SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I actually have talked to a couple of smart posters here who think Cry Macho could do high teens, so I'm not gonna dismiss that out of hand even though I'm going more like 12m. Doesn't have the hook of the Mule but Clint usually does draw when he stars.

I think Max+older audiences still not returning to theaters will hurt it massively. I'm only expecting 8-10M for it.

[JWR]

This movie made more money domestically in one day than Snake Eyes made in all of 3 weeks. 😆

 

Jokes aside, I think Shang-Chi will hold the #1 spot at least until Dear Evan Hansen (which I'm still uncertain of how it will do after In the Heights).

[YM!]

I kind of want to do some guesstimates on the Fall slate:

 

SC: $70m/$85m/$210m

DEH: $20m/$65m

Cry Macho: $14m/$32m

Newark: $15m/$35m

Bond: $70m/$190m

Venom: $55m/$165m

Halloween: $45m/$130m

Dune: $30m/$65m

 

[Cmasterclay]

Tele's point about people already being used to watching Sopranos on HBO Max really stuck with me, otherwise I'd be saying 30m+ OW for it. Has real hype but def gonna be alot of HBO Max viewers.

[TigerPaw]

With this RT audience score, cinemascore and most importantly the lack of any major competition (thanks Sony and Venom, LOL). 200m domestic total is a lock - i don't see how it will miss 200m at this point.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, JWR said:

This movie made more money domestically in one day than Snake Eyes made in all of 3 weeks. 😆

 

Jokes aside, I think Shang-Chi will hold the #1 spot at least until Dear Evan Hansen (which I'm still uncertain of how it will do after In the Heights).

I'm not concerned about DEH. As I've said before, it's a significantly more popular musical than ITH, and the marketing sells what the movie is actually about unlike ITH. I doubt it lights the box office on fire, but it'll have a good opening and good legs.

[JWR]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm not concerned about DEH. As I've said before, it's a significantly more popular musical than ITH, and the marketing sells what the movie is actually about unlike ITH. I doubt it lights the box office on fire, but it'll have a good opening and good legs.

 

Better legs due being a theater exclusive, but also covers more controversial subject material.

[Eric Duncan]

Honestly, Dear Evan Hansen feels like one of those movies where the people saying it will bomb are just saying it because they want it to bomb. The meltdowns and fights over this when it opens to like 25M are gonna be fun.

[JWR]

Just now, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Honestly, Dear Evan Hansen feels like one of those movies where the people saying it will bomb are just saying it because they want it to bomb. The meltdowns and fights over this when it opens to like 25M are gonna be fun.

 

It's a Stephan Chobsky movie so I'm 100% confident it'll be good. Believe me, I WANT it to do well. But my PTSD from In The Heights holds me back.

[Cmasterclay]

Dear Evan Hansen isn't that popular among the olds or the casuals that make a musical have a break out, but it should have a solid teens floor. Musicals are a weird genre because many of them get stuck in a range, but when they hit they can really hit.

[filmlover]

I have no idea what to expect from Dear Evan Hansen. It premieres at TIFF on Thursday night as the opening movie so we'll find out if we have yet another Broadway-hit-turned-movie-flop or not on the horizon soon enough.

[Borobudur]

I would love to see Dear Evan beating ITH, just to mock their HBO access. 

[MrPink]

I think Dear Evan Hansen will find its way to success

[mattie08]

Wow, made it through all 39 pages, what a ride. 

 

Thrilled to see these numbers and to contribute to them later tonight. Also wanted to add my own little anecdote — I had tickets to see SC with my cousin Thursday at 7, and when I picked our seats it was the fullest theater I would have been to post-pandemic (BW would have been close, but that’s it). BUT, neither of us, coming from opposite directions, having left early, and using every trick in the book, could get around the Ida-flooded roads to reach the theater. (In the Northeast U.S.) At 7 PM on the dot, I saw that Fandango had automatically cancelled and refunded the tickets. I then made my twice-the-normal-time trip back home. Neither of us had the heart to try again yesterday/Friday. Wish me luck tonight!

Edited September 4, 2021 by mattie08

[grey ghost]

29 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I kind of want to do some guesstimates on the Fall slate:

 

SC: $70m/$85m/$210m

DEH: $20m/$65m

Cry Macho: $14m/$32m

Newark: $15m/$35m

Bond: $70m/$190m

Venom: $55m/$165m

Halloween: $45m/$130m

Dune: $30m/$65m

 

 

Venom 2 is too low.

 

I think it has even more hype than BW and SC.

 

 

[Pinacolada]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Venom 2 is too low.

 

I think it has even more hype than BW and SC.

 

 

Yes, but I think Halloween Kills opening the same day is what's gonna significantly lessen its opening weekend performance 

[Cap]

Dear Evan Hansen is one of those terrible things that refuses to die. I absolutely expect it to keep doing the same. Don’t count it out. 

[MikeQ]

It feels good to have the box office back, and to have an exciting weekend with an MCU theatrical exclusive - silly thread meltdowns and all. 😂

 

Cracking out and updating one of my box office charts for Shang-Chi. As you can see below, it's had a healthy share of opening day from previews, hitting under 30%. I'm hopeful for a weekend that isn't frontloaded and benefits nicely  from Labour Day.

 

Preview Grosses for Some Comic Book Films and the Share of Opening Day

 

Title / Preview Gross / Share of Opening Day

1. Avengers: Endgame (2019) — 60.0 million (38.1%)
2. Avengers: Infinity War (2018) — 39.0 million (36.7%)
3. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 30.6 million (40.4%)
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 27.7 million (34.0%)
5. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 27.6 million (32.7%)
6. Black Panther (2018) — 25.2 million (33.2%)
7. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 25 million (33.1%)
8. Captain Marvel (2019) — 20.7 million (33.5%)
9. Suicide Squad (2016) — 20.5 million (31.6%)
10. Marvel's The Avengers (2012) — 18.7 million (23.1%)
11. Deadpool 2 (2018) — 18.6 million (35.1%)
12. The Dark Knight (2008) — 18.5 million (27.5%)
13. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 17 million (30.2%)
14. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 15.6 million (22.7%)
15. Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) — 15.4 million (30.5%)
16. Thor: Ragnarok (2017) — 14.5 million (31.0%)
17. Black Widow — 13.2 million (33.4%)
18. Deadpool (2016) — 12.7 million (26.8%)
19. Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) — 11.5 million (34.1%)
20. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 11.2 million (29.6%)
21. Wonder Woman (2017) — 11.0 million (28.3%)
22. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 10.2 million (27.6%)
23. Venom (2018) — 10.0 million (30.8%)
24. Doctor Strange (2016) — 9.4 million (28.8%)
25. Aquaman (2018) — 9.0 million (32.1%)
26. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (2021) — 8.8 million (29.7%)
27. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 8.7 million (24.7%)

Peace,

Mike

Edited September 4, 2021 by MikeQ

[Ledmonkey96]

Dear Evan Hansen is a musical?

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, MrPink said:

I think Dear Evan Hansen will find its way to success

I actually hope it's a hit for Ben Platt's sake so he can have the last laugh after all the snickering he's endured for his casting/appearance as a high schooler (not helped by the fact they've saddled him with what has to be the most tragic movie hairdo since Tom Hanks in The Da Vinci Code) since the first footage of the movie was released.