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Gavin Feng

Weekend Thread: Dear Evan Hansen $800K THU Previews

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DL prediction:

 

$11-12M for Shang-Chi

 

~$10M for Dear Evan Hansen

 

Quote

The movie directed by Stephen Chbosky, and starring the musical’s original actor Ben Platt in the title role, is expected to make around $10M at 3,364 theaters, and is expected to be beat by Disney/Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings in its fourth weekend with $11M-$12M. As we told you this morning, Shang-Chi is becoming the highest grossing movie during the pandemic at the domestic B.O. today, clicking past Disney/Marvel’s own Black Widow which counts $183.4M through yesterday.

 

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2 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It doesn't bold well for WSS in dec

Eh, I mean I think WSS looks like ass but that's a very, very popular show with a great release date and legendary director. Nobody really knows Dear Evan Hansen like that except theater kids and half of them hate it.

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5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Following ITH would mean a 4M Full Friday. I guess it will hit 10M?

 

True, but give it Heights' IM and that barely puts it over $9m. I do think it has a higher Thursday share of its Friday (the Thursday opening wasn't well promoted for Heights) but also lower drops on Saturday.

 

Best Case Scenario: 4 + 3.8 + 2.7 = $10.5m

Worst Case Scenario: 3 + 2.7 + 1.8 = $7.5m

 

I think it'll fall in the middle and we see a $9m opening.

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12 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

It doesn't bold well for WSS in dec

It's Spielberg and the musical has already produced one classic movie adaptation (it's well-established at this point not every stage musical translates to the big screen). At worst, it'll be watchable if unnecessary. 

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Dear Evan Hansen has a 28M budget. A 8-10 M first weekend in pandemic is like.. good.

 

I don't know why this shoud be a flop when 28.5M for free guy on a 115M budget was "encorauging".

It's a good debut, let'see if audience like it. On RT it has a 92% audience score.

Edited by vale900
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Fucking shocked this isn't hitting 10M OW. SHOCKED. Just not really.

 

Who in their right fucking mind would go out of their houses to see this in theaters with all the entertainement available at home in the middle of a fucking pandemic?

Edited by CJ Sarandos
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The marketing for West Side Story has honestly been very weird so far. The big selling point on the show is the romance and the music/dancing, and the trailers have been really coy with that stuff. I understand the romance issue since Ansel Elgort's a piece of shit (believe survivors), but it just seems odd that there's little in the way of singing and what little we have for like instrumental pieces that could be used to tug on the nostalgia heartstrings is underwhelming at best (a minimalist "Tonight" is nice, but not pump-worthy) or nonexistent at worst.

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27 minutes ago, JWR said:

How much did In the Heights make in its previews?

Approx. 1M according to Deadline.

 

9 minutes ago, vale900 said:

Dear Evan Hansen has a 28M budget. A 8-10 M first weekend in pandemic is like.. good.

 

I don't know why this shoud be a flop when 28.5M for free guy on a 115M budget was "encorauging".

It's a good debut, let'see if audience like it. On RT it has a 92% audience score.

Yeah, given there isn't a streaming component to DEH, it should match its budget domestically. The gross will really just reinforce how risky it is to adapt a Broadway show to film.

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35 minutes ago, vale900 said:

Dear Evan Hansen has a 28M budget. A 8-10 M first weekend in pandemic is like.. good.

 

I don't know why this shoud be a flop when 28.5M for free guy on a 115M budget was "encorauging".

It's a good debut, let'see if audience like it. On RT it has a 92% audience score.

92% on opening night isn't exactly great, that too with this low opening. Having seen the film, the lead is blech. The film is sort of ok.

 

As for Free Guy being encouraging. Box office success and financial success could be different. A film should do well at box office to be a box office HIT while it can be a financial success without box office success. Production budget isn't really that big a deal in recovering with streaming and other ancillary revenue at disposal of film. A film should start with recovering its release cost, which for say 4000+ sites release is about same, no matter if the production budget is $150M or $50M.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Ooof that’s pretty rough. I guess I they can hope for is good WOM (which is questionable). Maybe they can salvage 10M weekend and 30M total? But with how packed October is, they’re going to have a hard time holding onto screens.

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