SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

[wildphantom]

What some don’t seem to get is that we’re never going to get back to normal if literally nothing gets released for six months. 
Things will only get back to ‘normal’ levels with a steady stream of normality, where consumer confidence builds and builds. There is no magic switch. 
 

some of these huge movies this fall are not going to do what they might have done. But they sure as hell won’t do what they might have done next year either if everything comes to a stand still. 
 

Studios are going to get lesser money with these for a bit. But they’ll stand to make more from their subsequent slate by using these to steer confidence in the right direction. 

[filmlover]

FWIW the theater where I'm seeing it at in PLF tomorrow is already filling up for every show tonight looking at sales so we probably shouldn't underestimate a possible late surge that puts it on the higher end of what it could make.

 

No matter what though, the fact it's looking at the very least the third biggest opening (and possibly the second depending on if the 4-day can go over $70M) of the pandemic era is a pretty strong achievement given the handicapped standards that have been set since theatrical movies began their return.

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

can people explain to me why free guy which had a budget of  125 mill will finish with 350 mill or so with china and it is considered as a success( which it is) but IF shang manages 400-420 mill WITHOUT china  it will be considered a flop ? the multi in relation to the budget will be 2,8 from both and one of then (shang )wont have china (for now).

 

Expectations are, and have to be, different.  MCU's are the home run hitters of the Disney line up right now.  Like Michael Phelps in his prime, they are never supposed to be losers b/c they support the whole Disney theatrical base...

 

Just like the DC supers do for WB...which is why The Suicide Squad was such a big flop for them and got all the bad press...

 

Some premier film doesn't come in with the "insta-hit" pedigree nor pressure...

[ThomasNicole]

Now, being reasonable...

 

Reception for this movie is being incredible (99% verified audience score with 4.8/5 average), which will help WOM during this weekend. And obviously, this is theatrical only too.

 

Presales so far indicates 20M true friday, could be bigger with some nice walkups but let's wait before counting on that.

 

I even gonna count on a saturday drop to be "pessimistic" and a somewhat bad sunday drop even if historically it should be very small, so:

 

8.8M previews

20M friday 

19M saturday (-5%)

15M sunday (-21%)

 

We still gonna get 62.8M OW, factoring presales will be onpoint for friday with no great walkups, a saturday drop despite the incredible WOM, and a bad sunday drop despite Monday being a Holiday. So +70M 4 day being extremelly pessimistic when tracking was saying 45-50M, this will be received as a huge win for theaters so please let's celebrate, this is exactly what we need in the middle of such strong sense of fear in the industry.

 

And of course from what we know this can easily have some good walkups on friday, stay flat or bump a bit on saturday and have an amazing sunday drop bringing OW to +70M 3 day (+80M labor day), which is even better.

[MrPink]

Fuck it, let's go back to Patty Jenkins talk 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

FWIW the theater where I'm seeing it at in PLF tomorrow is already filling up for every show tonight looking at sales so we probably shouldn't underestimate a possible late surge that puts it on the higher end of what it could make.

 

No matter what though, the fact it's looking at the very least the third biggest opening (and possibly the second depending on if the 4-day can go over $70M) of the pandemic era is a pretty strong achievement given the handicapped standards that have been set since theatrical movies began their return.

 

Ummm, that's not how it works:)...you can't compare the 4 day open to the 3 day open:)...

 

So, $70.1M is the goal for the 3 day to get into 2nd place for the year's opens...

[john2000]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Expectations are, and have to be, different.  MCU's are the home run hitters of the Disney line up right now.  Like Michael Phelps in his prime, they are never supposed to be losers b/c they support the whole Disney theatrical base...

 

Just like the DC supers do for WB...which is why The Suicide Squad was such a big flop for them and got all the bad press...

 

Some premier film doesn't come in with the "insta-hit" pedigree nor pressure...

1) suicide squad had a budget of 185 mill if the budget was 85 we would be talking different ..2) a 400-420 mill without china that is ,is in the range of antman-doctor strange (without china ) which is 400-520 in other words a 420 mill for shang without china is very very normal for an mcu movie

[Porthos]

Wait... Are people actually upset with an OBJECTIVELY FANTASTIC 8.8m Thr???

 

They're not memeing, are they?

 

Please tell me folks are memeing as I'm not going to go back and read.

 

...

 

I blame @Lokis Legion, personally. 

 

NB:
 

I ain't just sayin' this coz I predicted it almost exactly:

 

14 hours ago, Porthos said:

Haven't seen much else of late reporting, but I think I'll stick with 8.9m +/- .4m,  Large-ish range, but enough uncertainty with fallout from weather plus places over and under indexing that I'll stick with that for now.

 

Either way, it's gonna be a great preview total, IMO.  Unless Sacramento is waaaaaaaaaaay out of sync and over-performing heavily.

 

*pauses*

 

Okay, maybe a little bit. 

[grey ghost]

Only 10 million under F9's 3-day is pretty good considering delta, Ida and the last superhero movie made ~26 m OW.

 

This movie had an uphill battle. 3rd biggest OW since Bad Boys 4 Life is pretty impressive.

[YM!]

Anyways, SC’s opening is an absolute win for theaters. I am curious on how the October slate will be gross wise. Dune is primed for the HBO Max $30m special, but I’m confident NTTD does around 60m-70m opening as well as both Venom 2 and Halloween in the 45-55m range each.

[EmpireCity]

11 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Personally I think they should PA everything till things get better. This has nothing to do with SC numbers but it gives consumers (like me) more options and gives them another revenue stream. 
 

People who want to go to the theatre are going anyways and people like me who want to see the movie and who may not be comfortable going to a theatre have the option to pay the PA fee and watch at home.

 

I’m not looking to argue with people about this, it’s just my opinion. 

 

But you could just.... wait.... which is the point with PA.  

[cax16]

8 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

But you could just.... wait.... which is the point with PA.  

As I said I’m not going to argue with anyone, especially you, I know your feelings on this and I respect that. I’m just stating my opinion.

 

I imagine there’s other people who feel the same way as me and would of gladly paid the PA fee. And it wouldn’t of changed the opening weekend much as we saw from BW.

Edited September 3, 2021 by cax16

[grey ghost]

Now the race for 200m DOM begins.

 

Excellent WOM and no competition or PA...Poor legs would shock just about everyone.

 

 

[Krissykins]

11 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Only 10 million under F9's 3-day is pretty good considering delta, Ida and the last superhero movie made ~26 m OW.

 

This movie had an uphill battle. 3rd biggest OW since Bad Boys 4 Life is pretty impressive.

It did???

 

The opening is going to be great and a nice booster for the box office. 

But it has no competition, piracy or at-home option. It has great reviews. It also didn’t have repeated delays. How has Shang-Chi had an uphill battle compared to any other films this summer? 

 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Krissykins

[filmlover]

15 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Personally I think they should PA everything till things get better. This has nothing to do with SC numbers but it gives consumers (like me) more options and gives them another revenue stream. 
 

People who want to go to the theatre are going anyways and people like me who want to see the movie and who may not be comfortable going to a theatre have the option to pay the PA fee and watch at home.

 

I’m not looking to argue with people about this, it’s just my opinion. 

After the Scarlett lawsuit, I doubt they'll be doing hybrid PA with anymore live-action movies. Animated ones like Encanto, yeah sure I guess, animated movies are the ones that have been the easiest to change their release plans throughout the pandemic it seems (most likely because they don't have the same kinds of contracts that would need to be rearranged).

[Cmasterclay]

53 minutes ago, Menor said:

How did this underperform tracking? Consensus of the tracking thread was high 8s to low 9s. It landed within that range. 

You do amazing work so I won't argue with you or doompost, especially when we are talking about such a small, statistically insignificant difference, but outside Porthos and Inception it was implied to be over 9 by all the others. It's only a matter of a few hundred thousand, so it doesn't matter and probably comes out in the wash with the Ida stuff, so who cares and let's see how today goes. Studios are going to make their decisions independent at this point anyway, I'm convinced.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

You do amazing work so I won't argue with you or doompost, especially when we are talking about such a small, statistically insignificant difference, but outside Porthos and Inception it was implied to be over 9 by all the others. It's only a matter of a few hundred thousand, so it doesn't matter and probably comes out in the wash with the Ida stuff, so who cares and let's see how today goes. Studios are going to make their decisions independent at this point anyway, I'm convinced.

8.7M was my prediction based on metro overindexing  

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It did???

 

The opening is going to be great and a nice booster for the box office. 

But it has no competition, piracy or at-home option. It has great reviews. It also didn’t have repeated delays. How has Shang-Chi had an uphill battle compared to any other films this summer? 

 

I would say compared to F9, it does. F9 had a much better virus situation and was also a theatrical exclusive, though it had much less from Canada so some of that evens out. 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

16 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Personally I think they should PA everything till things get better. This has nothing to do with SC numbers but it gives consumers (like me) more options and gives them another revenue stream. 
 

People who want to go to the theatre are going anyways and people like me who want to see the movie and who may not be comfortable going to a theatre have the option to pay the PA fee and watch at home.

 

I’m not looking to argue with people about this, it’s just my opinion. 

 

Disney execs are probably looking at two variables here.

 

1) Do you want to piss off Feige to the point where he might walk like he almost did in 2015 due to not seeing eye to eye with Perlmutter? Feige is the biggest and hottest name in Hollywood. Disney stock would take a hit if he walks away without a transition and a successor. Marvel movies would likely suffer without his guidance as well. We have to remember Feige is big on the theatrical experience, supposedly wanted Black Widow to be theatrical only, and supposedly was pissed at his bosses because of the ScarJo situation.

 

2) How many people will go to the high seas if they do Option A (theatrical only) vs how many people will go to the high seas if they do Option B (hybrid release)? What's the opportunity cost and the money that each option can cost them and bring them. Option B allows for 4K pristine copies to be available on the web the day of release. A lot of people, including all of China, will be watching a perfect copy of the product for free. If they can't get release dates in China then it may also affect their decisions.

 

Not trying to argue, but looking at it from a business standpoint those are the two outstanding points that Chapek, Bergman, and Kareem Daniel need to look at.

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

8.7M was my prediction based on metro overindexing  

Missed that, thought your comps were at around 10. Sorry bud!