SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

[Ronin46]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadline was almost on the dot for BW(they were tad over). I think they wont be that far off here as well based on data seen so far. 

 

Data is pointing to 16M today? 

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

https://deadline.com/2021/09/shang-chi-opening-weekend-box-office-1234826987/

 

 

So, $8.8M Thurs

$16.2M True Friday

And what, $19.4M Sat (+ 20%) and $15.6M Sun (-20%)?

 

Is that Deadline's guess?

 

[TwoMisfits]

Important data from deadline...

 

"Exhibition industry analytics corp EntTelligence reports that the early audience occupancy currently for Shang-Chi leans 69% male, 31% female. Non-family is 78% while family groups are 14% and teen groups 8%. Any studio that trailered on Shang-Chi last night per EntTelligence reached over 600K impressions. The highest ticket prices coming in were from LA, NY, and SF at $15.30, $17.30, and $16.03 respectively."

 

That's an unbelievable male skew for a super, even if opening night and even for Marvel...

 

EDIT TO ADD: Not helping family numbers for decision makers - most school systems are off today (they take a 4 day weekend - why, I have no idea), and this isn't showing a big draw yet...

Edited September 3, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[MrPink]

Wouldn't love a 25m OD coming off an 8.8m previews.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Data is pointing to 16M today? 

70% of BW on MTC1 according to tracking thread, which would be $ 18.4M.

 

But MTC2 would probably pushing this up a bit if it follows last night, so maybe 19M so far.

 

But it doesn't matter much for now, it's very early, sales yesterday picked up after evening. And also if it gets great walkups it will be after evening too. Like Deadline said, it could go much higher than what they say.

 

[Cmasterclay]

Would be bad. Would like to chalk it up to just Deadline but if trackers saying it...

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

Wouldn't love a 25m OD coming off an 8.8m previews.

It would be very bad, not the number itself (which probably would lead to 55M 3-day and +60 for the Holiday), but the pattern would be terrible.

 

It's a very bad preview-OD multi. And 55M OW would be a tepid 6.25x, very close to BW despite being theatrical exclusive,getting a way softer sunday drop, being a new character movie and having way better audience reception. To me that's unbeliveable, i think they're just lowballing to a worst scenario to avoid a BW situation where they are reasonable and the numbers keep dropping during the weekend.

[Ronin46]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

70% of BW on MTC1 according to tracking thread, which would be $ 18.4M.

 

But MTC2 would probably pushing this up a bit if it follows last night, so maybe 19M so far.

 

But it doesn't matter much for now, it's very early, sales yesterday picked up after evening. And also if it gets great walkups it will be after evening too. Like Deadline said, it could go much higher than what they say.

 

 

I thought 9M previews and 80M for the 4day yesterday. The data seems to be around that I think. The 200k or so perhaps lost for previews due to Ida and cancellations etc should just push things a little higher on the other days.   

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

70% of BW on MTC1 according to tracking thread, which would be $ 18.4M.

 

But MTC2 would probably pushing this up a bit if it follows last night, so maybe 19M so far.

 

But it doesn't matter much for now, it's very early, sales yesterday picked up after evening. And also if it gets great walkups it will be after evening too. Like Deadline said, it could go much higher than what they say.

 

No. I was predicting it will hit 70% with better walkups(I was way off with my expectations of 20m friday as well). I looked back at BW update and at 1130AM PST(tad more than an hour before my SC update), it was at those numbers. MTC2 is way lower. @Menor can do comps with F9/BW. 

 

Deadline has sources with comscore data. Most of the evening shows are driven by PS which I can see from MTC sales. I dont think its going to be dramatically different from deadline but hope I am wrong. 

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

It would be very bad, not the number itself (which probably would lead to 55M 3-day and +60 for the Holiday), but the pattern would be terrible.

 

It's a very bad preview-OD multi. And 55M OW would be a tepid 6.25x, very close to BW despite being theatrical exclusive,getting a way softer sunday drop, being a new character movie and having way better audience reception. To me that's unbeliveable, i think they're just lowballing to a worst scenario to avoid a BW situation where they are reasonable and the numbers keep dropping during the weekend.

 

Agree wholeheartedly. Hope it's just a big lowball.

[Cmasterclay]

Edit: Yeesh.

Edited September 3, 2021 by Cmasterclay

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Data is pointing to 16M today? 

I am seeing trends. Look at my post upwards. I cannot predict exact friday number this early. I dont have access to comscore. But deadline has been quite accurate with friday projections(which being awful for overall weekend. They said 93m OW for BW !!! ). So I will not discount their friday projection for sure. We are not in an era of insane walkups that can cause huge divergence. 

 

But I can give a better projection closer to 8PM PST. This will skew MTC big time as well. 

[YM!]

Ouch at 25m Friday plus previews if true as that’s potentially more frontloaded than BW and those demographics aren’t encouraging much for hopes of strong walkups.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

No. I was predicting it will hit 70% with better walkups(I was way off with my expectations of 20m friday as well). I looked back at BW update and at 1130AM PST(tad more than an hour before my SC update), it was at those numbers. MTC2 is way lower. @Menor can do comps with F9/BW. 

 

Deadline has sources with comscore data. Most of the evening shows are driven by PS which I can see from MTC sales. I dont think its going to be dramatically different from deadline but hope I am wrong. 

Well if it turns out like that it will be shit then, i doubt it will reach their own 60M 3-day if Friday is just 16M. The OW itself will be good enough i guess but way lower than pretty much everyone here expect, this is not a good time for this to happen, fingers crossed for the best.

[poweranimals]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Ouch at 25m Friday plus previews if true as that’s potentially more frontloaded than BW and those demographics aren’t encouraging much for hopes of strong walkups.

Given the better reception and the lack of PA, what would even cause that?

[Ronin46]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am seeing trends. Look at my post upwards. I cannot predict exact friday number this early. I dont have access to comscore. But deadline has been quite accurate with friday projections(which being awful for overall weekend. They said 93m OW for BW !!! ). So I will not discount their friday projection for sure. We are not in an era of insane walkups that can cause huge divergence. 

 

But I can give a better projection closer to 8PM PST. This will skew MTC big time as well. 

 

Thanks for that and appreciate all your contributions.

 

Here is deadlines CANDYMAN Friday am update last week

 

Friday AM Update: Universal/MGM/Monkeypaw’s reimagination of the cult classic horror movie Candyman posted $1.9 million on Thursday from 2750 theaters off shows that began at 7 p.m. The pic, in a recent rare feat for horror pics, has an 86% certified fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes.

Interestingly enough, another critically acclaimed horror release that played the late August period in 2016 off an 88% certified fresh RT, Don’t Breathe, turned into a $26.4M opening and ultimate $89.2M final domestic, a nice sleeper to tee off the fall. Candyman‘s Thursday night beats that of Don’t Breathe, which was $1.875M.

Candyman is set to gross in the mid-teens, though there’s the feeling that this Jordan Peele-produced and coscripted movie with director Nia DaCosta can overperform, and after Free Guy‘s hold, it’s another vibrant sign for a box office that’s looking to return to some normalcy. Males between ages 17-34 are the prime demo here, and, well, that’s who’s been unafraid to head to the cinema during the pandemic.

 

Midteens and went onto be 22. 

Edited September 3, 2021 by Ronin46

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Ronin46 said:

 

Thanks for that and appreciate all your contributions.

 

Here is deadlines CANDYMAN Froday am update last week

 

Friday AM Update: Universal/MGM/Monkeypaw’s reimagination of the cult classic horror movie Candyman posted $1.9 million on Thursday from 2750 theaters off shows that began at 7 p.m. The pic, in a recent rare feat for horror pics, has an 86% certified fresh score on Rotten Tomatoes.

Interestingly enough, another critically acclaimed horror release that played the late August period in 2016 off an 88% certified fresh RT, Don’t Breathe, turned into a $26.4M opening and ultimate $89.2M final domestic, a nice sleeper to tee off the fall. Candyman‘s Thursday night beats that of Don’t Breathe, which was $1.875M.

Candyman is set to gross in the mid-teens, though there’s the feeling that this Jordan Peele-produced and coscripted movie with director Nia DaCosta can overperform, and after Free Guy‘s hold, it’s another vibrant sign for a box office that’s looking to return to some normalcy. Males between ages 17-34 are the prime demo here, and, well, that’s who’s been unafraid to head to the cinema during the pandemic.

Smaller grossers are harder to hone in for sure. it just needs slight over performance to diverge a lot. Plus I said their weekend projections tend to be off. Look at only Friday number where they will have data to project. 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, poweranimals said:

Given the better reception and the lack of PA, what would even cause that?

I don't think there will be any other excuse outside of Delta, an info that won't be well received by Studios.

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

I don't think there will be any other excuse outside of Delta, an info that won't be well received by Studios.

Yeah I mean if these numbers are real it's bye bye to pretty much the entire fall slate except the HBO Max ones. I hate to be dramatic but that number would be fucking rancid. Not the overall weekend but the hold clearly indicates it's only fans coming out to theaters.

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, Lokis Legion said:

Already had 🍍🍕 twice this week, but I’ll celebrate this opening with a 3rd 😄

Reacts on this are the most ridiculous thing I’ve maybe ever seen on the forum