Dune OS Thread: DESERT POWER 400.2M WW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (292.3M OS)

[Valonqar]

Fair enough. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still happy that Dune is doing better somewhere! 

[ThomasNicole]

I can't believe the SC discussion reach this thread too. It's the second Dune thread in less than 24 hours that i enter expecting updates and find discussion minimizing SC performance, idk why to be honest.

 

SC didn't have China and Marvel strongest markets (LATAN and Asia) is currently in complicated situation. Still it's going to finish with around 420M, something that Dune probably won't get close (for other reasons, but still). I think this odd comparisson needs to leave Dune threads.

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

 

that answers my question. Exactly what I thought when I said it didn't have NTTD/BP effect (but it could have had). People liked Tony Leung. But he wasn't the lead. 

More of because of lack of competition (Dune is a weak IP in Asia literally 0 hype) / first MCU film exclusively on the big screen / decent WoM.

 

you can have Leung front and Center as the main character but if it is not an MCU film or bad WoM, it would have tanked. Leung has never been a box office draw - check out box office of his films over the past 10 yrs, better yet you can wait and see how his next film (The Golden Finger) does.

 

like what Charlie has said many times, MCU is not dependent on star power of its actors, and that is the strength of the brand

 

Anyway on Dune - it is grossing close to SC in Taiwan despite all factors above. 

Edited October 5, 2021 by TigerPaw

[Valonqar]

Eh, after months and months of enduring Dune-will-bomb nonsense, when all signs pointed at healthy interest even with WB release fuck-up, can't I have 2 days of gloating that Dune beat a bigger brand (yes, Marvel is a bigger brand even with Z listers which they comfortably made successful) in 4-5 marklets out of 200? It ends now with this post but just so you know - it felt good! 

Edited October 5, 2021 by Valonqar

[titanic2187]

On 10/4/2021 at 12:22 AM, Felipe said:

 

Seem like DHL updated the breakdown as below. So it is confirmed the adjustment mostly came from France.   

Quote

 

The Top 5 markets to date are France ($21.2M), Russia ($18.1M), Germany ($13.4M), Spain ($7M) and Italy ($6.7M).

 

The total IMAX cume is now $10M, repping 11% of the total international box office. Up next for the Denis Villeneuve-directed film is Japan on October 15. After that, Dune heads to Korea on October 20 and North America and China on October 22.

 

 

[dudalb]

Many people here can't see the forest for the trees, I don't think Dune is pulling the kind of numbers that will put it in the black .

I am not happy about this, as a huge fan of the first three Frank Herbert novels ( a lot less so abut Herbert's novels after "Children of Dune" and the less said about his son's efforts the better) and am hoping that the Third's time a charm for "Dune" (after two previious failures..the 1984 movie and the late 90's TV miniseries) but I have problems seeing Part 2 being greenlit if Part One fails to get into profit. No way you can do Part 2 on the cheap the way you can with some sequels;if anything, the effects would be more expensive with some massive battles happening.

Ah, well, I will always have the novels, and if you are left cliffhanging by "Dune" you can always read the novel.

[Valonqar]

Hollywood accounting leaves everyone in the red ha ha so it really doesn't matter. 

 

I don't expect Dune to be in the black thanks to HBO Max but the studio can see the interest in the IP so Pt 2 should do very well. I suspect they want to make Messiah, Children and maybe God Emperor since they are Atreides Saga and Duncan Idaho becomes a big player. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Dune Part 2 is happening, the numbers are definitely fairly strong and so there will be a convincing argument to give this another shot with a (near) simultaneous worldwide release and theatrical exclusive run, especially with the strong WOM could see some good sequel growth. There is a bit of leeway wrt profits given that Covid isn't over, and especially given that this is an HBO Max release. 

Edited October 5, 2021 by Menor

[lorddemaxus]

I mean if fucking Jungle Cruise is getting a sequel merely due to a DOM overperformance, there's no way this isn't.

Edited October 5, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Valonqar]

Totally. Good growth for the sequel, which will be more action-y given the source. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Sequel is no brainer at this moment. Besides, its Legendary who will greenlit sequel right? not WB.

[Eduardo]

56 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sequel is no brainer at this moment. Besides, its Legendary who will greenlit sequel right? not WB.

Nothing positive from Jatinder.

[eridani]

Dune could theoretically be in the black, depending on exact expenses and distribution of income even just on the box office sales, not counting the HBO factor or any later streaming/digital/disc rental/tv rights.

After 3 weekends it did 66.4 million in five big territories of France, Russia, Germany, Spain and Italy.
Lets take BR2049 for comparison. After 3 weekends that film did 39.4 million.
Total BR2049 run in those five territories was 48.7 million.

So at the very least, even not accounting for longer legs, Dune should do  22% better than the current result. So 81 million in those countries. Of course, longer legs are evident so even the future weeks should enjoy them. 85 or even close to 90 million is plausible in those 5 countries. Those 5 countries are somewhat representative of the rest of the world, without NA and East Asia/Australia countries.

 

Now lets take Taiwan and Kong Kong. As representative of East Asia and Australia.
There, after 3 weeks Dune has 3.7 million in Taiwan and 2.6 million in HK.

While BR2049 is somewhat indicative, I will use another film for those markets for comparison. Godzilla v kong. While godzilla v kong performned abysmally in europe, and Dune is far, far outstripping it. GvK did well in Asia. I don't think using only GvK as being fair, as it's a different type of movie. But Dune is being marketed as dumb SF spectacle in Asia, it is marketed by Legendary affiliates in China (just with GvK) So for China and SK and Japan something in between of BR2049 and GvK results might be comparable. While Australia might skew more towards BR2049 numbers than GvK numbers.

 

We are already seeing that Dune is playing differently in Taiwain and HK than in the case of BR2049. BR had total of 1.8 million in Taiwain and 1.35 million in HK. So even after 3 weeks, it's doing twice as good. 

Of course, GvK is a different beast so Dune probably won't reach GvKs 12.6 million in Taiwan though it might reach GvK's 4.5 million in HK. Still, legs are great there. in HK, its second weeked was a bit higher than the first. In taiwan, it opened to 1.3 million and now after 3rd weekend it's at 3.7 million. At its current trajectory it should be able to squeeze out a further million. so 4.7 million or so.

HK, as it's dropping VERY little, it an unknown. It should reach 4 million. But it could also go over 5 million. As far as i understand, legendary's affiliates are also distributing the film in HK, just as they will do in China.

Onto South Korea. total Gvk run there was 6 million. BR2049 run was 2.4 million.
Japan had Gvk run at 16.3 million. BR run at 10.5 million.
Australia had Gvk at 21.4 million. BR at 10.2 million.

 

Given how Dune is performing in 5 european countries (on course to do 75% better) and how it's performing in HK and Taiwan (100% better) compared to BR2049
I'd say minimum run in South Korea should be 4.8 million.
Japan with 20 million.
China with at least 27 million (2,5 times over BR in Taiwan)
And australia with 20 million.

 

Though the GvK factor might also be seen in SK, Japan and even more likely in China. (sort of mimicking to some extent the currently visible HK Dune performance)

 

Now, doubling Gvk in those countries would lead to 12 million in SK, 32 million in Japan and 43 million in Australia for Dune. Not to mention that GvK did 188 million in China. Of course such figures are unatainable. So Dune will likely NOT reach those figures.
But even reaching half way between BR2049 and Gvk figures would yield:
8 million for SK
26 million for Japan
31 million for Australia (though likely less, as it's more inclined to play out like BR2049)

 

China is a big wildcard and the BR's equivalent performance adjusted  of 23 million is probably the very bottom. But what if it plays out more like in Hong Kong? Then a 3.5 times bigger figure over BR2049 might be possible. That might be 38 million. And that's not even considering at least a partial comparison with GvK. So... I'd say China is really impossible to predict but anything from 40 million to 100 million would not surprise me.

 

BR2049 did 129.4 in all the countries without north america, china, hk, taiwan, australia, sk, japan.  in russia, germany, france, italy and spain it did 48.7 million. So to get from the current 5-coutnry prediction of 85 million for Dune, to the rest of the world (without NA and asia) we need to adjust the gross by 2.6 times. So gross in all the coutnries without NA and asia for dune is then 221 million.

As said, the australia/east asia countries might add:
9 million in HK/Taiwan
8 million for SK
26 million for Japan
25? million for Australia
and anything from 40 to 100 million in china.

 

Which leaves US and Canada. But given the HBO factor, it's impossible to say how much it's gonna earn there. Will HBO and pandemic take half its theoretical earnings? BR49 did 92 million. So if that was the benchmark half of that would be just 46 million. But is Interstellar a better fit? Or GvK? Who knows. Arrival? Still, at this point I have to have a number so i'll go with 50 to 100 million.

 

Which gives us the grand total of:
40 to 100 for china
50 to 100 for NA
70 for HK/SK/TW/JP/Aus
221 for rest of the world.

So we're at 380 to 490 million.

Of course, not all countries pay out equally. Overseas distirbutor cut is closer to 55%. China is at 75%. Domestic theaters are closer to 45%.
27.5 to 55 for NA
10 to 25 for China
131 for rest of the world.
For a total of 169 to 211 million.

 

Now, if the dune production budget is indeed 165 million and if its marketing buget is not over 45 million, then Dune has some chance of going into profit from BO alone. Of course, that's the high end of the estimate. Plus it assumes a fairly small marketing budget. So it's more likely BO alone will not cover all the expenses. On the other hand, HBO is worth a lot. I don't know what the original deal betwen WB and lengendary was - perhaps WB was to retain complete NA BO sales in return for its 25% of the budget (and likely all of the marketing costs)

 

Now, IF legendary isn't paying for marketing and if it's paying only for 75% of the 165 million budget and getting to retain all BO sales outside NA, then we're at 124 million of expense versus 141 million to 156 million of profit.  Of course, by that logic the WB might be getting the shaft at having to fork out possibly 90+ million for production/marketing. While retaining 55% of the NA box office and nearly 100% of HBO sales. So depending on how many new subscribers HBO will see - it may work out for WB as well.

 

It's pretty close to breaking even, i'd say, with BO and HBO alone. But will the 10% or 20% of profit within a year be enough for the investors to greenlight part 2 - is another matter.
 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Part Two simply won't get made unless hell freezes over and this movie is a big hit in the States. Alita also did decently internationally, but it bombed in the US, so no sequel for you!

Spoiler

And no Edward Norton as Nova either!

Believe me, I would love to be proven wrong. But do you really think the GA will want to go out of their way to see a seemingly slow-burn, artsy movie based on a book they haven't read in a theater? They'll simply either skip it, or watch it from the comfort of their homes after seeing the word of mouth from the fans.

Edited October 6, 2021 by BadOlCatSylvester

[lorddemaxus]

17 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Part Two simply won't get made unless hell freezes over and this movie is a big hit in the States. Alita also did decently internationally, but it bombed in the US, so no sequel for you!

  Reveal hidden contents

And no Edward Norton as Nova either!

Believe me, I would love to be proven wrong. But do you really think the GA will want to go out of their way to see a seemingly slow-burn, artsy movie based on a book they haven't read in a theater? They'll simply either skip it, or watch it from the comfort of their homes after seeing the word of mouth from the fans.

You've gotta be ignorant and borderline delusional to be saying this considering the numbers we're seeing on here and in the tracking thread. Even if the film is gonna flop domestic (which it won't), Alita comp doesn't even make sense. That film made 1/3rd of its box-office in China.

[vale900]

this is gonna make at least 350M on a 165m budget.

It's gonna take a lot of oscar nominations. 

Rewiews are good and word of mouth was excellent everywhere.

 Everything is  at the right place to have an increase of audience for a part II, especially in an era (we can hope) without pandemic like for the first movie.

 

Edited October 6, 2021 by vale900

[Valonqar]

 @eridani Great analysis! 

 

@BadOlCatSylvester What does Alita have to do with Dune? Alita wasn't Part 1. Alita wasn't an awards player. Alita wasn't from the same studio and different studios treat their IPs differently. Alita wasn't forced to go on streaming due to pandemic, so different market situation too. You are just trying to build a case against Part 2 and it doesn't hold. 

 

@lorddemaxus and @vale900 hear hear! 

 

Pt 2 is happening. Studio would lose more if it didn't make it cause all signs point at growth and big success if it was made. 

[TigerPaw]

14 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 @eridani Great analysis! 

 

@BadOlCatSylvester What does Alita have to do with Dune? Alita wasn't Part 1. Alita wasn't an awards player. Alita wasn't from the same studio and different studios treat their IPs differently. Alita wasn't forced to go on streaming due to pandemic, so different market situation too. You are just trying to build a case against Part 2 and it doesn't hold. 

 

@lorddemaxus and @vale900 hear hear! 

 

Pt 2 is happening. Studio would lose more if it didn't make it cause all signs point at growth and big success if it was made. 

To be honest; all is in its favour (WoM, buzz, release date - recovery in Europe) other than HBO max release. 😑

[charlie Jatinder]

Box office isn't sole criteria for this one to get sequel or anything in these times. When it is announced for HBO Max, they know box office will take a hit, so there will be internal target, which might not even have film be profitable in pre-Covid sense.

[solaris]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Box office isn't sole criteria for this one to get sequel or anything in these times. When it is announced for HBO Max, they know box office will take a hit, so there will be internal target, which might not even have film be profitable in pre-Covid sense.

100% this. WB will have factored in an HBO Max impact, and will have knowingly sacrificed a % of BO in return for potential subscriptions. I think it's still to early to call as so many key territories are yet to open, but these first three weekends have been encouraging for the prospects of a sequel. I think $360-$380 feels like a likely WW finish - respectable given the circumstances and sets the scene for a solid increase for part 2 (fingers crossed)