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SHANG CHI SECOND WEEKEND THREAD: 35.8M (-53%), DILF Leung Conquers #1 Spot | Free Guy 5.8, Malignant 5.6, Candyman 4.9, Jungle Cruise 2.4, Card Counter 1.1

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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

BW is getting smoked by SC and it isn't just because of PA. Reaction to SC is much better which explains great holds dom and OS. BW would have cratered without PA except that OW would have been bigger.  SC still holds 8.0 on IMDB, while BW is at 6.8. Even if SC goes down with more votes it won't drop below 7.5. But overall wherever you turn reactions are much better for SC. 

 

If you think Black Widow would have dropped 68% 2nd weekend domestic and had abysmal international splits without PA then I have a bridge over the river kwai I'd like to sell you

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42 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The worst part is that they're about to do it again.

 

I doubt Cry Macho cost less than 40-50M and it's a f-ckin Clint Eastwood movie, even then WB is dumping it.

 

I wonder how much Warner give to Wan and Clint to avoid another Nolan situation, what they're doing doesn't show any respect for the talents.

Its so true. I just went back through Wan and Clint's filmographies. Wan gave WB the highest grossing DCEU movie and one of (if not the) most successful horror franchise of all time and there is an argument to be made that Clint is the adult-skewing BO king. Both directors have been (and still are) some of the most bankable and consistent directors in Hollywood, and the studio is totally bungling the release of their movies back to back. Regardless of the current circumstances, its a damn shame

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1 hour ago, Menor said:

Spider-Man has a lot of things going for it. Insane hype (shown in trailer views), December, and importantly Spidey plays well with younger diverse audiences who have been driving the BO recently. 

And with news of a kiddie vaccine ready to be approved by the end of October apparently, it should gain a substantial chunk of its normal audience. I really think that it could also challenge 500m if everything goes right, maybe even 600m.

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1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

The worst part is that they're about to do it again.

 

I doubt Cry Macho cost less than 40-50M and it's a f-ckin Clint Eastwood movie, even then WB is dumping it.

 

I wonder how much Warner give to Wan and Clint to avoid another Nolan situation, what they're doing doesn't show any respect for the talents.

Disney is showing lately a lot more respect for Pixar,of course...

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Just now, efialtes76 said:

Disney is showing lately a lot more respect for Pixar,of course...

And? Nobody is talking about Disney WTF, they're not the ones dumping movies this weekend.

 

But since you bring them, yes, they also is being terrible to Pixar and make dumb decisions, like i said many times when the movie was released Luca would easily get +150M DOM with the reception it gets if they didn't use to keep subscribers interested in D+.

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55 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

If you guys think box office is already back to normal than ERC was right to compare Shang-Chi's opening to other pre-pandemic Marvel movies?

It depends on what movies though ...even pre covid i would suspect that shang shi would be a movie that at least dom speakin wouldnt be a 300 mill grosser but neither a 180 mill grosser.Based on others predictions that i saw when the movie first announced most people were saying a dom total of 200-250  and it will come at that range....

 

 

Ps the ow to me doesnt matter what matters is the final dom total

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1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

If you guys think box office is already back to normal than ERC was right to compare Shang-Chi's opening to other pre-pandemic Marvel movies?

Box office is NOT back to normal. Shang Chi's decent performance by pre-covid standards does not mean the box office is magically back to normal, and arguments about what people THINK the film would have made pre-covid in order to justify why the box office is back are, all due respect, unfounded (I'm looking at you Scott Mendelson). So are arguments that Shang Chi was hardly affected but most other films were. All movies are still being hit. Aside from box office numbers, infection rates and surveys on moviegoing, studios have far more data on audience behavior than we do, if we were fully back in business the question of day+date vs theatrical exclusive would be over. This is important to keep in mind as the fall's stacked slate kicks off, let's keep our expectations realistic and not jump on the next tentpole just because it doesnt do Shang Chi numbers

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2 hours ago, 4815162342 said:

 

If you think Black Widow would have dropped 68% 2nd weekend domestic and had abysmal international splits without PA then I have a bridge over the river kwai I'd like to sell you

 

It would. WOM wasn't strong at all. PA is now a good excuse for disappointment but SC would have passed BW either way because of much better WOM. 

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9 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

It would. WOM wasn't strong at all. PA is now a good excuse for disappointment but SC would have passed BW either way because of much better WOM. 

Not really bw receptions seem on par with antman 2 that would mean a 61 drop

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19 minutes ago, john2000 said:

Not really bw receptions seem on par with antman 2 that would mean a 61 drop

 

Ant Man franchise is family friendly. Big difference. Anyway, we won't agree and we will never know. What's done is done and SC wins this one. 

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Shang Chi is a Z-list character who opened over Labor Day, are we sure that this isn't the normal box office total it would have had? The box office def not fully back but I don't think Shang is the best example - the better example is that the films 5-10 are much lower than weekends in years past. 

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3 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Piracy probably destroyed this movie foreign, everyone i known was interested in it because of good WOM but all of them watched illegally.

I wonder how many rented it in D+ though? That's how I watched it

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1 hour ago, john2000 said:

It depends on what movies though ...even pre covid i would suspect that shang shi would be a movie that at least dom speakin wouldnt be a 300 mill grosser but neither a 180 mill grosser.Based on others predictions that i saw when the movie first announced most people were saying a dom total of 200-250  and it will come at that range....

 

 

Ps the ow to me doesnt matter what matters is the final dom total

I didnt expect Captain Marvel to gross 300m yet it cleared 400m and shattered 1b WW. I didn't expect black panther to make more than Civil War but it made a mind boggling 700m domestically. Noone expected GOTG to be the Highest grossing CBM of its year but it did. Noone expected Endgame to become the highest grossing movie of all time but it did. 

 

It's very probable people lowballed this too

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Just now, Chicago said:

I didnt expect Captain Marvel to gross 300m yet it cleared 400m and shattered 1b WW. I didn't expect black panther to make more than Civil War but it made a mind boggling 700m domestically. Noone expected GOTG to be the Highest grossing CBM of its year but it did. Noone expected Endgame to become the highest grossing movie of all time but it did. 

 

It's very probable people lowballed this too

indeed ...however and thats not very accurate at all...the online discussion and the trailer views etc were never in captain marvels level.... but hey what happened ...happened...we will never hope,happy its doing well

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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

 

It would. WOM wasn't strong at all. PA is now a good excuse for disappointment but SC would have passed BW either way because of much better WOM. 

 

Whether or not SC would pass BW DOM or WW is irrelevant, what's relevant is the effect PA had on repeat business, new business, international business, etc.

 

Let's engage with the following hypothetical:

 

1) Family of 4, instead of going to the theater and spending $12 a ticket, does PA for Black Widow and pays a flat fee of $30. Ok, we have less money then and there. $30 to PA instead of $48 in tickets. Net loss of $18.

 

2) Family likes Black Widow and rewatches it the following weekend when they have time. Now, in normal land, they would go back to theaters and spend another $48 to see it again. But, once you get BW on PA, it is free to watch again, and again, and again. So they spend $0. Net loss of $48. Ok, let's assume only one parent and one kid like it, so only they would spend money to go see it again. Still net loss of $24 in weekend 2.

 

3) Family shares their Disney+ account with other people. Which is a thing. My family's D+ account gets shared across three households, for example. So, people outside of that family, who might go see BW in theaters at some point, don't, plus their repeat business gets lost as well. It all adds up.

 

4) Increased piracy. @CJ Sarandos or others from abroad can better speak to this then I, but my understanding for Europe, etc. is that D+ has dramatically increased piracy, torrents, etc., especially in places where 1) D+ is not readily available and 2) COVID is still running fairly strong with various restriction/lockdown/safety measures. I can't say how much effect or impact it has country to country, other people much better informed than you or I can speak to that, but it ain't zero or de minimis. Plus, there's a lot more people impacted worldwide than just in the US, which is why Black Widow has a 49/51 split. My bet is you have to go all the way back to Captain America 1 to find a domestic/overseas split that poor for a MCU film.

 

 

So, put it all together, and Shang-Chi has the benefit of 1) No impact to upfront OW business from PA purchase, 2) No impact to repeat business from PA repeats/sharing/etc., and 3) No impact in the form of increased high-quality torrents/piracy available from Day 1 that allow people to circumvent theaters AND PA. Can we say how much money ends up being lost in the US and abroad because of this? No, but to handwave it away and say Shang-Chi beats Widow no matter what is blind, foolish, and frankly ignorant of how everything in the movie media market works.

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