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Eric Madrigal

Weekday Numbers (9/7-9) | Shang-Chi 6.62M Tuesday

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40 minutes ago, Noctis said:

The movie needs to have a release in China - I'm stunned it hasn't. 

 

It's going to do absolute gangbusters there. 

Saying this is basically a sin in this forum lately.

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2 hours ago, MrPink said:

Give me some rest of week projections, someone.

I gotchu

 

5.6M Weds (-20%)

5.4M Thurs (-4%)

 

13M (+140%)

19.5M (+50%)

11.7M (-40%)

44.2M Weekend, 41% drop

 

This seems too optimistic but... :sparta: 

 

I forget if larger movies only increase 100-120% on Friday outside of summer. It's been too long.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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35 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I gotchu

 

5.6M Weds (-20%)

5.4M Thurs (-4%)

 

13M (+140%)

19.5M (+50%)

11.7M (-40%)

44.2M Weekend, 41% drop

 

This seems too optimistic but... :sparta: 

 

I forget if larger movies only increase 100-120% on Friday outside of summer. It's been too long.

They do...sun seems like a little too harsh to me though ...more like 37% drop for 45 mill or so

 

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58 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I gotchu

 

5.6M Weds (-20%)

5.4M Thurs (-4%)

 

13M (+140%)

19.5M (+50%)

11.7M (-40%)

44.2M Weekend, 41% drop

 

This seems too optimistic but... :sparta: 

 

I forget if larger movies only increase 100-120% on Friday outside of summer. It's been too long.

Puny 😌

 

Mon (19.2) [-16%] = 94.7

Tue (7.3) [-62%] = 102

Wed (6) [-18%] = 108

Thu (6) [-0%] = 114

 

• 2nd

- weekend (46) [-39%] [-30.9% Fri-Sun] = 160

Fri (13) [+117%]

Sat (19) [+46%]

Sun (14) [-26%]

- weekdays (18) = 188

Mon (4.3)

Tue (5.7)

Wed (4)

Thu (4)

 

• 3rd

- weekend (30) [-35%] = 218

-‎ weekdays (12) = 230

• 4th

- weekend (20) [-33%] = 250

-‎ weekdays (8) = 258

• 5th

- weekend (12) [-40%] = 270

-‎ weekdays (5) = 275

• ‎6th

- weekend (7) [-42%] = 282

-‎ weekdays (3) = 285

•‎ 7th

- weekend (5) [-28%] = 290

-‎ weekdays (2) = 292

•‎ 8th (5) = 297

• 9th (3) = 300

 

FINAL = $305M (〜 ̄▽ ̄)〜

Edited by nguyenkhoi282
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1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

This seems too optimistic but

I think SUN drop is too harsh but since weekdays are strong, we might have muted FRI bump.

 

Otherwise I am thinking 42 weekend myself.

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5 hours ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

I am much more on board for 40+ weekend now, maybe 45, but let’s see Wed first.

All I am saying it that I called this on sunday 😛

7m + tuesday is perfectly in line with my projections ^^

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3 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

Pipe down old man

Wait leave him alone every time he low balls we get an even higher result. He's pretty much our bad luck good luck charm

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47 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

<50% drop from holiday weekend at higher level number would trigger a bigger shock than FG's 2nd weekend hold. 

Yeah. That's why I am bit cautious. 

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48 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

<50% drop from holiday weekend at higher level number would trigger a bigger shock than FG's 2nd weekend hold. 

So I was discussing with @Legion of the Ten Crores that whether having Sunday as holiday boost OW or 4-days weekend spread out the business, to say if a normal OW was may be $85M ish instead of $75M 3 days and $95M 4 days. 

 

If its former, $40M+ weekend will make sense.

 

Besides its not summer anymore. Weekend drops MUST be soft.

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36 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Why?

American-(other culture) isn't exactly a sell for the mainland of that culture. So its not a smart thing to say that if the film has American-(other culture) characters, it will do bonkers in that other culture.

 

Sometime it can, but those are exception. 

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2 hours ago, Noctis said:

Why?

Reception in East Asia overall seems fairly meh. So it will probably just do baseline MCU numbers, nothing special. 

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