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Eric Belcher

Weekday Numbers (9/7-9) | Shang-Chi 6.62M Tuesday

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8 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 What is the bottom limit of "mid-tier" if 1.1B+ films like CM and FFH are also a part of it?

I would say low tier (excluding Covid films) so far has been Ant-Man 1 and 2, Hulk, TFA, Thor 1. High tier is Avengers films, Iron Man 3, BP. All else is mid tier.

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1 minute ago, Menor said:

I would say low tier (excluding Covid films) so far has been Ant-Man 1 and 2, Hulk, TFA, Thor 1. High tier is Avengers films, Iron Man 3, BP. All else is mid tier.

I won't include other phases films like that. Civil War in Phase 3 start was Upper mid tier. Released now it will hope for $1.5B+.

 

There has been massive growth in MCU post Infinity war with business going +50-100% in various markets.

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21 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

How are Captain Marvel and FFH mid-tier box office though? 

 

To be fair, Captain Marvel had possibly the most optimum positioning for box office of any film in history. I like the film far more than most (my 5th ranked MCU) but it's BO performance was undeniably situational.

 

I think Homecoming would have been a better example of a smaller scale story but as ever with categorising systems, they don't *totally* work to encompass everything....but they're useful to have to help discuss and conceive of films and I think the categories being proposed avove are useful enough to help discussion of future box office.

 

As for Eternals, I - without trying to grief it - do think it stands the biggest chance of misfire unless it *really* picks up some of the non-standard audience such as higher proportions of women and fandom communities. I think it's the film most effected by the changes in schedule. If I remember correctly, it was originally positioned as the second film of Phase 4, with only 2 films to be released that year (2020). That would have made it both the emotional launch of Phase 4 (given the perception of Black Widow as a bridge/coda) and therefore positionable as "This is the vision for Marvel going forward" while taking advantage of a Marvel-barren period post Endgame where the Disney+ series had barely launched (if at all). Changed to a release within the ultra-crowded 2021 schedule for MCU, following Shang-Chi and 4 D+ series where the Phase 4 is very established already, and only shortly before a massive (and very Marvel-normative) Spider-Man movie the rationale for its release seems to have been shrunk significantly and the movie's placement will come across - possibly - as more of an anomaly. And general audiences - and to a lesser extent critics - are unpredictable, trending negative, when it comes to anomalies from what they see as standard templates no matter how good the movie actually is (see cinema scores for A24s horror masterpieces like The VVitch, Hereditary and Midsommar).

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1 minute ago, Menor said:

I would say low tier (excluding Covid films) so far has been Ant-Man 1 and 2, Hulk, TFA, Thor 1. High tier is Avengers films, Iron Man 3, BP. All else is mid tier.

There's literally just a 60M gap between the CW/FFH/CM trio and IM3 WW. 😅 They are all in the Top 20 highest grossing films of all time anyway, in the 16-20 positions, 

 

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Possibly working against Eternals will be that critics will have higher expectations for it, due to who is behind the camera.  I know I do. 
 

I’m fully expecting it to be up there with the best comic book movies ever made. Unrealistic? Maybe. But this one feels like it’s going for something special. 
 

I guess what I’m saying is that if you’re on RT watch, expect it to appear more divisive because critics will judge it on Zhao’s level of quality, rather than standard MCU. 
 

Sadly, as most of the mainstream legitimately only think a movie can be good if over a certain high percentage, it could definitely be a factor in how it does. 

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2 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Possibly working against Eternals will be that critics will have higher expectations for it, due to who is behind the camera.  I know I do. 
 

I’m fully expecting it to be up there with the best comic book movies ever made. Unrealistic? Maybe. But this one feels like it’s going for something special. 
 

I guess what I’m saying is that if you’re on RT watch, expect it to appear more divisive because critics will judge it on Zhao’s level of quality, rather than standard MCU. 
 

Sadly, as most of the mainstream legitimately only think a movie can be good if over a certain high percentage, it could definitely be a factor in how it does. 

Yes totally agree with this and is what I was trying to say. This film will be judged differently.

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LOL, critics are never harsh on Marvel movies so expecting them to suddenly turn on Eternals is ridiculous. Even movies that MCU fans think should have been rotten are fresh thanks to critics. So Eternals is much more likely to be one of the best reviewed MCU movies than one of the worst.

Edited by Valonqar
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12 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I won't include other phases films like that. Civil War in Phase 3 start was Upper mid tier. Released now it will hope for $1.5B+.

 

I'm not sure if it works like that because Civil War needed to be released in 2016 for Infinity War and Endgame to be massive in 2018-19. Pre-Covid, the MCU fed successive films to be bigger with consecutive movies over the years, both in terms of team-ups (IW, EG, CW) and solos (BP, IM3, FFH, CM), with the exception being an overtly low scale film like Ant-Man and the Wasp which the Eternals is clearly not.

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55 minutes ago, Menor said:

I would say low tier (excluding Covid films) so far has been Ant-Man 1 and 2, Hulk, TFA, Thor 1. High tier is Avengers films, Iron Man 3, BP. All else is mid tier.

CW was upper tier too imo. 12th biggest movie at the time. 
 

Maybe roughly:

1-15/20ish Upper (your listed films+CW)

15/20ish-80ish Mid

80ish and worse Low (your listed films+DS)

Edited by Legion of the Ten Crores
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3 minutes ago, Legion of the Ten Crores said:

CW was upper tier too imo. 12th biggest movie at the time. 
 

Maybe roughly:

1-15/20ish Upper (your listed films+CW)

15/20ish-80ish Mid

80ish and worse Low (your listed films+DS)

well a film can overperform its tier. BP was low mid/mid tier film did upper mid numbers due to external push and better reception. Can also underperform like AoU.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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1 hour ago, Spidey Freak said:

There's literally just a 60M gap between the CW/FFH/CM trio and IM3 WW. 😅 They are all in the Top 20 highest grossing films of all time anyway, in the 16-20 positions, 

 

IM3 (and CW) didn't have the OS advantages of FFH and CM. As @Legion of the Ten Crores said their rankings at the time were a lot stronger. I am out of reactions but agree with the tier list that Legion posted.

 

Anyway as far as Eternals it will have good reviews and good audience scores. No need to overthink this after 25 movies. 

Edited by Menor
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In case anybody want a brief reminder: 

 

Endgame 1
The Avengers 3
Infinity War 4
Iron Man 3 5
Age of Ultron 5
Black Panther 9
Civil War 12
Captain Marvel 21
Far From Home* 23
Iron Man 44
Homecoming 49
Iron Man 2 50
Guardians of the Galaxy 51
Guardians Vol 2 55
Ragnarok 60
The Winter Soldier 61
The Dark World 73
Doctor Strange 96
Thor 116
Ant-man 137
Ant-Man and the Wasp 138
Captain America: The First Avenger 169
Incredible Hulk 240
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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

LOL, critics are never harsh on Marvel movies so expecting them to suddenly turn on Eternals is ridiculous. Even movies that MCU fans think should have been rotten are fresh thanks to critics. So Eternals is much more likely to be one of the best reviewed MCU movies than one of the worst.


i disagree. This one is being made by a genuinely great filmmaker. They’ll be expecting something very special. 

Edited by wildphantom
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51 minutes ago, wildphantom said:


i disagree. This one is being made by a genuinely great filmmaker. They’ll be expecting something very special. 

 

and she'll deliver. Critics tend to go easy on directors with "sophomore slump" so to speak (Kong Bloat got way easy praise on the heels of LOTR for example and even the Hobbit trilogy wasn't panned but mostly middling reviews)  but I don't think this will be the case. 

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54 minutes ago, wildphantom said:


i disagree. This one is being made by a genuinely great filmmaker. They’ll be expecting something very special. 

I mean I think it will be an upper-echelon CBM anyway, so probably all this will be for nothing. But if anything I think critics will give it more positive reviews even if it's not  that good because they like Zhao's style.

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6 minutes ago, Menor said:

I mean I think it will be an upper-echelon CBM anyway, so probably all this will be for nothing. But if anything I think critics will give it more positive reviews even if it's not  that good because they like Zhao's style.

Depends on grades they’ll hand out for “it’s better than most of the Marvel movies, but by her standards it’s a disappointment”. 
 

I’m just saying that is a realistic possibility of a reaction from high brow critics. 
Of which many don’t usually have expectations for MCU movies, and give them a solid pass - which means a good grade. 

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