3, 2021 by YourMother the Edgelord
Too much doomscrolling.

[john2000]

Just now, Madhuvan said:

See , I am fine with these numbers but I genuinely don't know if this will help in the narrative of keeping rest of the big movies in 2021.

Jungle Cruise and Free Guys did good and still Paramount moved their slate and Sony is thinking same with Venom and NW.

paramount or sony dont have that many big movies on their slate in general thats what makes them all that much risk averse, disney can take a hit (not that i believe that it will take much of a hit anyways)

[wildphantom]

I see this being well on track for $70 million. Amazing word of mouth, no competition. Families will come out in droves tomorrow and Sunday as it’s not available at home. 

 

People need to chill. We might well be surprised at the Friday multiplier yet. Plus nobody would be shocked if the east coast Thursday previews were less than what they would have been without Ida. Let the weekend play out as there are some significant variables to consider here. 

[filmlover]

The only question in terms of release dates now is if these numbers will do anything about clearing up the October 15 logjam a bit. Venom really should've stayed on September 24 (and it's probably too late to move it back now since its promo plans will need to be finalized soon).

[elcaballero]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

wait, do people seriously think SC opening could bring the hybrid back and delay NWH?  thought we were just joking about 8.8M being a flop. It's a very solid preview. 

We choose the higher numbers so we can be disappointed when it misses estimates. 😄

[XO21]

it wouldn't be BOT without some good meltdowns for previews #s.

[Madhuvan]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

A 70m four day, plus strong WOM and no true competition until NTTD in about six weeks, Shang-Chi should cruise by over 200m.

 

However, I am a bit disappointed though in line with our tracking, Shang-Chi went under 9m and I do worry about the fate of NWH, Eternals and Venom 2 as well as other probable hits like Sing 2, WSS, and Encanto releasing this year. NTTD probably can’t move anyways and I think Halloween can take the risks but an 80m four day would make me personally much more confident that stuff won’t be delayed to 2022. However, instead of getting some more instantly gratifying, I think the main focus will be on the legs.

well put. Exactly my thoughts on this. Shang-Chi is doing good for itself but idk how other Studios will feel , they are probably not gonna wait to see legs which I think will be really good considering the reception 

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

there is no franchise war here. lemme list it clearly.

 

Tracking numbers are by tracking agencies which offer paid services for telling how much a film is gonna open. 

 

 

No need to be patronising. You’re missing my point anyway. 

[elcaballero]

2 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I see this being well on track for $70 million. Amazing word of mouth, no competition. Families will come out in droves tomorrow and Sunday as it’s not available at home. 

 

People need to chill. We might well be surprised at the Friday multiplier yet. Plus nobody would be shocked if the east coast Thursday previews were less than what they would have been without Ida. Let the weekend play out as there are some significant variables to consider here. 

Totally forgot about Ida as a variable here. Kinda funny how much the perception can be changed by $200k.

[MrPink]

As someone mentioned before, no studio is gonna be disappointed by Shang Chi hitting 200m domestically. They're probably quite happy if that happens.

 

The bigger issue is and remains the overseas gross. 

[Nerfy]

Never forget people here melted down over Infinity War's preview numbers... then it went on to break the OW record by 10 mil. 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

A 70m four day, plus strong WOM and no true competition until NTTD in about six weeks, Shang-Chi should cruise by over 200m.

 

However, I am a bit disappointed though in line with our tracking, Shang-Chi went under 9m and I do worry about the fate of NWH, Eternals and Venom 2 as well as other probable hits like Sing 2, WSS, and Encanto releasing this year. NTTD probably can’t move anyways and I think Halloween can take the risks but an 80m four day would make me personally much more confident that stuff won’t be delayed to 2022. However, instead of getting some more instantly gratifying, I think the main focus will be on the legs.

Under $9m by 2.23%    That's disappointing?

 

Again, looking at past internal multiplers and a holiday Monday SC has a greater chance of hitting $70 for 3 days than  4 days

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, elcaballero said:

We choose the higher numbers so we can be disappointed when it misses estimates. 😄

 

[John Marston]

Solid number. I expect some frontloading though 

[Eric Atreides]

7 minutes ago, MrPink said:

Yeah I can't believe 8.8m is causing doom posting. Literally yesterday I was hoping for just above 8m because I thought that would be enough to get it to around 60m 3-day. 

 

Only talk of 9-9.5m seems to have caused some kind of panic. Next time @charlie Jatinder, whatever you're thinking, adjust it down 10% so we can avoid the shenanigans.

Honestly I feel like a lot of folks here just want to have a meltdown just because. I don't know if it's just unrealistic expectations or being largely pessimistic in their lives or just wanting to troll, but I honestly think if Shang-Chi did like 12M in previews, there would still be folks talking about how it's a disappointment and studios would delay everything again.

[filmlover]

Shang-Chi might be able to hold onto the PLF/IMAX auditoriums for over a month until Bond comes out which should help it with staying power. Though we probably shouldn't rule out the chance Ben Platt's goofy wig gets a surprise PLF announcement at the last minute.