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Eric Madrigal

SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

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Just now, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Right in line with Jatinder's projections. Very good. How much further than $70M can this movie get over 3 days? Because that's the floor at this point.

 

If Sunday stays flat $76m.  If it drops 10% - $74m.  Then $88-92m 4 day

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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

ScarJo will save the world from PA. A hero we deserve! :worthy:

 

Alas, SC was already scheduled to go strictly theatrical so she gets no credit.  Which brings us to the default

 

Villain Books? Good, Bad? Valiant's Future? Kevin Feige IS RULER! -  Absolute Comics #3 - YouTube

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4 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

If Sunday stays flat $76m.  If it drops 10% - $74m.  Then $88-92m 4 day

23->16 high end, -30.5% Mon

21-> 14 low end, -33.3% Mon  

 

Think we can do better than that for Monday. Maybe a lot, maybe not

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When we hit the post-pandemic record weekend thread length later today everyone should celebrate with a premium account. No ads and unlimited likes is great on these weekends.
 

Spoiler

If economically feasible blah blah blah

 

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14 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

If Sunday stays flat $76m.  If it drops 10% - $74m.  Then $88-92m 4 day

Hard. Seeing pre-sales I was thinking $21M ish. Let's see it do better or worse.

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Wow impressive for Shang Chi. Doing more than I thought it would without a pandemic. 

 

PA should hopefully be dead and so too 'day and date'. I don't even think 45 days is long enough, the old system worked fine, but I guess that's the best we can expect moving forward. 

 

 

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I think 45 days is "fine" as long as studios are then putting it on PVOD for a cost, not directly to their "free" streaming.  That is wht the major problem is.  

 

For example, Free Guy is supposed to be going to Disney+ after 45 days.  Why?  What the fuck is the rush?  Why wouldn't you put it on PA / PVOD for a $19.99 cost for another 45 days and then it hits Disney+ after 90 total days.  That gives you a triple revenue stream and then it gets to live there forever.  

 

I just don't know what the justification for the rush is.  

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4 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I think 45 days is "fine" as long as studios are then putting it on PVOD for a cost, not directly to their "free" streaming.  That is wht the major problem is.  

 

For example, Free Guy is supposed to be going to Disney+ after 45 days.  Why?  What the fuck is the rush?  Why wouldn't you put it on PA / PVOD for a $19.99 cost for another 45 days and then it hits Disney+ after 90 total days.  That gives you a triple revenue stream and then it gets to live there forever.  

 

I just don't know what the justification for the rush is.  

Especially FG is a original film with good WoM, which tend to have stronger legs and slower burnout rate for demand, just look at Knives out and AQP1. Treating sequel and original/standalone film the same is the wrong mindset. 

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6 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I think 45 days is "fine" as long as studios are then putting it on PVOD for a cost, not directly to their "free" streaming.  That is wht the major problem is.  

 

For example, Free Guy is supposed to be going to Disney+ after 45 days.  Why?  What the fuck is the rush?  Why wouldn't you put it on PA / PVOD for a $19.99 cost for another 45 days and then it hits Disney+ after 90 total days.  That gives you a triple revenue stream and then it gets to live there forever.  

 

I just don't know what the justification for the rush is.  

Yeah, theatrical to free is just skipping a window for ??? reasons. Some kind of PA after a bit (maybe #20 after 45, maybe $30 a little sooner, maybe determine the timeline based on how big the movie’s, say 3rd weekend is) feel like such an obvious thing to experiment I’m shocked we haven’t seen it yet.

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7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I think 45 days is "fine" as long as studios are then putting it on PVOD for a cost, not directly to their "free" streaming.  That is wht the major problem is.  

 

For example, Free Guy is supposed to be going to Disney+ after 45 days.  Why?  What the fuck is the rush?  Why wouldn't you put it on PA / PVOD for a $19.99 cost for another 45 days and then it hits Disney+ after 90 total days.  That gives you a triple revenue stream and then it gets to live there forever.  

 

I just don't know what the justification for the rush is.  

No it isn't. It's going digital only in 45 days, then physical in October, and because it's a Fox movie, it's going to HBO first.

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For the sake of simplicity, let’s say we get $73 million for the 3 day and $88 million for the four. With no Covid hesitancy or pandemic related closings, my estimate is the number would be 25 to 35% higher.

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7 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I just don't know what the justification for the rush is.  

Earlier the movie come on the streaming platform, adds to the value of the streaming platform.

 

I think 17 days PVOD and 45 days free on streaming/SVOD is a good move. Gives the theatrical exclusivity enough time to get those who wanna go and watch it, while give the consumers content they wanna watch on their devices in right time when content is still buzzing.

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So $75m OW with a high 80m 4 day for Shang-Chi, that’s phenomenal. A strong debut for essentially a D tier hero backed by the MCU brand. That’s like the 5th best MCU opening for a solo film and 6th best for an origin. 

 

 

I do think we’ll see more stuff opening Labor Day weekend and September. Be it the strength of the IT movies and now Shang-Chi, like February, September no longer seems like a dead month. There’s a lot of films in 2022 that’d benefit from some extra space. The Flash, Wick 4, Black Adam, ITSV2, and Transformers seem like viable candidates.

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