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Valonqar

Dune OS Thread: The Great Maker swallows the Family in Korea, Vin Diesel in tears while being digested (pg 24)

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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Dune was at 55.7M on Thu and total is now estimated for 76.5M which means 2d weekend was 20.8M. Excellent hold but it's going to go up which is excellent-er. 

 

Overseas weekends include thursdays, hence $26m according to deadline.

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17 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Good idea. But even so, sequel is locked, sealed and delivered. And it's going to blow up cause there won't be hybrid crap by the time it's out (2023? 2024?). 

 

17 hours ago, vale900 said:

The should announce the sequel after the next weekend. At this point It's clear the movie is gonna make more than 300M so the announce can help to push the tickets sales in the us 2 weeks before the release.  

 

While Dune part 2 may well be greenlit very soon, I am not sure that the numbers we're seeing now are actually suggestive of a 100% certain approval on the sequel production.

 

If we assume that the rumored 165 million production budget is true, we also have to add a marketing and distribution budget. We've no idea how much that costs. For some of the huge titles in the past, such budgets could reach $150 or even $200 million. On top of the production budget. Even some of the cheaper movies, like a $30 million production budget horrors would sometimes spend more on marketing, like $50 million on top.

 

So, anything from $50 million to over $100 million for marketing of Dune seems plausible. But if anyone has any better guesses or, even better, accounts of promo campaigns in their countries - that'd be great. Have you seen a heavy promo push online? Lots of internet ads? TV ads? How often?

 

But even that is besides the point as most of the marketing costs are made within the US - where the real promo push may yet to start.

 

Western Europe/Russia/some Asian countries seems to be on track for a 120 million total tally. If mainland China does similarly to how Taiwan/HK are doing then China might do some 30 million more.  If the rest of the world (without NA) does similarly to how Euro region did, that might add another 150 million so far.

Then we have US/Canada. Due to HBO max same day release, it's impossible to predict that market. Without it, 100 mil would be more or less guaranteed. Even 150 possible. But with HBO's competition - who's to say. It could be as low as 50 million. It could theoretically reach even a 100 million.

 

But then we have to compare the expenses: lets say 215 to 265 million - to profit, once local distributors and cinemas are taken care of.

China takes 75% of the profits. Leaving 7.5 million in profits. Heck, even if china somehow does a 100 million in total, profits will be just 25 million.

Countries outside of the NA usually take 50 to 55%. So that could be another 130 million in profits.

NA does take a bit more in profits but still, not that much more, leaving theatre owners some 40 to 45%.

If Dune does 75 million in NA, that's something like 43 million.

 

So overall total, without taxes though, is 180 to 200 million, depending how well China does.

What sort of subscription increases does HBO max need to see due to Dune that Warners say it was equvalent of more millions of earnings is impossible to say. I guess a few tens of millions are likely there.

 

Then there are various other digital sales and rentals. And perhaps even still a bit of a disc market. And tv rights. (not sure if i saw any merch though) those can and very likely will add another few tens of millions of pure profit - but that will happen over the years, not within the next few months.

 

So, while Dune part 1 does seem to be heading to breaking even,   I'm not sure we have enough data yet to say that it's such a success that investors will say "Oh, that's a great return on my investment! We'll fork over another 200 million right away". Because it's not enough to say to the investor - you'll get your money back. For sure. If not now then in 5 years. What the investor wants to hear is: You'll get at least 30% of profit on your investment, within 3 years.  (I am illustrating the point, of course. Exact figures may differ)

 

But even greater legs than shown now, leading to 150 million in Europe/Russia plus a surprise in China, plus a 100 million in BO in north America  - yeah if all those happen - then part 2 might very well be greenlit just before the end of the year.

 

 

 

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I wouldn't pop the corks yet either but it all must be seen in the context of the pandemic. Sequels have been getting greenlit for movies that were not profitable theatrically. And i'd like to think Dune is a prestige project for WB with awards and growth potential.

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https://deadline.com/2021/04/godzilla-vs-kong-box-office-profit-hbo-max-1234732050/

 

Anyone remember this? AT&T paid Legendary back Legendary's share of the production cost (75% of 165M) of Godzilla vs Kong in order to release it on HBO Max and, therefore, the theatrical break-even point was only 330M worldwide. Surely, sth similar happened with Dune behind the scenes (Legendary also footed 75% of the 165M bill)). So even if Dune cost 165M and another 165M was spent on marketing then it should have a similar break-even point as GvK had.

Edited by DInky
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Not again with the marketing budgets. I don't know if Deadline started this trend of bringing up marketing budgets whenever you want to downplay a movie's success but I'm blaming them.

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8 minutes ago, Joel M said:

Not again with the marketing budgets. I don't know if Deadline started this trend of bringing up marketing budgets whenever you want to downplay a movie's success but I'm blaming them.

 

But that's a real thing you need to take into account...

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1 hour ago, DInky said:

 

But that's a real thing you need to take into account...

Pandemic as well.

 

The movie is heading to 300-350M despite HBO Max and pandemic, it's enough to be one of the biggest movies of the year, this is what trully matter in this context, not the marketing costs.

 

There are talks about this being a possible colossal failure, it's not and it's actually possible that it turn out to be profitable considering Warner probably paid some % of the costs for Legendary because of HBO Max like they did with GxK.

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4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Pandemic as well.

 

The movie is heading to 300-350M despite HBO Max and pandemic, it's enough to be one of the biggest movies of the year, this is what trully matter in this context, not the marketing costs.

 

There are talks about this being a possible colossal failure, it's not and it's actually possible that it turn out to be profitable considering Warner probably paid some % of the costs for Legendary because of HBO Max like they did with GxK.

 

I agree with everything you just said.

 

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Dune 2nd Weekend

 

Russia + CIS - $4.9M + $0.55M - $5.45M / $15.08M + $1.67M - $16.75M

France - $5.4M / $15.4M

Germany - $3.36M / $10.14M

Italy - $1.65M / $5.17M

Spain - $1.44M / $4.92M

Taiwan - $0.82M / $3.18M

Netherland - $0.99M / $2.84M

Ukraine - $0.84M / $2.54M

Denmark - $0.9M / $2.4M

Hong Kong - $0.65M / $2.26M

Sweden - $0.7M / $2.1M

Norway - $0.52M / $2.02M

Switzerland - $0.53M / $1.51M

Austria - $0.41M / $1.35M

Finland - $0.44M / $1.32M

Belgium - $0.35M / $1.28M

Singapore - $0.35M / $1.05M

KSA - $0.97M

UAE - $0.93M

Middle East - $0.75M

Baltics - $0.18M / $0.57M

Iceland - $0.04M / $0.17M

 

Total - $27.65M / $79.62M

 

The official numbers are $77.8M. There is around $2M difference in last reported France numbers. A minor difference other than that exists as well, but waiting for actuals for the Italic markets.

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Yes, all eyes are on Bond - for the moment. It gets 830 copies (the highest number since 6 years) and incredible 23 shows on Thursday (and 29 on Saturday) e.g. in the mathäser and the weekend reservations look pretty good (but still not through the roof).
The predictions are around 1M admissions OW; it's very hard to estimate with so many shows and still restrictions and possible strong walk-ups.

But there's hope for Dune because the first NTTD reviews aren't very good. Especially some well known movie websites aren't convinced: It says "great action but too long and sometimes boring, lack of chemistry between D. Craig and L. Seydoux". We will see if the audience is also a bit disappointed. I clearly hoped for better reviews for Bond but OTOH this could help other films in the next weeks, especially Dune.

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2 hours ago, el sid said:

Yes, all eyes are on Bond - for the moment. It gets 830 copies (the highest number since 6 years) and incredible 23 shows on Thursday (and 29 on Saturday) e.g. in the mathäser and the weekend reservations look pretty good (but still not through the roof).
The predictions are around 1M admissions OW; it's very hard to estimate with so many shows and still restrictions and possible strong walk-ups.

But there's hope for Dune because the first NTTD reviews aren't very good. Especially some well known movie websites aren't convinced: It says "great action but too long and sometimes boring, lack of chemistry between D. Craig and L. Seydoux". We will see if the audience is also a bit disappointed. I clearly hoped for better reviews for Bond but OTOH this could help other films in the next weeks, especially Dune.

 

It's interesting that reviews vary from country to country. UK is over the moon, Germany not so much, US is somewhere in between, but all agree that Craig and Seydoux have no chemsitry. It's baffling that they are the OTP of the franchise. 

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40 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

It's interesting that reviews vary from country to country. UK is over the moon, Germany not so much, US is somewhere in between, but all agree that Craig and Seydoux have no chemsitry. It's baffling that they are the OTP of the franchise. 

UK critics were always going to love this. Definitely gonna be pretty mixed outside of the UK, especially with that ending.

 

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