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Eric Madrigal

SHANG-CHI WEEKEND THREAD | NO SPOILERS | 75.38M 3-Day, 94.67M 4-Day. Record for Labor Day! | Tony Leung saved the theater! | Get Vaccinated and Wear a mask.

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3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

For the sake of simplicity, let’s say we get $73 million for the 3 day and $88 million for the four. With no Covid hesitancy or pandemic related closings, my estimate is the number would be 25 to 35% higher.

I’m actually start to think more or less, the number would be about the same pre-Covid for it and BW give or take 10-15%, which still isn’t a bad thing.

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I really wonder how the awareness/interest stats can be so off sometimes. Someone posted those stats on r/boxoffice where Shang-Chi was lagging behind Free Guy in both awareness and interest. Are they just getting bad samples or what, or not accounting for fanbase factors. 

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1 minute ago, Menor said:

I really wonder how the awareness/interest stats can be so off sometimes. Someone posted those stats on r/boxoffice where Shang-Chi was lagging behind Free Guy in both awareness and interest. Are they just getting bad samples or what, or not accounting for fanbase factors. 

I think this is just a difference between internet buzz and real world buzz. 

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4 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

So $75m OW with a high 80m 4 day for Shang-Chi, that’s phenomenal. A strong debut for essentially a D tier hero backed by the MCU brand. That’s like the 5th best MCU opening for a solo film and 6th best for an origin. 

 

 

I do think we’ll see more stuff opening Labor Day weekend and September. Be it the strength of the IT movies and now Shang-Chi, like February, September no longer seems like a dead month. There’s a lot of films in 2022 that’d benefit from some extra space. The Flash, Wick 4, Black Adam, ITSV2, and Transformers seem like viable candidates.

Surely Shang Chi’s performance finally puts to bed the idea that there’s “dead months/weekends”. Obviously there’s some exceptions with mitigating circumstances like Super Bowl weekend, but the idea that you can’t open a film on a holiday always seemed silly to me. If the film is appealing then you can open it pretty much anywhere and people will turn up. In the UK, holiday weekends are some of the biggest of the entire year (not counting Christmas Day where we’re thankfully closed).

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Just now, Borobudur said:

I think this is just a difference between internet buzz and real world buzz. 

I don't think this has to do with the internet. Pretty sure they go out and poll people to get these samples. 

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3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

So $75m OW with a high 80m 4 day for Shang-Chi, that’s phenomenal. A strong debut for essentially a D tier hero backed by the MCU brand. That’s like the 5th best MCU opening for a solo film and 6th best for an origin. 

 

 

I do think we’ll see more stuff opening Labor Day weekend and September. Be it the strength of the IT movies and now Shang-Chi, like February, September no longer seems like a dead month. There’s a lot of films in 2022 that’d benefit from some extra space. The Flash, Wick 4, Black Adam, ITSV2, and Transformers seem like viable candidates.

Next year feels so overstuffed with movies so close to one another it's insane. Guess that's what you pay when you delay everything. If we're going with a new Labor Day title, John Wick or Black Adam sound about right.

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On the window front, I think 45 days is the way to go, then PVOD. 

Anything less than that and you’re then giving audiences a ‘not that long to wait for tv’ factor, where as 7 weeks is a decent amount of time to be out of the conversation should you not go.  
 

There has to be some kind of kick for people to think it’s worth the trip. 17 days isn’t that, in my opinion. 

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9 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I’m actually start to think more or less, the number would be about the same pre-Covid for it and BW give or take 10-15%, which still isn’t a bad thing.

 

BW pre-Covid with no PA would have done at least $120M. 

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8 minutes ago, Menor said:

I really wonder how the awareness/interest stats can be so off sometimes. Someone posted those stats on r/boxoffice where Shang-Chi was lagging behind Free Guy in both awareness and interest. Are they just getting bad samples or what, or not accounting for fanbase factors. 

Probably mix of all. Besides tracking is based on some 1000 people polling while for pre-sales we take the interest of hundreds of thousands people, who just don't say they will watch a film but pay for it.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

BW pre-Covid with no PA would have done at least $120M. 

BW during covid with no PA would have been not far from $120, so arguably the impact there is almost all PA very little pandemic per se.

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12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Earlier the movie come on the streaming platform, adds to the value of the streaming platform.

 

I think 17 days PVOD and 45 days free on streaming/SVOD is a good move. Gives the theatrical exclusivity enough time to get those who wanna go and watch it, while give the consumers content they wanna watch on their devices in right time when content is still buzzing.

 

Yeah, I think we just disagree on this.  Those times are too short and give people an incentive to just wait a couple weeks and they can see it free and skip it in theaters.  

 

I disagree it adds to the value of the platform.  Nobody is canceling a $8 per month subscription because they get it for free on streaming at 90 days instead of 45 days.  I also think that the staggered windows in fact give films a lot longer and more sustained buzz.  You get the initial boost with the theatrical, another chance to boost in 6 weeks with PVOD and then another boost 6 weeks later with the free streaming.  

 

To me, it's the argument on releasing entire seasons on streaming the same day or releasing them week by week.  I think in the last 2 years it has been proven that releasing weekly instead of dumping all at once creates huge buzz and enters it into the cultural conversation.  

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Jan/Feb has always been a no go for studios releasing any big guns, due to awards season. With so many of the upcoming contenders being on streamers, I think there’s room for one or two to bump up and go for it.  The audience is there, waiting for so many huge movies next year.  There’s no need to pile them on top of one another. 
 

edit - I can see a couple more in those months I didn’t realise were there. Man it is a packed 2022 for event movies. Lol. 

Edited by wildphantom
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3 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

BW during covid with no PA would have been not far from $120, so arguably the impact there is almost all PA very little pandemic per se.

Out of curiosity is PA WW or just DOM, if it’s just domestic then I agree but iirc PA is WW, and assuming half, it’d be more around $110m OW.

 

9 minutes ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

Next year feels so overstuffed with movies so close to one another it's insane. Guess that's what you pay when you delay everything. If we're going with a new Labor Day title, John Wick or Black Adam sound about right.

Also August seems empty as well. Something like
8/5 - Black Adam or The Flash

8/12 - Transformers

9/2 - John Wick 4

 

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Pineapple pizza is good if it has the right toppings to balance out. Add some heat like jalapeños and the right meat, maybe beef, sausage or pepperoni and it works really well. 

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5 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

So im safe guys? No pineapple pizza for me?

 

On 8/22/2021 at 12:57 PM, Lokis Legion said:

 

Don’t worry Fabio, you’re technically safe from the 🍍 🍕 when it goes over 85

Told you two weeks ago 

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2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Out of curiosity is PA WW or just DOM, if it’s just domestic then I agree but iirc PA is WW, and assuming half, it’d be more around $110m OW.

60 was worldwide but iirc it was later worked out to be like 40-50 from dom, heavy skew. Don’t recall an exact source atm though.

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