john2000 Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said: 400 is lock. 425-450 depending on if DOM end 240 or 260 & if the late additions like Indonesia, Malaysia can add like $10-15M. 450 would mean that the movie will have reach its break even point anything more than that and it could make some profit theatrical only(not counting china)...very very good for shang Edited September 10, 2021 by john2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, john2000 said: 450 would mean that the movie will have reach its break even point anything more than that and it could make some profit theatrical only(not counting china)...very very good for shang It would have breakeven with $0 box office with Disney+ PA and TV/Home media revenue and valuation. There was never a doubt on breakeven. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: It would have breakeven with $0 box office with Disney+ PA and TV/Home media revenue and valuation. There was never a doubt on breakeven. IF shang can make 450 without china...i would think that eternals could hit 600mill sans china Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, john2000 said: IF shang can make 450 without china...i would think that eternals could hit 600mill sans china 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 (edited) Eternals 600M w/o China is the floor, IMO. Romance will make it interesting to people who don't care about superheroes and there's considerable anticipation in the former GOT community cause it reunites 2 KITNs. Also, Harry Styles fans are buzzing about Harry being in (?) so some may check it out to see if that's true. And if it is.... Romance + Snow/Stark + maybe Harry Styles = best female attendance of any Marvel movie this is important cause movies that are hit with women tend to be leggier. SC had the worst female attendance (expected) but the movie looks poised to chug along nicely so Eternals should have even better legs. And we know that competition cleared from week 2 and 3. Edited September 10, 2021 by Valonqar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 55 minutes ago, Valonqar said: Eternals 600M w/o China is the floor, IMO. Romance will make it interesting to people who don't care about superheroes and there's considerable anticipation in the former GOT community cause it reunites 2 KITNs. Also, Harry Styles fans are buzzing about Harry being in (?) so some may check it out to see if that's true. And if it is.... Romance + Snow/Stark + maybe Harry Styles = best female attendance of any Marvel movie this is important cause movies that are hit with women tend to be leggier. SC had the worst female attendance (expected) but the movie looks poised to chug along nicely so Eternals should have even better legs. And we know that competition cleared from week 2 and 3. All that you listed is frankly not really a factor except for GoT casting making it a fresh ensemble. Eternals $600M is floor without China because its low mid tier to mid tier MCU (not quality, but box office) movie like Black Widow which have a range of $800-1B of expected box office. low tier MCU movies are like Ant-Man, Shang Chi with range of $600-800M. mid tier MCU movies are like FFH which can do $1-1.25B. upper mid is likes of NWH, Thor 4, Civil War which can do $1.25-2B upper tier are Avengers movies till now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 That all stands but other factors won't turn it into No Tier aka under low tier floor. And you agreed that GOT actors have some added value together. I will rephrase it into which low tier will make the most money. My bet is on Eternals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Valonqar said: That all stands but other factors won't turn it into No Tier aka under low tier floor. And you agreed that GOT actors have some added value together. I will rephrase it into which low tier will make the most money. My bet is on Eternals. The whole concept being super being, cosmo events are bigger stakes than eartherly matters of say Black Widow or Ant-man. That makes it bigger than them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: All that you listed is frankly not really a factor except for GoT casting making it a fresh ensemble. Eternals $600M is floor without China because its low mid tier to mid tier MCU (not quality, but box office) movie like Black Widow which have a range of $800-1B of expected box office. low tier MCU movies are like Ant-Man, Shang Chi with range of $600-800M. mid tier MCU movies are like FFH which can do $1-1.25B. upper mid is likes of NWH, Thor 4, Civil War which can do $1.25-2B upper tier are Avengers movies till now. Would phrase this like: low tier = Less popular/known character and small-scale story mid-tier = either less popular/known character and big-scale story (CM) or more popular character and small-scale story (FFH) upper-mid = more popular character and big-scale story 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 (edited) Oh the concept for sure. Everything is on such an epic scale especially love that spans over 1000s years. This may not be a popular aspect on BOT but it's huge with my younger sisters and their friends and on shipper social media. @Menor good breakdown for Marvel tier too! It's truly going to be something new for Marvel. Edited September 10, 2021 by Valonqar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Menor said: Would phrase this like: low tier = Less popular/known character and small-scale story mid-tier = either less popular/known character and big-scale story (CM) or more popular character and small-scale story (FFH) upper-mid = more popular character and big-scale story Yeah that's exactly what it is. I just added 2 sub tiers to mid tier as there is big range there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exomassey Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 I’m looking forward to Eternals but I’m worried it could be MCU’s first big misfire critically. I know it’s directed by Chloe Zhao but the reaction to it from some media people I follow just seems like ‘This looks bad’. Obviously I could be wrong but people labelling this as a ‘Oscar contender’ because of Zhao could really be hurting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 1 minute ago, exomassey said: I’m looking forward to Eternals but I’m worried it could be MCU’s first big misfire critically. I know it’s directed by Chloe Zhao but the reaction to it from some media people I follow just seems like ‘This looks bad’. Obviously I could be wrong but people labelling this as a ‘Oscar contender’ because of Zhao could really be hurting it. ... um based on what i am seeing....majority LOVED the last trailer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
exomassey Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, john2000 said: ... um based on what i am seeing....majority LOVED the last trailer... I thought the last trailer was great too. I just feel people are waiting for Marvel to trip and Eternals could be the one. However, Eternals does look different to typical MCU film. There’s a practical, sci-fi feel to it, which I think will work in its favour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vafrow Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, exomassey said: I’m looking forward to Eternals but I’m worried it could be MCU’s first big misfire critically. I know it’s directed by Chloe Zhao but the reaction to it from some media people I follow just seems like ‘This looks bad’. Obviously I could be wrong but people labelling this as a ‘Oscar contender’ because of Zhao could really be hurting it. There's a wide space to being a critical misfire and an Oscar contender. Oscar calibre directors are not immune to making bad comic book movies (Ang Lee says hello), but it feels like between the goodwill that Chloe has from her Oscar win and the general safeguards that the MCU provides, its hard to imagine this really going off the rails. I don't think there will be much in the way of awards talk around any of the MCU films, but, that's almost impossible to predict. Only way is if there's a desire to have a big box office film in the mix, and if that were to be the motivation, I'd put money on it being Lana Wachoswki if Matrix 4 delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidey Freak Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said: Eternals $600M is floor without China because its low mid tier to mid tier MCU (not quality, but box office) 38 minutes ago, Menor said: Would phrase this like: low tier = Less popular/known character and small-scale story mid-tier = either less popular/known character and big-scale story (CM) or more popular character and small-scale story (FFH) upper-mid = more popular character and big-scale story How are Captain Marvel and FFH mid-tier box office though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menor the Destroyer Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said: How are Captain Marvel and FFH mid-tier box office though? Compared to Avengers films they are. Also you can see the potential when you increase to a larger scale with NWH vs FFH hype. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said: How are Captain Marvel and FFH mid-tier box office though? Mid tier of MCU. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidey Freak Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Menor said: Compared to Avengers films they are. Also you can see the potential when you increase to a larger scale with NWH vs FFH hype. What is the bottom limit of "mid-tier" if 1.1B+ films like CM and FFH are also a part of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iHeartJames Posted September 10, 2021 Share Posted September 10, 2021 My ex said I was mid tier in bed so idk how I feel about this conversation. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
