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Eric Riley

SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

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FWIW, I don't think Disney is moving from the Fall. If Shang Chi doesn't meet their expectations, they'll simply pivot to a PA release where possible. I know, Scar Jo has a lawsuit and all but they'll find a way to sweeten the pot for someone like Angelina Jolie.

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13 minutes ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Honestly as much as people love to mock Deadline for being off-base on early Friday #s, they've been accurate this summer IIRC. F9 and Widow matched what Deadline was saying mid-day.

 

And really, I think we need to recognize that the MCU is just more insular and fan-driven now. Endgame was a good stopping point for casual Marvel fans who don't watch everything and there's no big Thanos hook to bring folks in. I also think the Disney+ shows especially are diluting the brand. They're forcing people to talk about Marvel basically every week and I think everybody but the diehard fans is starting to get tired of it. Even when they moved on to three movies, you still had a good break of two or three months where Marvel wasn't in the conversation. But now they're trying to put out four movies and five TV seasons a year and it's just so exhausting.

 

Not that it hurts Disney or Papa Feige too much, because Marvel fans have probably the most active fandom ever and will still sell tons of tickets and toys. 2022's slate is also full of big sequels that are supposed to have huge event-shattering stuff in them, so I guess they could bounce back. But I do think we're getting to a point where the series isn't the almighty top dog anymore and that fatigue may at long last be settling in. I guess all those Avatar delays were some 4-D chess shit from Jimbo.

In addition to that I do wonder if the Disney+ tie-ins are going to be a help or a detriment especially with the whole multiverse thing they’re aiming for. I find it kind of unlikely that you don’t need to watch the show in order to understand the movie or why character A is here. So I do think the ceiling may be lower.

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Just now, MrPink said:

FWIW, I don't think Disney is moving from the Fall. If Shang Chi doesn't meet their expectations, they'll simply pivot to a PA release where possible. I know, Scar Jo has a lawsuit and all but they'll find a way to sweeten the pot for someone like Angelina Jolie.

Either that or Eternals moves to Christmas and Encanto gets the theaters/PA deal.

 

The only thing I see moving is probably NWH because on paper it could be a big hit for Sony and if the usual MCU demos aren’t there in full force yet, they may go for 2022 and they could easily reconfigure the marketing for it too as they can say something like 20 years of Spider-Man films.

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Man, I would wait for some later estimates before all this doomposting. Deadline has been very accurate recently but you can only be so accurate from numbers this early (and in the past they were known to lowball although recently they have not done so). 

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8 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

In addition to that I do wonder if the Disney+ tie-ins are going to be a help or a detriment especially with the whole multiverse thing they’re aiming for. I find it kind of unlikely that you don’t need to watch the show in order to understand the movie or why character A is here. So I do think the ceiling may be lower.

My dad hasn’t seen any of the Marvel shows, but he’s seen just about all the movies, either with me in theaters or when they pop up on cable.

 

When I took him to see Black Widow, I had to explain for like 10 minutes

 

Spoiler

why Julia Louis Dreyfus pops up at the end and how it ties into Falcon and the Winter Soldier and that Hawkeye show.


I imagine this stuff will only get worse and worse and I don’t really like it. These Marvel shows are really making Phase 4 feel like homework IMO

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It probably doesn't help that Shang Chi also has nothing to indicate it is an MCU movie in any of the trailers until the Marvel logo at the end, so it might be a worst of both worlds situation.

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Many fans didn't watch all the MCU movies in the past, I don't see why the shows would be much different. If SC does only 16m on Friday (remember this estimate is very early) my takeaway would more be that fans are shifting habits to Thursday quicker than I expected. 

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2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Man, I would wait for some later estimates before all this doomposting. Deadline has been very accurate recently but you can only be so accurate from numbers this early (and in the past they were known to lowball although recently they have not done so). 

I would be very suprised if deadline was that close this time.....how are presales looking ?

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2 minutes ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

My dad hasn’t seen any of the Marvel shows, but he’s seen just about all the movies, either with me in theaters or when they pop up on cable.

 

When I took him to see Black Widow, I had to explain for like 10 minutes

 

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why Julia Louis Dreyfus pops up at the end and how it ties into Falcon and the Winter Soldier and that Hawkeye show.


I imagine this stuff will only get worse and worse and I don’t really like it. These Marvel shows are really making Phase 4 feel like homework IMO

It was a 30 second post credit scene. It wasn't really all that complicated.

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1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

$25m is good but not sure how they’re getting $60m as wouldn’t low to mid 50s be more likely? Here’s hoping for a bit more considering it is still early.

8.8

16.2

18

16

 

that’s 59 I guess? Looks about right though hopefully late night west coast walkups blah blah blah.

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