SHANG CHI SECOND WEEKEND THREAD: 35.8M (-53%), DILF Leung Conquers #1 Spot | Free Guy 5.8, Malignant 5.6, Candyman 4.9, Jungle Cruise 2.4, Card Counter 1.1

[grey ghost]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

VOD and physical home video. Black Widow is going to sell like shit there like the other Disney PA/streaming releases have.

 

Yeah but I think Shang Chi will be free on Disney Plus in October. 

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

So 500m WW instead of 375m WW?

 

1) We don't know if the global revenue would increase that much.

 

2) BW's PA makes up the difference.

 

I'm not arguing against theater exclusives but I don't think the difference is that big for Disney between PA and theatrical exclusive.

 

 

we do actually if black widow had a normal multi from thursday to the rest of the weekend we would get an ow of 90-100 and thats just dom....at the same time in the overseas markets there wouldnt be boycotts from major theater chains and the overall multi would be again better for an os of again 90-100 ....after that lets say that we apply normal summer legs for this movie (the reception wasnt worse than antman 2 so i wouldnt expect way worse legs) and then we get 500-550 mill sans china...if we also then add china where the movie could actually have released there if disney  took the chance when they could then add again another 150-200 mill so overall you have a finish of 650-750 mill from theatrical alone...that would mean that black widow would have broke even and probably have some decent profit....THEN also add to that the dvd release etc and there you go....

[Cap]

@Porthos I have a parking lot report. We are all fulll!!

 

and this matters cause I am at the Drive In seeing Free Guy/Shang Chi

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, Cap said:

@Porthos I have a parking lot report. We are all fulll!!

 

and this matters cause I am at the Drive In seeing Free Guy/Shang Chi

Good. Get it to $100M tonight.

 

It = Free GUY

[charlie Jatinder]

No need to celebrate fellas. Remember Black Widow has to face Space Jam 2 while Shang Chi has open market to itself. That is only reason FRI is better than BW, nothing to do with anything else.

 

[Fox20]

He is trying extremely hard and that is why it looks so pathetic, it's not just being contrarian he has a comment for everything, he lost all common sense.

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

No need to celebrate fellas. Remember Black Widow has to face Space Jam 2 while Shang Chi has open market to itself. That is only reason FRI is better than BW, nothing to do with anything else.

 

He is not wrong about the empty market Shang-Chi has until Venom. This weekend's drop isn't particularly great either. But BW and Shang-Chi will never be fully comparable because we will never know if BW would have done more without PA or if Shang-Chi would have done less with PA.

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

No need to celebrate fellas. Remember Black Widow has to face Space Jam 2 while Shang Chi has open market to itself. That is only reason FRI is better than BW, nothing to do with anything else.

 

ERC is just giving Space Jam the proper respect it deserves for its occupancy stats  

 

 

[Legion Again]

Also of course the Fri comp is still very skewed by school vs summer. 9.7 vs 8 there is some window for spin, it’s “just” 20% over.

 

15.5 vs 10.5…

Edited September 12, 2021 by Legion of the Ten Crores

[Jamiem]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

No need to celebrate fellas. Remember Black Widow has to face Space Jam 2 while Shang Chi has open market to itself. That is only reason FRI is better than BW, nothing to do with anything else.

 

Disney already decided that the rest of the year is theatrical exclusive for their slate, why is he quadrupling down still. 

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, CJ Sarandos said:

He is not wrong about the empty market Shang-Chi has until Venom. This weekend's drop isn't particularly great either. But BW and Shang-Chi will never be fully comparable because we will never know if BW would have done more without PA or if Shang-Chi would have done less with PA.

In a perfect conditions, SC would be no match to BW for first 10-14 days despite BW being trash and SC being loved.

 

The fact SC is scoring over BW is the L to the day and date streaming model.

 

 

Edited September 12, 2021 by charlie Jatinder

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In a perfect conditions, SC would be no match to BW for first 10-14 days despite BW being trash and SC being loved.

 

 

This can't be proved and we will never know. I can say I think they would end up far closer than you think because I still don't know why would anyone care about the BW movie considering it is literally a dead character walking with a dumb ending hurting WOM. Shang-Chi would have probably done 240-250M in a normal market considering what is doing right now against COVID and streaming forces. BW would have done maybe 270M, if I had to throw a random number around.

Edited September 12, 2021 by CJ Sarandos

[Legion Again]

Without PA BW is a clear 100+ OW weekend for likely 40-45 ballpark 2nd weekend, perhaps falling behind SC on 3rd weekend.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, CJ Sarandos said:

This can't be proved and we will never know. I can say I think they would end up far closer than you think because I still don't know why would anyone care about the BW movie considering it is literally a dead character walking with a dumb ending hurting WOM. Shang-Chi would have probably done 240-250M in a normal market considering what is doing right now against COVID and streaming forces. BW would have done maybe 270M, if I had to throw a random number around

I totally agree with 270 for BW, its within my range of 270-300, but BW would be close to $180-200M in its first 10 days as compared to $144M of SC.

[Legion Again]

240-250 in a normal market implies ~0 effect from the million cases per week. Perhaps true, but at the very least rather bold.

Edited September 12, 2021 by Legion of the Ten Crores

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I totally agree with 270 for BW, its within my range of 270-300, but BW would be close to $180-200M in its first 10 days as compared to $144M of SC.

Shang-Chi would always be a more leggy hit for sure.

 

Hopefully the Saturday DELIVERS. I want a strong number for a 35M weekend.

[OncomingStorm93]

The funniest thing about ERC is that ER stands for “Exhibitor Relations”.

 

I wonder how the Exhibitor’s he’s spent his Twitter career “relating” feel about his newfound proclivity for PVOD revenue…

[ThomasNicole]

Hoping for 15.5M SAT

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Shang-Chi's BO performance is ERC's villain origin story

[lorddemaxus]

Malignant deserves to be seen in the most crowded screening possible. Not a movie I should be watching with just 3 other people there. Fuck WB for dumping this so hard. At least it's one of the few new movie releases that won't be forgotten for a long time.